NFL Week 13 Best Bets: Past Their Peak

Thanksgiving has passed. December football is upon us. Six weeks remain until the postseason, and the standings are taking shape. We are seeing some teams (Denver, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, etc.) playing their best football of the season — and creeping into the playoff mix. But there is also the other side of the coin. Some teams that started off well are now backsliding. We are looking at you Seattle, Buffalo and New Orleans.

This time of year, it is not enough to look at how a team is playing this season. What have you done for me lately? This is a chance to fade teams that are now past their peak. Keep that in mind as we present NFL Week 13’s best bets.

Leave it to the New York Jets to come up with a comic yet sad way to give up a touchdown.

It’s not the Butt Fumble, but the Hail Mary Pick Six will be remembered for a while. Unfortunately for Tim Boyle, that was just part of the story: 4.7 yards per pass, seven sacks, and a QBR of 4.6.

Now the Jets host Atlanta, who while only 5-6, currently lead the NFC South. In even better news, they finally unleashed Bijan Robinson (19 touches, 123 yards, two TDs vs. New Orleans last week). Desmond Ridder will have to keep his hands at 10 and 2 against a still-stingy defense, but Arthur Smith will know to limit his exposure and let his run game carry the way.

Play: Falcons -2.5 (-115 on BetMGM)

Ron Rivera, a relative dinosaur in NFL coaching circles, might soon be taken for a walk. The Commanders won their first two games, and were 3-3 through six weeks. Since then, 1-5, with the only win over Mac Jones. This is also their 13^th straight game without a bye.

Not a good time to take on a team equipped to run the 4X100 relay. Washington ranks 31^st in the NFL in Defensive DVOA. Miami has averaged 49 points per game against teams with a bottom-10 Defensive DVOA. They will have no trouble moving the ball, and Sam Howell doesn’t have it in him to keep up in a shootout.

Play: Dolphins -9.5 (-110 on DraftKings)

The Detroit Lions are one of the feel-good stories of the season. America’s Sweetheart Dan Campbell’s team is the front-runner in the NFC North and among the best in the NFC.

But their 8-3 record hides a relatively mediocre track record of late. Their last five games:

This week they go to New Orleans, who somehow have played only three home games all season (thanks, London). Count on the return to the Silverdome — sorry…Superdome — to give the Saints enough energy to hulk up and at least keep this close.

Play: Saints +4.5 (-110 on PointsBet)

In the preseason, we called the New England Patriots the most interesting uninteresting team in the NFL. That was being polite. There is nothing interesting about this team, unless you are intrigued in the car crash that is the end of the Mac Jones Era or the palace intrigue that goes with the end of the Bill Belichick Era.

On the other sideline, we see the Chargers, who for some reason still have Brandon Staley as their head coach. Both these teams peaked in training camp. The Patriots can’t score, but they have had success against Justin Herbert. We could see more punts and picks than points.

Play: Chargers/Patriots Under 40.5 (-110 on FanDuel)

Philadelphia Eagles, congratulations! You avenged your Super Bowl loss to Kansas City and completed another double-digit second half comeback to beat Buffalo in overtime. Here is your reward:

The 49ers are feasting, winning their last three games by an average of 30-10. They are No. 2 in DVOA this season, compared to Philly at eighth. The Eagles can also be excused for being tired after two comeback wins (the last deep into overtime), and looking ahead to a game against Dallas that could likely decide homefield advantage.

Play: 49ers -2.5 (-110 on FanDuel)

LAST WEEK’S NFL BEST BETS: 2-2-1

SEASON (including GOTW): 49-40-1