NFL Week 10 Prop Bets: Welcome Back, Burrow

The NFL sort of returned to normal last week. The Chiefs held on against the Dolphins, which reinforced the notion that Miami can’t beat a good team. The Ravens look dominant, and the Bengals are officially back. Let’s analyze the three best player/team prop bets for the 10th week of the 2023 NFL season.

In prop land, it was a non-ideal week. The Bills did not show up. Alvin Kamara had four catches in the first half, but none in the second. But Ceedee Lamb did well against the Eagles. This week, we’re going back to the basics. Here are the three best prop bets for Week 10 of the NFL season.

Remember when the Cincinnati Bengals were 1-3? Apparently that was a fluke. More likely, Joe Burrow was still nursing his injury from training camp. Either way, Cincinnati is back. The Bengals have won four-straight and Joe Burrow is on fire. The Pro Bowler has completed at least 68% of his passes with a touchdown-interception ratio of 10:2 the last four weeks.

The Bengals host OROY favorite C.J. Stroud and the surprising Houston Texans this week. This game could be a shootout. We expect both teams to sling the ball around. That’s why we recommend you taking Burrow to throw for over 276.5 yards at FanDuel.

Burrow has thrown for at least 280 yards the last couple of weeks. Those performances came against the San Francisco 49ers and Buffalo Bills–two of the top-five scoring defenses in the NFL. The Texans should be an easier matchup for Burrow. Houston gives up 238 passing yards per game. That’s bottom-10 across the league.

Sometimes, it takes time. The Bengals started 0-2 last year yet nearly made their second-straight Super Bowl. Burrow appears back in MVP-caliber form. We believe this stretch will continue, so take the over on 276.5 yards.

Christian McCaffrey ran for 106 yards against the Cardinals in week 4. Congrats to those who took our advice and bet the over on 84.5. Since then, these have been the following rushing outputs for the All-Pro: 51, 43, 45, 54. The 49ers have gone 1-3 in that stretch. Maybe it’s not a causation, but there’s certainly a correlation. At least he’s still scoring touchdowns for your fantasy team. 

We believe it’s time for CMC to break out of his rushing skid. McCaffrey’s over/under is 66.5 rushing yards at Hard Rock Bet. We really like the over on this total despite a tough matchup.

San Francisco travels to the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. The Jaguars come in with the NFL’s third-ranked run defense. Jacksonville has only allowed one player to go over 70 yards this season. That was Bijan Robinson (105 yards) in week 4.

However, McCaffrey does have a couple of things working in his favor. It’s possible Deebo Samuel and/or Trent Williams returns from injury this week. A Deebo return should take away players from the box. We all know Williams’ dominance. CMC is one of the premier running backs in the league. He’s due to break out of this slump.

Usually we don’t recommend bets like this, but for this week, we have to do it. You can get the Los Angeles Chargers at -750 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook to have over 13.5 points against the Detroit Lions. As indicated by the odds, this is likely to happen. L.A. does have a knack for disappointing everyone. However, we like this bet.

The Lions give up over 20 PPG, which is 14th in the NFL. They’re a good, but not great defense. Meanwhile, the Chargers haven’t scored less than 14 points this season. In fact, L.A. hasn’t done that since week three of 2022. This season, the Chargers score 25.1 points per contest. That’s eighth in the league. Not too shabby.

Yes, we recognize this is unorthodox, but there’s a reason it’s -750 odds. If the Chargers don’t score 14 or more points, it’ll be a massive disappointment–especially because they’re at home, where the Bolts average an even-better 26 points-a-game. L.A. has a solid offense. Justin Herbert leads the charge. Keenan Allen just cracked 10,000 receiving yards, and Austin Ekeler has returned from injury. Just take the money and run.

Before you go, check out our Best Bets for Week 10 of the 2023 NFL season.