Super Bowl Preview: 49ers vs. Chiefs Odds and Best Bets

After a regular season that saw plenty of unpredictable moments, we’re left with a Super Bowl many saw coming.

In the preseason Super Bowl futures, the Kansas City Chiefs were the AFC team with the shortest odds, and the San Francisco 49ers were the team with the shortest odds of any NFC team.

As recently as Christmas, the Chiefs looked like they weren’t going to be able to put together a run this year with an unreliable offense and no longer having the comforts of Arrowhead Stadium in the postseason. Lest we doubt Patrick Mahomes and the big-game ability of Travis Kelce again.

The 49ers had a strong regular season, earning the No. 1 seed. But after fending off a challenge from 7-seed Green Bay in the Divisional round, the 49ers looked like they were toast as late as halftime of Sunday’s NFC Championship. A series of plays followed that shifted the momentum, with this improbable one probably being the biggest.

Instead of an interception, Brandon Aiyuk’s catch led to a touchdown a handful of plays later. It was part of a 27-point run by the 49ers and a 34-31 victory over a gritty Lions team.

Now, the pretenders are gone. We’re left with the Chiefs, who are in the big game for the fourth time in five seasons, and the 49ers, who are here for the second time in that span. It’s a rematch of Super Bowl LIV that the Chiefs won in 2020. What will be the outcome this time? We have the Super Bowl best bets on the 49ers vs. Chiefs odds.

We’ve seen it for most of the season, but it’s still hard to process: the Chiefs are winning with defense. The total has gone under in two of KC’s three playoff games, and that’s thanks to a stingy defense. Who would’ve guessed that the Chiefs would be shutout in the second half in Baltimore and still win? That’s what happened in the 17-10 victory over the Ravens thanks to some clutch defensive plays: an interception in the end zone and this heads-up play by L’Jarius Sneed on a sure touchdown by Zay Flowers.

San Francisco struggled with Detroit’s running game and offensive line, but those aren’t as strong of points for the Chiefs. They will have to rely more on passing the ball, and while Mahomes and Kelce can’t be discounted, it behooves the Chiefs not to get into a shootout with the Niners.

While San Francisco took some shots by the Packers and Lions, they still had the best scoring defense in the NFC by allowing 17.5 points per game. The Ravens gave up 16.5 per contest, and the Chiefs put up 17 on them, so perhaps that’s a sign of things to come.

Despite a 31-20 score in 2020, we are calling for fewer points this time around.

The Play: 49ers-Chiefs UNDER 47.5 (-110 at Caesars)

There’s plenty at stake for both teams when it comes to legacy. The Chiefs have a chance to be the first back-to-back winners of the Lombardi Trophy since the New England Patriots of 2003-04. The 49ers are going for a record-tying sixth Super Bowl title after failing to get the job done in 2013 and 2020.

After opening as two-point favorites, the line has hovered between one and two points in favor of the Niners. The Chiefs won’t have any problem with that. You saw them play with a chip on their shoulder to win as underdogs in Buffalo and Baltimore.

While the Buffalo game wasn’t as chippy, we saw the Chiefs work their way into the heads of the Ravens on Sunday. The normally composed team committed several mistakes and personal fouls as a result. Next Sunday’s Super Bowl could play like a road game for the Chiefs. The game is in Las Vegas, which is closer to California. Niners fans are also more starved for a title; the Chiefs have two in the Mahomes era and have played in three of the last four Super Bowls. Either way, as underdogs, expect the Chiefs to retain the mindset they have played with the past two weeks.

The Ravens, for all their strengths, were team that started slow most of the year. Kansas City took advantage of that by jumping out to a 17-7 lead at halftime. Meanwhile, the 49ers played from behind against Green Bay and Detroit for most of each game. They were able to come back at home against teams without a lot of recent playoff experience.

If the Niners get out to a slow start here, don’t expect the Chiefs to be as generous. In their last two Super Bowl wins, the Chiefs needed double-digit comebacks in the fourth quarter to win. Expect the Niners to be in this position and not quite get the job done.

The Play: Chiefs -2 (-108 at DraftKings)