NFL Week 4 Prop Bets: Dolphins to Return to Earth, Zach Wilson to Stay There

The NFL season is in full force with some teams looking like contenders, while others are trending towards the basement. There were some big upsets last week (hello, Arizona, Houston, and Indianapolis). Will there be any more as we wrap up the first month of the season? It’s time to analyze the three best player and team prop bets for Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season.

When New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers went down with a torn achilles just four plays into week one, many believed New York’s season was finished. However, something magical happened. The Jets rallied to defeat the Buffalo Bills 22-16 in overtime on a punt return by undrafted rookie Xavier Gipson.

Fast forward a couple weeks and those initial prognosticators appear to be correct. There’s a reason Gang Green traded for Rodgers. Zach Wilson just doesn’t have it. The former No. 2 overall pick threw three interceptions against the Dallas Cowboys in week two. Last week, Wilson completed just 50% of his passes. 

Wilson’s over/under for passing yards in Week 4 is 177.5. We highly suggest taking the under. A Sunday Night matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs could be a nightmare for Wilson.

We’re not saying to take the under only because Wilson is not a very good NFL quarterback. The Chiefs quietly have been one of the best pass defenses in the league this season. Kansas City dominated Chicago quarterback Justin Fields last week. A bad quarterback against a strong back-end? Yeah, take the under on Wilson’s passing yards for this week. This could be ugly.

The Miami Dolphins scored 70 points against the Denver Broncos last week. That was only the third-most points scored in a game in NFL history. Absolutely everything went right for Miami. The Fins had a 300-yard passer, a 200-yard rusher, and a 150-yard receiver. By the way, all 70 points came on offense.

The dismantling moved Miami to 3-0 and, in the process, into the top-five in Super Bowl futures odds.

The Dolphins travel to the Buffalo Bills next week. This matchup should be tougher. It might be the most intriguing game of the week. Miami’s over/under for total points is 25.5 with -102 odds to bet the under at Fanduel Sportsbook. Yes, we recommend taking the under. 

It’s impossible to explain how dominant Miami’s offense has been for three weeks: 36 points in the opener and another 24 at New England the following week. That latter total felt like the floor for this unit. Sooner or later, the remarkable stretch must end. Why not now? 

Buffalo has recovered from its opening night loss with two fantastic defensive performances. The Bills have allowed 13 points and have forced eight turnovers in combined wins vs. Las Vegas and at Washington. Miami is hot. Buffalo is hot. Buffalo, however, is at home. The Dolphins should still score a solid total, but probably under 25.5 points.

San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey is the best running back in football. The former Panther leads the NFL in rushing and averages 5.9 yards-per-carry. On top of that, CMC has scored a touchdown in 12 straight games dating back to Week 12 of last season. The NFL record is 15.

The 49ers take on the Arizona Cardinals at home on Sunday. McCaffrey’s over/under rushing total is 84.5. This is a bet we absolutely love. CMC has surpassed that total every week to start the season. He’s also had two weeks with 100+ yards.

The Cardinals have looked better than expected to start the year. They just upset the Dallas Cowboys last week, and each of their losses have been by one possession. However, Arizona’s run defense wasn’t good last week. Dallas’ Tony Pollard ran for 122 yards on 5.3 yards-per-attempt. The Cowboys have a solid rushing attack and offensive line, but the 49ers are on another level. 

San Fran as a team is third in the NFL in rushing and sixth in yards-per-carry. The 49ers are also fifth in the league in rushing attempts. They like to run the ball and they do it quite well in part because of McCaffrey. Expect the All-Pro to have another solid performance against a lowly Cardinals squad.