Super Bowl MVP Prop Bets: Mahomes, Purdy, or a Longshot?

The Super Bowl MVP award is commonly thought of as an award that goes to the winning quarterback of the big game. But that’s not necessarily the case. Look at the winners of the past 10 editions of the Super Bowl.

Quarterbacks won the award in six of the previous 10 big games. In the previous 10 years, it was seven out of 10. Going back 10 games before that, it was just four quarterbacks picking up the honor.

Of course, a superstar performance will earn a player the MVP honor, and many times in recent years, the team’s best player has been the quarterback (see Tom Brady winning MVP in five of his seven Super Bowl victories).

So when it comes to betting on Super Bowl MVP prop bets, there are two questions that you need to consider. What are the chances it will be a quarterback or non-QB, and which playmakers besides the quarterback can win on each team.

With that in mind, here are some best bets for the Super Bowl MVP prop bets.

Let’s tackle our first question: Will a quarterback win the award?

At FanDuel, Patrick Mahomes is the favorite at +140, with Brock Purdy next at +200.

With Mahomes, we’re talking about an all-time talent at the quarterback position. He has won MVP in the two Super Bowls that the Chiefs won. We mentioned that Brady won the award in five of his seven wins. Among other legendary QBs with multiple titles, Peyton Manning won one MVP in his two wins, Joe Montana had three MVPs in four wins, and Terry Bradshaw had two MVPs in four victories.

So while likely, it’s not automatic that Mahomes will win the award. But the Chiefs on the moneyline at at +110, and Mahomes for MVP is +140. If you think the Chiefs are going to win, it’s not a huge jump to assume he will be MVP and grab the added value.

To lump in 49ers QB Brock Purdy, you can bet that the MVP will be a quarterback at -250. We’ve seen a quarterback win the MVP award in 60% of the last 10 Super Bowls, so that number isn’t quite in line with that total. We’ll dive into Purdy’s chances in a moment, but for now, we don’t like the odds on taking the QB Super Bowl MVP prop bet if you are of the thinking that the 49ers will be winning the game.

Hitting on the Super Bowl MVP when it’s not a quarterback can lead to a nice payday. Cooper Kupp won at +600 two years ago, while Julian Edleman’s odds for MVP of Super Bowl 53 cashed at +2000.

As we mentioned in our San Francisco prop bets column, it’s hard to overlook Christian McCaffrey. At +440, there’s nice value here if the 49ers end up Super Bowl champions. If an MVP award were given in the Niners’ previous two playoff games, the case could be made that McCaffrey would win for both. He would’ve been more likely to win for scoring twice in the Divisional Round victory over the Packers, but he also scored in the NFC Championship and amassed over 100 combined yards in the win. In fact, McCaffrey has shown to be a playoff machine.

Ironically, Terrell Davis was the last running back win Super Bowl MVP, and that was 26 years ago. But if the Niners are to win, getting better than 4:1 odds on its best player winning MVP is worth a serious look.

SIDELINES SUPER BOWL LVIII COVERAGE

If you’re looking for more of a score than McCaffrey’s +440, here’s a couple quick looks.

Travis Kelce: Let the conspiracy theorists get to work. Kelce winning MVP in front of uber-famous girlfriend Taylor Swift would be storyline heaven. But Kelce has picked things up in the playoffs. He scored twice in the Divisional Round win over Buffalo and would’ve been the MVP of the AFC Championship game if one were given: 11 receptions, 116 yards, and a touchdown catch. Rashee Rice has cooled since his big game in the first round of the playoffs, and Kelce could see the bulk of Mahomes’ big passes. If he gets multiple touchdowns, Kelce could win it at +1700.

Deebo Samuel: At +2500, he has the best odds of any 49er not named Purdy or McCaffrey. In the Super Bowl, expect both head coaches — who are offensive minds — to pull out everything they have in the playbook. That could mean some key runs for Samuel. While he was quiet on the ground in the NFC Championship, he was the leading receiver in the win over Detroit. He hasn’t been as big of a part of the running game since San Francisco acquired McCaffrey midway through the 2022 season, but a key play in the Super Bowl along with being the team’s top wide receiver could be enough to give him top honors.