NFL Week 9 Prop Bets: Kamara Flying Under the Radar

Last week wasn’t ideal. Austin Ekeler did well in fantasy, but it was on the receiving end–he didn’t rush for over 52.5 yards. Cooper Kupp underperformed again, and the Chiefs. What happened? Well, Patrick Mahomes did come down with the flu right before the game.

The NFL is so unpredictable. But we forge ahead! Let’s analyze the three best player and team prop bets for Week 9 of the NFL season.

The Buffalo Bills have been on a roller coaster this season. Buffalo started out with a tough road loss in Week 1, blew out its next three opponents (including Miami), and have since looked off. The Bills have split the last four weeks. They nearly lost to the Giants at home and then fell to the Patriots–who are in contention for Caleb Williams.

It’s tough to predict which Bills team will show up week-to-week. Will it be the Super Bowl contender or the pumpkin? This week, we’re betting it’s the former against the Cincinnati Bengals – at least for Buffalo’s offense. The Bills’ team over/under is 23.5 points with -112 odds to bet the over at FanDuel Sportsbook. We suggest taking this bet.

The Bills aren’t a guarantee each week, but they’ve gone over that threshold in five of their eight games this season. In 2022, Buffalo surpassed 23.5 points 12 times in the regular season. Add that all up, and that’s a 68% rate. Pretty good.

Cincinnati’s defense also leaves a lot to be desired. The Bengals are middle-of-the-pack in points-allowed per game and are 6th worst in yards given up per contest. The Bills are going on the road, and we’re not predicting a win. However, we expect Buffalo’s offense to deliver.

The NFL may have a new checkdown king. His name is Alvin Kamara; thank you, Derek Carr. The Pro Bowl running back isn’t a stranger to catching passes; Kamara averages over five catches a game in his career. But what he has done in 2023 has been remarkable. Kamara has 39 receptions, which leads all running backs despite him missing the first three games due to a suspension.

If Kamara hadn’t missed the first few contests, he’d be on pace for an NFL running back record 132 catches in one season. However, he’ll have to settle with a pace of 109. This would be the second-most ever in a year.

Kamara’s over/under receptions against the Chicago Bears this Sunday is 4.5 at PrizePicks. We really like the over. Kamara has gone over this total in four of five games in 2023.

Last week, the Bears gave up seven receptions to Austin Ekeler, who is one of the premier pass-catching tailbacks in football. Kamara has that capability, and he’s clearly showing it this season. Get ready for another classic Kamara game.

Normally, betting against stars is a bad idea. Ceedee Lamb is one of those stars. The Dallas Cowboys‘ top target is having another Pro Bowl-caliber season. The former first-round pick comes into next week hot. Lamb has gone over 100 yards in back-to-back weeks and scored two touchdowns last Sunday in a rout over the Rams.

Lamb’s over/under is 76.5 receiving yards at PrizePicks. We feel this is a trap. We like the under on this bet because Lamb historically struggles against the Philadelphia Eagles. 

Lamb has played the Eagles six times in his career. On five of those occasions, he failed to cross 70 yards. Lamb did go off last time Dallas faced Philly last Christmas, but that game was at home. This one will be on the road, where he averages about 47 yards-per-game at the Linc. Not good.

It’s easy to say that Lamb has improved over the course of his career. He should be able to make some impact, especially because Philadelphia doesn’t have an awesome pass defense. While the Eagles struggled against the pass last week, they also lived up to the challenge against Miami the week prior. This isn’t a great matchup for Lamb, so we believe the under is the best way to go for this total.

Before you go, check out our Best Bets for Week 9 of the 2023 NFL season.