NFL Week 13 Preview: Chiefs vs. Packers Odds and Best Bets

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has just about done all he could have done in his first seven years in the league. Most Valuable Player, two Super Bowl championships, dozens of insane highlights.

But there is one thing he still has not done: face Aaron Rodgers head to head. The Chiefs have played the Packers twice during Mahomes’ tenure. But Mahomes missed the game at Arrowhead in 2019, and Rodgers sat out two years later. This year, the two were set to share the stage in prime time — with Rodgers a member of the Jets. But as we know, his season (so far) lasted four plays.

Now Mahomes invades Lambeau Field for the first time as a pro, with Rodgers long gone. The Chiefs are far from their full leviathan form, and is facing a Packers team that appears to be finding its stride as we head into December. This is now a sneaky matchup that will help define whether Kansas City can regain the 1-seed in the AFC, and whether Green Bay can stay in the playoff mix.

This might seem like an obvious play, because let’s face it, it’s Patrick Mahomes. But that’s not why we are playing it.

The Green Bay Packers have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, allowing just 205 yards per game. But looking closer at the numbers, we found that is built largely on playing a subpar level of quarterbacks. The Packers have played four games against top-10 passing offenses this year. In those four games, they have allowed an average of 271.5 passing yards.

Kansas City has found a stud in Rashee Rice. Travis Kelce, while not having his usual dominant season, is still one of the most reliable tight end threats in the league. If you want to hit a receiving prop, Rice appears to be the better option. But look for Mahomes to find some success against a defense that has the whiff of a paper tiger.

Jordan Love is not widely known as one of the best running quarterbacks in the NFL. He ranks 11^th among starting QB’s with 221 rushing yards. Only 26 QB’s have played at least 10 games, so that is essentially league average. This week, he will have many opportunities to run.

The Chiefs rank sixth in total QB pressures, and are second in pressure rate. This is a more predictive measurement than sacks, and suggests Love will have to escape the pocket repeatedly over the course of the game.

Kansas City has also given up at least 29 yards rushing to quarterbacks five times, all to QBs with more rushing yards this season than Love. Both Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon missed practice on Wednesday, so that might lend more credence to leaning on Love a little more.

Life’s too short to bet the under? Sorry, Big Cat…but the trend is your friend.

If you are an active bettor (and if you’re not, an extra special thank you for your patronage), then you know that prime-time unders have been maybe the most reliable bet in the NFL this season — not withstanding Thursday night’s Seattle vs. Dallas shootout. So the below stat is actually 106-74-1 now.

But is this why we are taking the under here? Were that it were so simple.

As has been discussed in this space and others, Kansas City’s offense just isn’t what it has been. Yes, Rashee Rice is emerging, Kelce is still a fine player, and Mahomes can still go nuclear at any time. But they have scored 30 points just three times this year. That’s a rate of 27.3%, compared to 56.1% during the Mahomes Era from 2018-22.

Couple that with a capable Packers defense and a Chiefs defense that ranks among the elite across the board, and this game will stay low-scoring on what could be a dreary night at Lambeau.

While you get ready for Week 13, Sidelines has you covered. Check out our top-five picks for the 13th week of the NFL season along with key prop bets to consider.