NFL Week 9 Best Bets: Whoa, We’re Halfway There

We begin with bangers only.

Now that the jam session is out of the way, let’s move on to the halfway mark of the NFL season. We’ve already done the “Can you believe it’s already week…” thing. But yeah, it’s November, and we are starting to see things take shape.

This week, we get Tua vs Mahomes, Dallas at Philly, and a rematch of Allen vs Burrow from last year’s playoffs. We also look at some less-heralded matchups in our NFL Week 9 best bets.

We start in Germany, with who many consider to be the two best teams in the AFC. Kansas City heads to Europe on the heels of one of the most surprising losses of the Patrick Mahomes era. 24-9 in Denver, with no touchdowns from the Chiefs. There were some extenuating circumstances. Mahomes was a late addition to the Chiefs’ injury report with an illness. He gutted it out, but he was far from his normal self.

Now, the Chiefs must travel thousands of miles east after playing on the road, in altitude, and take on a Dolphins team that got back on track at home. But Miami has shown that they are a very different team away from South Florida. Last we checked, Frankfort is nowhere near South Beach. The Fins are also 0-2 against teams with winning records.

Play: Chiefs -2.5 (-110 on PointsBet)

There has been perhaps no better surprise in the NFL than the Houston Texans. Despite last week’s last-second loss in Carolina, Houston is a respectable 3-4–and in the thick of the playoff race. And now, they host Tampa Bay.

The Buccaneers have been quite predictive this season. We have documented several times already this year that their offensive output is largely dependent on their defense forcing turnovers.

In seven games, the Texans have turned the ball over four times. Best in the league. Rookie QB C.J. Stroud has thrown a lone interception. The Texans are not loaded with talent, but they have played with discipline and poise under first-year coach DeMeco Ryans. That will be enough to handle a limited Bucs squad that appears to have peaked.

Play: Texans -2.5 (-115 on BetMGM)

The Arizona Cardinals covered last week. Weird, right?

Down 16 with less than 2:00 left, the Cardinals scored a touchdown but missed the two-point conversion. Down 10, they went for the onside kick, which hit the waiting arms of…Nelson Agholor.

A couple completions and an actually well-timed field goal with plenty of time on the clock later, and the +8.5 hit.

This week, it appears Clayton Tune will start at quarterback after Josh Dobbs was traded to Minnesota, as Kyler Murray inches closer to getting back on the field. He heads to the Dawg Pound, where Myles Garrett is licking his chops.

Play: Browns -7.5 (-110 on FanDuel)

You think Joe Burrow could have done this six weeks ago?

The answer is no. Burrow is once again fully armed and operational and ready for another showdown with Josh Allen and the Bills.

Last year’s regular-season matchup was rightly suspended due to Damar Hamlin’s incident, so we turn to their meeting in the playoffs. Cincinnati won handily, in Orchard Park, thanks in part to the Bills’ defense being depleted. This year, Buffalo’s defense is in a similar state, with CB Tre’Davious White, DL DaQuan Jones and LB Matt Milano likely out for the season.

Von Miller is back but has only played 80 snaps in four games. The pillars of what was supposed to be a vaunted defense are gone, and the Bengals are ascending.

Play: Bengals -3 (-105 on DraftKings)

For two straight weeks, the Los Angeles Chargers have treated us with fabulously entertaining first halves…

…only to slog through a painfully dull second half. Such was the case when a 31-point first half between the Chargers and Bears failed to hit over 45 for the game.

This week, the Bolts travel to New Jersey for a Monday Night matchup with the Jets. Last week, the Jets were flat-out lucky to even force overtime against the Giants, let alone win 13-10. The Chargers just showed they can shut down a poor quarterback with one elite target. And the Jets’ defense will stifle a Chargers team that simply does not like nice things.

Play: Chargers-Jets Under 41.5 (-110 on Caesars)

Last week: 5-0

Season (including GOTW): 36-22