NFL Week 10 Preview: Browns vs. Ravens Odds and Best Bets

Through nine weeks, the AFC North is the lone division in which all four teams have winning records. Not only that, all four teams are currently in the playoffs. This comes despite Joe Burrow’s season nearly ending before it started, Deshaun Watson missing three games to injury, and Kenny Pickett being a starting quarterback. The division also features a surprisingly meaningful matchup when the Browns travel to Baltimore.

The Baltimore Ravens are playing arguably the best among all teams in the NFL. They rank first in point differential (only the Bills and 49ers are even within 40) and are playing at a level defensively we have not seen in almost a quarter-century.

Hot take: When you are being compared favorably to the 2000 Ravens, that is a good thing–for a defense, at least.

Baltimore is also supremely efficient offensively. They rank sixth in the league in yards and points per game, and are No. 1 with a bullet in rushing. Lamar Jackson has improved his decision-making, going from one interception every 35 passes the last two seasons, to one in 84 so far this year.

All of this adds up to a team that will impose its will on you on both sides of the ball and not give you easy opportunities to counter.
The Browns, meanwhile, appear to be a miniature version of the Ravens. They too rely on a strong defense and running game. Cleveland is third in rushing but is first in both passing yards and overall yards allowed. They have won with, to be kind, average quarterback play. Watson is 19^th in QB rating (23^rd in QBR), and the Browns rank 29^th in passing yards per game. They have done well to overcome the loss of Nick Chubb, averaging 144.5 yards rushing the last four games.

An early look at the numbers suggests a defensive struggle, but let’s dive a little deeper into the Browns vs. Ravens odds and find some value.

The Ravens have been a machine in the first half. They have outscored their opponents 135-49 in the opening 30 minutes–an average margin of 9.5 points per game. They have led at the half in eight of nine games, trailing Indy by three in week 3 after a hurricane passed through the night before.

Their offense is more predictive than Cleveland, and playing at home will make it easy for them to jump out early.

NOTE: This is offered at -3.5 at around +100 on other books, but the alt line is worth the juice.

It is officially time to get on the Gus bus. Gus Edwards has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2023 season. Edwards has stepped up in place of J.K. Dobbins, who tore his Achilles in the season opener. Edwards has run for at least 40 yards in every game since. He’s also averaging over five yards per carry in his last three games. That includes 52 yards last week against Seattle–on just five rushes.

While Cleveland’s rush defense has been stout, it is not as strong as their pass defense. Expect the Ravens to rely on their strength. An expected positive game script to let Gus go round and round.

The only way this hits is if the Browns get a non-offensive touchdown. Or at the very least, a return that puts them in the red zone. Cleveland brings to Baltimore a pedestrian offense, with only one real playmaker in Amari Cooper. Kareem Hunt was thought to slide back into his split back/passing back role, but he is averaging a career-low 3.3 yards per carry and is on pace for a career-low 22 receptions.

More importantly, Watson has not been what the Browns had hoped for when they traded three first-round picks to Houston, then paid him $230 million guaranteed. Watson has averaged just 182 yards per game with the Browns, on 6.5 yards per pass.

The Ravens defense has shut down the Texans, Lions and Seahawks at home this season. Baltimore also crushed Cleveland, 28-3, at the Dawg Pound in Week 4. They should have no trouble doing the same to the Browns again.

While you get ready for Week 10, Sidelines has you covered. Check out our top-five picks for the ninth week of the NFL season along with key prop bets to consider.