2024 NFL Draft Odds: Player Prop Bets for Round 1

The NFL Draft is typically one of the more difficult sporting events — if you can call it that — to bet on.

Oftentimes, the No. 1 pick is a slam dunk. That’s the case this year with Caleb Williams going to Chicago.

Other times, it’s hard to tune out the noise on what the so-called draft experts say is going to happen. Then there’s mock draft after mock draft.

We tried to cut through the noise to present some solid best bets for round one of the NFL Draft on Thursday.

Now, we’re going to single out specific players and teams to try to narrow down some other selections when it comes to NFL Draft odds.

This is a heck of a draft of quarterbacks. The previous two Heisman Trophy winners are among the top three, along with North Carolina’s Drake Maye, who is 6’4″ and 225 pounds — great attributes for a modern pro quarterback.

In the next crop is J.J. McCarthy, the Michigan quarterback who knows how to win. He’s not flashy, but he was 27-1 over the past two seasons — including a national title — with 44 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also isn’t afraid to run the ball and is lauded for his leadership ability.

The problem (or the fun thing, depending on your perspective) about this wager is all of the things that could happen before the top three QBs on the board go.

If there are no trades at Nos. 4 or 5, the next spot where McCarthy could land to a QB-needy team is the New York Giants. But there are plenty of non-QBs that New York could take, plus Daniel Jones is still earning a hefty wage in 2024.

There are also teams in double-digits that are going into the season without a long-term solution under center. They include Minnesota (pick 11), Denver (12), Las Vegas (13), and possibly Seattle (16). The Vikings are a popular rumor-mill item to trade with New England for No. 3, which could leave the Patriots with McCarthy.

As of now, the oddsmakers at FanDuel believe the most likely scenario is that the Giants pass on McCarthy, and he falls to Minnesota at 11 for +170. Next is New England at +380, so there is some credence in the trade rumors. The Giants are third at +450.

We would skip taking the Vikings. There are a lot of teams to get through before McCarthy would go at 11. We think it’s more likely that the Giants scoop him up at No. 6 or the Patriots get him wherever they land after acquiring some picks from Minnesota.

When you consider that there several potential franchise quarterbacks in this draft and a wide receiver (Marvin Harrison Jr.) who compares to Calvin Johnson, this is a heck of a draft class. Now throw in a tight end who is drawing comparisons to George Kittle, and the class is even better.

That’s what’s being said about Georgia tight end Brock Bowers, who is the second-leading pass catcher in Bulldogs history and can block and even run to boot.

At BetMGM, the over-under on Bowers’ draft position is 11.5. There’s odds on the under (-135), but it feels silly that Bowers won’t go in the top 11.

We’ve seen highly graded tight ends come out of college recently and be drafted in the top 10. In fact, there have been three in the past 10 years. The most recent one was Kyle Pitts going fourth overall in 2021.

Could Bowers go to Tennessee at No. 7 or Chicago at No. 9? The New York Jets at No. 10 is a real possibility, as it’s a position of need going into an extremely important season for the Jets. He could slide into New York’s offense under Aaron Rodgers and make a difference right away. We saw Dalton Kincaid and Sam LaPorta do that last year for the Bills and Lions, respectively.

At BetRivers, the NFL Draft odds give an over-under of 4.5 for quarterbacks being drafted in the first round.

We know that four will be a no-brainer. The fifth one is the question mark.

The likely candidates are Bo Nix (of Auburn then Oregon) and Michael Penix Jr. (last seen leading Washington to a 14-0 start and an appearance in the national title game).

We’ve seen teams try to get a borderline first-round quarterback in the second round due to a more team-friendly nature for the salary structure. But in 2017, the Baltimore Ravens traded into the 32nd spot to grab Lamar Jackson, and that move paid off.

The thing that could see this number go over is the amount of teams who could use a quarterback. Assuming that Chicago, Washington, New England, and Minnesota take QBs, that leaves the Giants, Broncos, Seahawks, Las Vegas, and maybe even a surprise team like New Orleans or the Los Angeles Rams at least kicking the tires on a QB. Will one of them get antsy and trade up into the first round to take Nix or Penix? We’re betting on it — literally!