Super Bowl LVIII Player Prop Bets: Mahomes, Purdy, and More

While player prop bets have become commonplace in the NFL since the advent of online sportsbooks, the Super Bowl is the OG of the prop bet. What was one time a year we could bet on the minutia of what the first play would be, how many yards a quarterback would pass for, or how many touchdowns a star running back would get is now something we can enjoy several times a week.

But with two weeks leading up to the big game and the Super Bowl still being the most popular sporting event in the United States, props are still a big part of the betting experience. And there is no shortage of props to wager on.

We’re pouring over the literally hundreds of potential wagers out there to give our best shots for the Super Bowl player prop bets.

Much has been made of Brock Purdy going from “Mr. Irrelevant” as the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft to Super Bowl quarterback. And while he’s been called a “system quarterback,” the same was often said about Tom Brady, who won seven Super Bowls.

Regardless, Purdy is here and no doubt takes advantage of the plethora of weapons at his disposal. Having Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle would make plenty of quarterbacks smile. As a result, Purdy has completed a pass of at least 38 yards in 12 of his 18 starts this year.

Conveniently, DraftKings is offering a Super Bowl prop bet on Purdy’s longest completion, with the over-under number being set at 37.5 (over is -105). In the NFC Championship, Purdy completed this 51-yard hook up to Aiyuk in dramatic fashion.

In addition to Aiyuk’s heroics, who had a reception of over 40 yards in five games this year, Samuel also had a catch of over 40 yards in five games this season. Kittle did it four times and McCaffrey once. Purdy has a lot of options to make it happen and the history of those doing so lining up alongside him.

The Play: Brock Purdy longest reception OVER 37.5 yards (-105 at DraftKings)

At first glance, the over-under total on Patrick Mahomes’ passing yards looks modest. It sits at 260.5 at BetMGM.

In his two victories — including one over these 49ers four years ago — Mahomes went over this total with ease.

But the 2023 Chiefs are not the same version that terrorized NFL defenses the previous five seasons. In 19 combined regular-season and playoff starts, Mahomes broke the 260-yard mark nine times. He did so once in three playoff games (262 yards vs. Miami). His season numbers were down over 1,000 yards from the previous campaign, and his average sits right at 261 yards.

While Mahomes is still chasing titles, we’re betting he’ll take a win over individual glory. The Chiefs won tough matchups with Buffalo and Baltimore by controlling the time of possession and moving the chains. Kansas City doesn’t need to win by gunslinging anymore. The Niners have also gotten off to slow starts in both of their playoff games, so we don’t believe it’s likely that the Chiefs will fall behind by double-digits and need Mahomes to pass his way out of the mess like he did in KC’s previous two Super Bowl wins.

We’ll stick with passing yards for Mahomes. This bad beat is still too fresh in our minds.

The Play: Patrick Mahomes UNDER 260.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)

SIDELINES SUPER BOWL LVIII COVERAGE

Travis Kelce is used to the spotlight. And while the star tight end has performed well in big games, nothing will be like the coverage he’ll get on Sunday with over 100 million people in the U.S. watching “Taylor Swift’s boyfriend.”

That shouldn’t matter to you, the betting public. What should matter is his consistent production in the postseason.

Kelce has 12 straight playoff games with at least 71 receiving yards. Ironically, the last one was Super Bowl LIV against San Francisco, where he had six catches for 43 yards and a score. Since then, Kelce has become a bigger part of the offense, and it was never as evident as it was in the AFC Championship. He caught all 11 balls that went his way for 116 yards and a score.

Lo and behold, the total to beat here is 70.5 yards.

The Play: Travis Kelce OVER 70.5 receiving yards (-130 at Caesars)