Buffalo, Tampa Bay Top 2022 NFL Win Totals

Last Thursday, Caesars Sportsbook dropped their 2022 NFL Win Totals for bettors to consider and play. These Over/Unders hit the sports betting market at a time when NFL teams continue to reshape their rosters in the offseason. And while the first wave of free agency has ebbed in recent days, the tsunami of change that swept through the league in March altered many of these futures bets. 

With the NFL Draft slated for later in April, these win totals stand to change again in the coming weeks. The NFL’s 2022 schedule could also impact some of the over/unders for different teams. Bettors may feel more confident in a given team based on matchups, bye weeks, and placement on the weekly schedule grid. 

Several sportsbooks already posted their 2022 NFL Win Totals, with Caesars being one of the latest and among the most bunched. 

‘Parity’ Makes For Uncertain Futures (Bets)

Assistant Director of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook, Adam Pullen, noted the particularly competitive nature of the NFL following the flurry of offseason activity. “The parity’s there,” Pullen said in Caesars’ press release. “There’s so many good teams out there.”

Despite the 17th game on the schedule, that parity prevented Caesars, and some other sportsbooks, from listing a team with a projected win total of 12. The Kansas City Chiefs opened at 12 in the 2021 NFL Win Totals. 

“With all the player movement, it lends itself to more uncertainty and just more balance,” said Pullen. “So it’s not a surprise the highest win total is 11.5, it just shows how deep the league is.”

Pullen noted the Cincinnati Bengals came “out of nowhere” to make Super Bowl LVI. The Bengals actually grabbed an against-the-spread victory in the Big Game, covering as four-point underdogs against the Los Angeles Rams. Considering there hasn’t been a repeat Super Bowl champion since 2003-2004, it’s no surprise the Rams trail behind the teams with the highest 2022 NFL Win Totals projections. 

2022 NFL Win Totals Breakdown 

The Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers each opened at 11.5 in the 2022 NFL Win Totals at Caesars. Each of those teams sees their All-Pro quarterbacks cradling their title hopes. Buffalo holds the top odds for the AFC Championship so it’s no surprise they’re leading the list. 

Six other squads sport double-digit win totals in Caesars’ initial projections. Among those are the defending champion Rams, Dallas Cowboys, and AFC runner-up Chiefs are all at 10.5. The Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos, and San Francisco 49ers all saw their figure open at 10. 

The Bucs remain favorites at most sportsbooks to win the Super Bowl, though their odds make fade some now that there’s been a change at head coach in Tampa Bay. 

Five other teams in the AFC saw their 2022 NFL Win Totals set at 9.5, including three teams in the AFC North (Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland). That’s nine franchises Caesars foresees finishing above .500, with three more teams (Las Vegas, Miami, New England) slotted at 8.5 wins. Only seven teams can make the playoffs, so this sportsbook envisions at least two winning teams, if not more, on the outside looking in. 

The NFC lacks the depth of talent seen in the other conference, but five team hold double-digit figures, and another three (Arizona, Minnesota, Philadelphia) are expected above or at least near .500. 

The lowest projected win totals come in the AFC, with the Houston Texans (4.5) expected to struggle in 2022. The New York Jets and Atlanta Falcons saw their number set at 5.5. A pair of teams with serious questions at quarterback, Carolina and Seattle, have their total set at six. 

2022 AFC Win Totals

The over for the Buffalo Bills opened at -125, with the under getting +105 odds. Caesars set Kansas City’s 10.5 figure with odds of -130 for the over and +110 for the under. The Chiefs losing Tyreek Hill and others this offseason seems to have knocked them down a peg in the view of most sportsbooks. 

The Broncos and Chargers are nearly even in the estimation of the Caesars Sportsbook. Denver sees their over odds at -110, while LA sees it at -105. The under odds for the Broncos is -110, and for the Chargers its -115. 

Four of the five AFC teams with projects wins set at 9.5 see their odds at -110 for both the over and under. The only team not holding those initial odds is the Titans, who have -105 for the over, and -115 for the under. 

Interestingly, the other AFC teams Caesars expects to be competitive have some differences in their odds. The Dolphins and Patriots see their opening over odds for 8.5 wins at -135, while the under odds sit at +115. But the Raiders, who are projected at 8.5 wins as well, have over odds set at +105 to start and under odds at -125. 

Caesars seems down on the Jaguars and Steelers, as both teams see plus odds for their over totals. 

2022 NFC Win Totals

The Buccaneers and Packers each saw their initial 2022 NFL Win Totals projections set at 11.5, but their over/under odds indicate a very different confidence level at Caesars. The Bucs over odds opened at +100, with the under at -120. The Packers, meanwhile, saw -120 for the over, and +100 for the under. 

The Cowboys and Rams enjoyed the same odds for their matching win totals, with +100 for the over and -120 for the under. The 49ers saw the over odds open at -130 for their 10 wins, and +110 for the under. 

Caesars set the Cardinals, Eagles, and Vikings within 0.5 a game of one another, but the sportsbook isn’t overly confident in any of those teams. All three teams saw at least +105 odds for the over, and at least -120 for the under. The Saints, meanwhile, are -130 to the over for their 7.5 projected wins, and +110 to the under. 

At the bottom of the conference, the Lions, Panthers and Seahawks all have at least -110 odds for their overs. Interestingly, the Lions and Panthers are also -110 for the under. The Seahawks saw +110 for their under. The Falcons, with the NFC’s lowest 2022 Win Totals at 5.5, are +115 for the over, and -135 for the under.