NFC North Odds Trend Toward Titletown

2022 looked like it might have been an offseason of major change in the NFC North, considering the uncertainty surrounding Aaron Rodgers’ future. That uncertainty led to many sportsbooks holding the opening of NFC West odds until late February. But once Rodgers announced his return, odds tilted heavily toward Titletown.

Betting NFL Futures can be a tricky proposition at times, especially when a player of Rodgers’ caliber was in question. Those odds shifted following one of the more seismic shakeups this offseason, but only made minimal improvements for the other teams in this group.

While other NFL divisional odds, like the AFC West odds, have fluctuated wildly this offseason, the NFC North odds have remained fairly steady. Here’s a look.

NFC West Odds

Team		Best Odds
Green Bay Packers		-175 (DraftKings)
Minnesota Vikings		+270 (PointsBet)
Chicago Bears		+800 (BetMGM)
Detroit Lions		+1200 (Caesars)

The NFC North has belonged to the Green Bay Packers for the better part of the last decade. And while the flurry of offseason moves has largely avoided the NFC North, it doesn’t look like much will change next season. The Pack sports seven of the last 10 division crowns, including the last three in a row. Since the NFL’s expansion and realignment in 2002, Green Bay’s won the division 12 times.

The 2022 NFL win totals from Caesars opened with the Packers atop their win projection, posting Green Bay’s over/under total at 11.5. No other team in the division saw projections above 8.5, including two of the lowest five for the NFC.

Packers Own Best NFC North Odds

The Green Bay Packers keep piling up division crowns, with eight as Rodgers as the team’s starting quarterback. Although the Pack sported the NFC’s top record in each of the last three seasons, they haven’t made it beyond the conference title game since winning the Super Bowl in 2010. Despite that, the Packers own the second-best NFC Championship odds entering 2022.

The was some question entering the 2022 offseason if Rodgers would be under center in Green Bay. Speculation and rumor ran rampant regarding retirement or a possible trade. And Green Bay gets credit for bringing back their MVP, the team ultimately lost his favorite target following a contract dispute.

The Packers traded away DaVante Adams for a package of draft picks, but now need to fill a gaping hole at wide receiver. The team also lost receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling and linebacker Za’Darius Smith, as well as two members of their offensive line. The Packers key re-signings include LB De’Vondre Campbell, CB Rasul Douglas, WR Allen Lazard, and TE Robert Tonyan, but they’ve done little else.

The Packers saw their initial NFC North odds set at -150 in most sportsbooks despite the Rodgers’ uncertainty. Once Rodgers officially returned, Green Bay’s odds improved, making them heavy odds-on favorites at -210. But following the trade of Adams, their odds faded somewhat to -190 at Caesars and -182 at BetMGM. -182 gives them a 58.5 percent implied probability to win the division.

Vikings Vying for Better NFC North Odds

The Minnesota Vikings missed the playoffs again following their second consecutive losing season in 2021. After under achieving for the better part of the last four years, the Vikings fired longtime head coach Mike Zimmer and general manager Rick Spielman. Minnesota brought in new general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and new head coach Kevin O’Connell, following his success with the LA Rams.

The Vikings last won the NFC North in 2017, when the team made a run to the NFC Championship game with Case Keenum at quarterback. Minnesota’s the only other team in the division with multiple division crowns (2) over the last decade. The Vikings won the division in 2015, and their last back-to-back division crowns came in 2008 and 2009.

Minnesota’s salary cap situation kept the team from making a big splash in free agency. The Vikings recommitted to quarterback Kirk Cousins following a contract extension, and locked up wide receiver Adam Thielen. The team did sign linebacker Za’Darius Smith away from the Packers to bolster their defense. They expect to make a run at an NFC Wild Card berth in 2022, but they’ll need to hit the over on Caesars’ 8.5 wins if they’re going to make that happen.

The Vikings saw their initial NFC North odds set at +250, leaving them second on the board in most sportsbooks. Once Rodgers announced his return, Minnesota’s odds faded to +340. Following the trade of Adams, and the free agent additions for the Vikings, those odds improved slightly. Minnesota now sees odds between +275 and +280 for the most part.

Bears Looking to Rebuild

The Chicago Bears finished the 2021 season 6–11, failing to improve upon their 8–8 record from 2020, and failed to return to the playoffs. Head coach Matt Nagy, along with general manager Ryan Pace, were fired. In their place, Chicago hired Indianapolis Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus as head coach and Kansas City Chiefs executive director of player personnel Ryan Poles was named the general manager.

Chicago took a step back in 2021 following a Wild Card run in 2020. The Bears were the last team not named the Green Bay Packers to win the NFC North, doing so in 2018. Prior to that, Chicago’s last division crown came back in 2010, which was the last year they won a playoff game.

The Bears new front office did little to improve the team in free agency, and there’s no argument the team sports less talent on the roster now than it did at the start of the offseason. Chicago allowed Allen Robinson, Jakeem Grant, and James Daniels to walk in free agency, and traded away Khalil Mack for draft picks. While they did add Byron Pringle and defensive line help, the Bears haven’t done enough to be competitive for 2022.

The Bears saw their initial NFC North odds set at +600 at Caesars and most other sportsbooks. BetMGM started them at +650, and have since faded the Bears to +800. DraftKings did something similar. At UniBet, the Bears are -375 not to make the playoffs.

LIONS Remain Longshots in 2022

The Detroit Lions didn’t do much winning in 2021, finishing 3-13-1. Detroit started the season 0-8 before securing a tie in Week 10. The Lions ended 3-5, which is respectable and something to build upon. The Lions were very good against the spread, finished 11-6 in 2021 and posting the fourth-best cover percentage in the NFL.

Three different teams have won the NFC North in the last five years, with the Packers being back-to-back-to-back champs entering 2022. The Lions, though, never won the NFC North, and haven’t won the division since 1993. Detroit’s last trip to the playoffs came as a Wild Card in 2016, and the franchise hasn’t won a playoff game since 1991.

The Lions also avoided the free agency spending spree this offseason, opting instead to make smaller moves on the margins as the team continues to build through the draft. Detroit holds the No. 2 overall selection 2022, and likely looks to draft an edge rusher to upgrade the defensive line. The Lions took a flyer on wide receiver D.J. Chark, and signed cornerback Mike Hughes to a deal.

The Lions saw their opening NFC North odds make them longshots for a division title. Detroit best opening odds came from BetMGM, which initially listed the Lions at +800. But once Rodgers returned, those odds faded to +1200. The Lions opened at +1200 at Caesars and FanDuel, and +1800 at DraftKings. BetMGM has the Lions at -700 to miss the playoffs in 2022.