Super Bowl Futures Update: Major Changes From Midseason

There’s an old adage that the NFL stands for “not for long.”

That typically refers to the careers of players and coaches, which can change drastically from one year to the next. (Just ask Philadelphia head coach Nick Sirianni.)

But in this case, “not for long” can stand for teams that were among the favorites in Super Bowl futures odds at the midway point of the 2023 season.

Of the top-10 favorites based on the odds, just five remain going into this weekend’s Divisional round. Of course, there’s Sirianni’s Eagles, who were favored to win the NFC at that time and were +550 to win the Super Bowl. The Dallas Cowboys (+1000) and Miami Dolphins (+1100) bowed out last week with Philly. The other two teams (Cincinnati and Jacksonville) didn’t even make the playoffs. But at least the Bengals had a good excuse in losing Joe Burrow. The Jags are still searching for answers after going 1-5 down the stretch to lose the AFC South to Houston.

Here’s a look at the eight teams who remain, their current odds (at BetRivers), and their preseason odds. (How you Packers fans holding a 65-1 ticket feeling right now? Or Texans fans?)

The first thing that this tells us is that sportsbooks are on the hook for some potential big payoffs if anyone besides San Francisco, Kansas City, or Buffalo win the Super Bowl. But at best, just two of those teams will make their respective conference championship games.

Let’s break down the teams into groups and see who’s worth backing at this stage of the NFL playoffs.

Going into this weekend, there are three Super Bowl favorites. We don’t believe now is the time to bet on any of these teams. If they win this weekend, expect their odds to not change too much.

The Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers are both double-digit favorites this weekend and would host a championship game with a win next week. Don’t expect the 49ers’ odds to change at all, and Baltimore’s may only improve slightly.

There’s some more value with Buffalo at +500 thanks to a tougher Divisional round matchup this week with Kansas City. But if the seeding holds, the Bills would be underdogs at Baltimore and probably between +300 and +400 for the Super Bowl. We think it’s worth giving up some of the odds to make sure the Bills get past the Chiefs this weekend.

Read our best bets for the NFL playoffs’ Divisional round.

The Chiefs, the defending Super Bowl champs, were the preseason favorites and can be had now for better odds than during the summer or at most points this season. With a win at Buffalo, the Chiefs’ odds will drop in half (at least) before next week’s AFC Championship. Even though this is Patrick Mahomes’ first road playoff game, he’s been in the AFC title game five consecutive times. If you think a sixth is in his future, make this bet now.

Another team with some value are the Detroit Lions. Currently at +900, the Lions have a favorable matchup against Tampa Bay at home this weekend. An NFC title game at San Francisco would be a challenge, but again, if you believe in the boys in Honolulu blue, now is a great time to jump on them. They showed in last week’s win over the Lions that they have what it takes to win when the pressure is on.

Even though they face longer odds this week, we like Green Bay over Tampa Bay in the NFC, along with Houston in the AFC. The Buccaneers ravaged an Eagles team that was one of the worst teams in the NFL over the past month and a half. Granted, the same can be said for what Green Bay did to Dallas, considering that the Cowboys haven’t been a strong playoff team for — well, decades now.

But going back to November when the Packers beat the Rams, Lions, and Chiefs, Green Bay is 7-2 over their last nine games, and quarterback Jordan Love has 21 touchdown passes against just one interception. For nearly the first time all season, Green Bay’s offense was healthy last week, and we saw what Love’s complement of wide receivers along with Aaron Jones could do.

Jones now has four games in a row with 100 yards rushing, and a playmaker like that in the postseason is someone who can make a big difference.