Chiefs Super Bowl Prop Bets: 3 Wagers for the Big Game

By Chris Hughes   January 30, 2024 

Chiefs Super Bowl Prop Bets: 3 Wagers for the Big Game

Perhaps in no sport but the NFL is previous postseason experience so important. On Sunday, we saw a more explosive Baltimore offense playing at home. The underdog Kansas City Chiefs, despite playing in its first AFC Championship on the road in the Patrick Mahomes era, came in knowing that they were the big dogs that had to be pushed out of the yard.

The Chiefs forced Baltimore into several mental errors, including personal foul penalties and two costly turnovers in the end zone. While Kansas City wasn’t able to generate much on offense, they limited mistakes and dominated the time of possession by close to a 2-to-1 margin.

It all resulted in the higher-seeded Ravens going home after tying their season low for points with 10. The Chiefs drew on their experience and talent to advance to its fourth Super Bowl in the last five seasons. They take on the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada on Sunday, February 11 (6:30 p.m. ET, CBS). Read our 49ers vs. Chiefs best bets to see what we think will happen in the rematch from the big game four years ago. Now, we present three Chiefs Super Bowl prop bets to consider.

CHIEFS SUPER BOWL PROP BETS: Pacheco Will Remain Productive

The 49ers had the third-best rush defense in the NFL this season, allowing 89.7 yards per game. So it may seem like a mystery as to why the Niners have suddenly allowed both Aaron Jones and the combo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs to each surpass the 100-yard mark in the postseason. But when you think about many of the 49ers’ games, they took big leads early and forced teams to pass more while abandoning the run. For example, in blowout wins over Dallas and Philadelphia this season, the Cowboys and Eagles each had less than 50 rushing yards in the game. That greatly helps the Niners’ season-long totals.

Enter Isiah Pacheco, who has been the workhorse behind the Chiefs’ offense in the postseason and part of a three-pronged attack with Mahomes and Travis Kelce.

After breaking the 70-yard mark once in the Chiefs’ first nine games, Pacheco turned things on starting in late November. In five of the last eight games, the second-year pro has five over the 70-yard mark, including two of three in the playoffs. Following 89- and 97-yard efforts against Miami and Buffalo, Pacheco was just short of that mark with 68 yards against Baltimore.

Expect Andy Reid to have noticed what the Packers and Lions did to the Niners on the ground and try to replicate that success with one of his most trusted playmakers.

The Play: Isiah Pacheco OVER 70.5 rushing yards (-110 at DraftKings)

Expect Kelce to Deliver With the Spotlight on Him

In last year’s Super Bowl — the Chiefs’ first season without Tyreek Hill — Travis Kelce caught six balls for 81 yards and a touchdown. You could go in any of those directions for a Kelce prop, but we’re going to look at receptions.

When the stakes are their highest, Mahomes is going to go with the man he’s worked with the longest and trusts the most. In the AFC title game, Mahomes targeted Kelce 11 times. He caught all 11 balls for 116 yards and a score. It was a monster game by the tight end and overcame a Ravens defense that knew he would be featured. He caught five of six balls against Buffalo and seven of 10 passes against Miami.

With a patient Mahomes looking for his top target — and probably with a goal of owning the time of possession against another team with a more explosive offense — expect Kelce to get plenty of opportunities on Super Sunday. The odds are high here, so if you can bump it up by another catch, it’s worthwhile.

The Play: Travis Kelce OVER 6.5 receptions (-150 at Hard Rock Bet)

Love the Chiefs, Especially Early

In our best bets column, we expressed confidence in the Chiefs winning the game — and had even more faith with the +2 spread. On the moneyline, the Chiefs are +105 to win the Lombardi Trophy. But why sweat it out for 60 minutes when you can cash in after 15?

We scored on the Chiefs at +0.5 after the first quarter last week in a 7-7 game at the quarter-pole mark. In three playoff games, the Chiefs’ first-quarter scores have been:

  • 7-0 lead vs. Miami
  • 3-3 at Buffalo
  • 7-7 at Baltimore

For San Francisco:

  • 3-0 losing vs. Green Bay
  • 14-0 losing vs. San Francisco

You have two plays here. The Chiefs at +0.5 but at a -150 clip. Or Chiefs on the moneyline for +104. We say go for it, and if it’s tied at the 15-minute mark, there’s no harm, no foul.

The Play: Chiefs first-quarter moneyline (+104 at FanDuel)

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