NFL Divisional Round Best Bets: Pressure-Packed Playoff Football

After a 4-1 record in last week’s Wild Card weekend best bets, we’re feeling good going into the Divisional round. Also feeling good are the Detroit Lions and their fans, who got to celebrate a playoff victory for the first time in over 30 years.

Not feeling so hot are the teams of the NFC East. The Cowboys were surprisingly sent home by Green Bay in a game Dallas was never competitive in. Meantime, Philadelphia completed a collapse that began with a loss to San Francisco in early December. After a 10-1 start, the Eagles finished 1-6 and are left in tatters. We’ll see if the losses cost both teams their head coaches.

But we’re here to talk about the winners. In this column, we will identify a best bet from each NFL Divisional round game this weekend — four in all. Later in the week, we’ll dissect some prop bets and take a closer look at the Green Bay vs. San Francisco matchup.

Both No. 1 seeds are heavy favorites, and the action gets underway Saturday with the Baltimore Ravens hosting the Houston Texans.

If anything, Baltimore should be well-rested. We haven’t seen presumptive MVP Lamar Jackson and other key Ravens playmakers on the field since a New Year’s Eve slaughter of the Miami Dolphins. It was the second-straight game that saw Jackson carve up a playoff team after doing so on Christmas night against the 49ers.

But this is the playoffs, and thus, this is the narrative on Lamar Jackson.

Jackson’s playoff record sits at 1-3. Most notably, the Ravens flamed out the last time they were the No. 1 seed in a January 2020 loss to the Tennessee Titans.

But if you look at the quarterbacks of Jackson’s caliber who initially struggled in the playoffs, many of them turned it around. Peyton Manning was 3-6 before he went on his first Super Bowl run. It took John Elway until the final two years of his career to win a Super Bowl. Jackson, about to be a two-time NFL MVP, deserves to be mentioned in that rarified air.

Meanwhile, let’s throw out the Week 18 loss the backup Ravens suffered to Pittsburgh. In Baltimore’s previous six games the Ravens played against eventual playoff teams, they were 5-1 and scored 31 points or more in each of them.

For the visitors, C.J. Stroud is looking for much more after virtually sewing up the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. He was 20-of-26 for 264 yards, two touchdowns, and didn’t turn the ball over against a tough Browns defense.

When two offenses that are clicking meet up, conventional wisdom says to favor them even against strong defenses. The total on this one is too low to ignore.

The Play: Texans-Ravens OVER 43.5 (-110 at Bet365)

Green Bay went into Dallas as 7.5-point underdogs. Smart bettors must’ve known what was coming, since that number dropped to 7 in the final hours prior to kickoff.

The Packers finished the regular season 6-2. Jordan Love had 18 touchdowns and just one interception in that span. What he did on Sunday was not a surprise.

What was a surprise was how out-of-sorts the Cowboys defense was — especially on this play.

Now, Green Bay heads to San Francisco Saturday night. The 49ers have been a wrecking ball this season — when they’re on. The NFC’s No. 1 seed is 7-1 in their last eight games of consequence. Brock Purdy was tremendous in last year’s playoffs until an injury derailed him in the NFC Championship game. Christian McCaffrey is said to be good to go after suffering a mild calf strain in Week 17.

But the Packers are a team with nothing to lose. Will they be overmatched by an explosive 49ers team? Perhaps. Will Green Bay be intimidated going in? Not a chance. The opportunity to get the Pack at double digits has passed, but the number is still a lot to ask of the Niners.

The Play: Packers +9.5 (-108 at FanDuel)

The Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions game last Sunday night was a contest befitting a conference championship game. Neither team blinked, both quarterbacks played well, the defensive stars made plays when they had to, and it came right down to the end. Add an incredible atmosphere at Ford Field, and we were hooked.

Not to be lost is the fact that Lions faced the stiffest challenge of a Wild Card weekend winner, defeating a Rams team that finished the season at 7-1 and was loaded with playoff-tested veterans.

Now, Detroit gets the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home in the Divisional round. At first glance, the Bucs looked good in a 32-9 win over the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles. But with tackling like this, any team would probably look good against what became of the Eagles.

In the regular season, Tampa Bay was 1-5 against teams that made the playoffs. That includes a 20-6 Lions victory at Raymond James Stadium in October. The resurgence of Baker Mayfield has been a great story, but the Lions are playing at another level — as evidenced by what they had to do to escape Ford Field with a win last week. They won’t have as much trouble this Sunday.

The Play: Lions -6 (-112 at BetRivers)

In what could be the game of the weekend, it’s chock-full of storylines.

Both teams won last weekend without too much trouble. The Chiefs gained some confidence in wide receiver Rashee Rice, who broke out with a 130-yard receiving day against Miami. Josh Allen didn’t turn the ball over and accounted for four touchdowns against Pittsburgh.

Both teams are jumping up in weight class for their current opponent. We haven’t seen Mahomes tested on the road, Buffalo has had KC’s number (for the most part), and the Bills are available laying less than a field goal. There’s slim value here, but that’s where it lies even with having to lay some extra juice.

The Play: Bills -2.5 (-120 DraftKings)