NFL Draft Odds: Best Bets for Thursday’s First Round

After more than two months of talk, combines, mock drafts, leaks, and smokescreens, the NFL Draft is nearly upon us!

This year, Detroit hosts the festivities as the Motor City’s rejuvenation as a football town continues after the hometown Lions reached the NFC Championship game this past season.

The draft typically contains some no-brainers but is also littered with surprises as Thursday’s first round evolves. Remember last year? Then word got out the Houston Texans were going to take Will Anderson instead of a quarterback at No. 2. Houston then took Stroud with the second pick but traded with Arizona for the No. 3 pick to indeed take Anderson.

The Texans were rewarded for this chicanery by getting the NFL Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year and reached the second round of the playoffs. Carolina, meanwhile, took Bryce Young, saw their coach get fired in October, and finished with the worst record in the league. And oh, they traded that pick to Chicago, so the Panthers don’t even get the benefit of finishing last in 2023.

This is an extreme example, but it shows you how fortunes can change — in either direction — come draft night.

You come into the picture by trying to take all of this information that’s out there and make some wagers on the NFL draft odds. We’re here to help with that. Our NFL Draft first-round best bets are on the clock.

There is one certainty in this draft: The Bears will select Caleb Williams at No. 1.

At No. 2, Washington is in desperate need of a quarterback, and they’ll have plenty to choose from.

The question comes with New England at No. 3. While the Patriots need a quarterback, they need a lot of other offensive pieces as well. This is a pick that could be shopped to a similarly QB-needy team. Options include the Minnesota Vikings at No. 11, the Denver Broncos at No. 12, Seattle Seahawks at No. 16, and even possibly the New York Giants at No. 6.

So where does that leave Arizona at No. 4? We know the Cardinals are sticking with Kyler Murray. We also know that the top non-QB in the draft (by far) is Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.

So if the Cardinals select at No. 4, they will take Harrison Jr.

The key word, however, is if.

The Cardinals are in solid position at No. 4 and are “open for business” for that pick. But if a player who compares to Calvin Johnson — who is in the Hall of Fame — and also has a Hall of Famer for a father is at No. 4 and you have a need at wide receiver, you take him.

It’s unlikely Arizona wants to be known as the team that traded down to give Harrison Jr. to another team.

While the option is always a possibility, you can bet on Harrison to be the No. 4 pick at BetMGM with odds of -225. But the key here is that Harrison doesn’t have to go to Arizona to win this bet. The only possibility would be a team jumping into the top-three to take Harrison earlier than No. 4. The odds of that happening seem a lot longer than 2.25 to 1, so there’s good value in this wager than in other top-pick NFL draft odds.

At DraftKings, a prop is available to bet on who will be a top-five pick on Thursday.

Williams is not on the board, and odds are not worth betting on for Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and Harrison Jr.

The question is, who will go at No. 5?

The top contenders are:

As of now, the Los Angeles Chargers own the No. 5 pick. They have a star quarterback in Justin Herbert, so if it’s McCarthy, a trade will be involved.

What the Chargers do not have is a top wide receiver. They had two in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but both have departed. That turns attention to LSU, aka Wide Receiver U, in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. In the past decade, the Tigers have sent the likes of Odell Beckham, Justin Jefferson, and Ja’Marr Chase to the NFL. Nabers and Odunze could be the next two in that impressive pedigree.

Nabers is faster than Odunze, but the latter is three inches taller (6-3) and more physical, which are key attributes for NFL wide outs.

There’s also the option that new Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh takes the type of player he coveted at Michigan. Offensive lineman Joe Alt, who will go along way in protecting Herbert, fits the bill.

Nabers feels like the safe pick, and you should be happy to get him at plus money. But we like Alt with a little bit more of a risk and Odunze for a real low-risk, high-reward wager.