NFL Week 10 Best Bets: Embrace Mediocrity

There are 272 games in the NFL regular season. Not all of them are worthy of the buzz that comes with events like a Super Bowl, or the “Seinfeld” finale. The quality of an NFL game varies greatly, often depending on the opponents. For every Miami-Kansas City or Buffalo-Cincinnati, we get an Arizona-Cleveland or Giants-Raiders.

This week, it’s not pretty. There are a couple interesting games on the schedule (Texans-Bengals and 49ers-Jaguars should be a lot of fun), but there is a lot of slop to wade through. But we won’t be wading through it–we will be diving in head-first. Hold your nose, because this could get nasty. Let’s go through the muck for our NFL Week 10 best bets.

We have a message for Germany. We are so, so sorry.

After giving Frankfurt the Dolphins and Chiefs, this week they must endure the Colts and Patriots. If not for Kenny Moore, this game would have nothing going for it.

Moore had two pick-sixes last week. You know who loves throwing pick-sixes? Michael McKorkle Jones.

Clearly those are not predictive, but this is a game between teams going in different directions. The Colts have managed to hang in playoff contention despite a tough schedule. This Euro-trip will give them a much-needed break from that.

Play: Colts -1.5 (-110 on FanDuel)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 5-3 and currently the 5-seed in the AFC. They are also a bad team. The Steelers rank 29^th in the NFL in points per game and 31^st in yards per game allowed. They have a -30 point differential, but are 5-0 in one-score games.

Fortunately for the Steelers, they face Green Bay. The Packers got back on track, at home, against the Brett Rypien-led Rams. The Packers now appear to be whole offensively, with Aaron Jones having his best game of the season.

The Steelers simply can not be trusted to cover a number against a competent team.

Play: Packers +3.5 (-115 on DraftKings)

It now appears that Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray will return, 11 months after he tore his ACL. It can not be worse than what Arizona got in week 9.

The Cardinals had 17 yards passing. All game. The Browns sacked Clayton Tune seven times, intercepted him twice, and rolled to a casual 27-0 win.

Even if Murray returns, it will be tough to expect the best from him. And it has been a while since we’ve seen Murray at his best.

Play: Falcons -1.5 (-110 on FanDuel)

We have lived well this season following some simple trends. One of them is tailing the Dallas Cowboys against bad teams and fading them against good ones.

This week, they are not playing a good team. They will likely face Tommy DeVito, who through injuries to Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor has become a made man and is now the Giants’ starter.  DeVito, who had two passable seasons out of five between Syracuse and Illinois, has gotten off to a forgettable start in two games with the Giants.

The Cowboys thrive off takeaways against lower-level teams. They will get that in spades this week. They just might be playing the coda to “Layla” at halftime.

Play: Cowboys -15 (-110 on BetRivers)

The NFL had a chance to flex Jets-Raiders out of Sunday Night Football. They watched that chance float away like the plastic bag in “American Beauty.”

Zach Wilson vs Aidan O’Connell. One team just fired its coach. You hyped yet?

Both teams have bad offenses, so we lean on defense, where the Jets rank in the top 10 in both points allowed and total takeaways. One good unit is good enough for us.

Play: Jets -1.5 (-110 on Caesars)

WEEK 9: 4-1

SEASON (including Game of the Week):  42-24