2024 NFL MVP Futures: Will a QB Continue to Win?

Taking a look at the list of Super Bowl-winning teams over the years, and one thing is clear: a franchise quarterback is an extremely valuable player.

So that’s probably why a QB has won the NFL MVP award for 11 years in a row and in 16 of the last 17 seasons. The only outlier in that span was Adrian Peterson in 2012. All he had to do was rush for over 2,000 yards (and second-most in a single season) to earn the award.

This is a stat that the oddsmakers are well aware of. At FanDuel, there are 21 quarterbacks with better odds than the first three position players. The odds of DeShaun Watson and Baker Mayfield are shorter than those of Christian McCaffrey, Justin Jefferson, and Tyreek Hill — all who are at +10000.

Let’s take a closer look at those quarterbacks and see how we can corner the market in the 2024 NFL MVP odds race.

Among active quarterbacks, three of them have won an MVP award and all have done so multiple times. Aaron Rodgers is a four-time winner while Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson have two apiece. Going into this season, Jackson was coming off two injury-shortened campaigns. His odds of winning in 2023 were +1600 (at BetMGM).

Mahomes, the two-time winner, is the betting favorite. The Chiefs are coming off their worst year offensively in the Mahomes era. However, they still won the Super Bowl in the end and are among the favorites for a three-peat. Expect retooling the wide receiver room to be an offseason priority in KC.

Going into this season, there are 10 quarterbacks with odds of +1600 or shorter. Here’s a closer look at FanDuel’s list.

If you’re going to back Mahomes at +650, that means you can take a few other players and still profit on a Mahomes MVP win in 2024. Let’s see who’s worth backing.

Josh Allen (+800): Allen throws for yards, touchdowns, and wins a lot of games, but he’s going to have to bring his interception numbers to 2020 levels. That year, he threw 10 picks, 37 touchdowns, and over 4,500 yards. He finished second in the MVP voting that year. Since then, Allen’s TDs are down (29 last year) and INTs are way up (18 in 2023). He still was fifth in the MVP race last year, and he may put it all together one of these seasons, but +800 isn’t great value at this time.

Joe Burrow (+1000): Yes, Burrow is coming off an injury-plagued year that saw him undergo season-ending wrist surgery in late November. But that injury isn’t one that should hamper him in 2024. And there’s precedent for QBs returning from injury to win this award, including Jackson last year and Rodgers in 2020.

Justin Herbert (+1300): One of these years, Herbert is going to put up big numbers and win, despite the revolving door of coaches around him. This year, Jim Harbaugh takes over as head coach and Greg Roman will be Herbert’s third OC in three seasons. We love Herbert as a sleeping giant, but maybe in 2025 after some time with this coaching staff.

Jordan Love (+1400): Jordan Love took huge strides in the second half of 2023 and is poised to continue the Packers MVP QB legacy.

In the final eight games of the regular season, Love threw 18 touchdowns and just one interception. He was shaky against the 49ers in the Divisional round of the playoffs but threw for three touchdowns in a rout of Dallas in the opening round. Love will have all of his young targets back for a second year, and running back Aaron Jones also remains under contract. It’s all sizing up for a big year for Love.

In 2023, Tyreek Hill was one shy of 1,800 receiving yards and finished sixth in MVP voting. In 2021, Cooper Kupp (1,947 yards) was 17 yards shy of setting a new single-season receiving yards record and finished a distant third behind Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, garnering 1% of the vote.

Christian McCaffrey scored a total of 21 touchdowns last year and gained over 2,000 yards from scrimmage. He finished third in the MVP voting. In 2019, he gained nearly 1,400 yards and added over 1,000 receiving yards. But Lamar Jackson was the unanimous MVP.

These statistics are provided to show you that it’s largely a waste to put any serious cash on a non-quarterback in for 2024 NFL MVP, no matter the odds.

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