NFL Week 8 Preview: Jaguars vs. Steelers Odds and Best Bets

For the third time in recent weeks, our Game of the Week is one that a fair-minded fan would not have expected to be in this position at the start of the season. 5-2 Jacksonville travels to 4-2 Pittsburgh in one of only two games featuring teams with winning records in Week 8.

The Jaguars come into this game riding a four-game winning streak, with an average margin of victory of 11.3 points per game. Pittsburgh is…well…well, they’re 4-2. The Steelers have been outscored by an average of four points per game but are 4-0 in one-possession games. Head coach Mike Tomlin continues to work his magic.

This game also ends a grueling five-game stretch for the Jaguars, in which they followed back-to-back games in London with a Thursday night road game 11 days later. Five games in four cities, on two continents, all within a month. That might be asking a lot, but let’s see what the numbers tell us.

Tomlin’s reputation as a hard-nosed head coach who preaches toughness is not reflected in his team’s run defense so far this season. Pittsburgh ranks 28^th in rushing yards allowed per game. That is welcome relief for Jaguars RB Travis Etienne. While he has scored two touchdowns in three straight games…

…he has averaged just 3.4 yards per carry in his last two.

Last week, Etienne’s rush yards prop was set at 64.5 against a Saints team that currently ranks 12^th in rushing yards allowed. You will have to pay a tax to hit the over against the Steelers, but that still figures to be money well-spent.

There’s a dirty little secret emanating from Acrisure Stadium. Jaylen Warren is the Steelers’ best running back. Yes, they have 2021 first-round pick Najee Harris, but the numbers don’t lie.

This season, both Harris and Warren are averaging 3.9 yards per carry, with one rushing touchdown and one fumble lost. The difference comes through the passing game. Warren is the superior pass-catcher, ranking second on the team in both receptions and receiving yards. His skills and willingness as a blocker also makes him invaluable.

Enter the Jaguars, who are 31^st in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game. Much of that has been to running backs. They have allowed five running backs to catch at least five passes in a game, including 12 to Alvin Kamara last Thursday night.

Last week, Warren’s receptions prop was set at 2.5, with heavy juice to the over. Feel comfortable laying the 3.5 at a more reasonable price.

If you look at the over/under based on points per game, you’re not seeing the full picture. The projected total based on points and points allowed is roughly 23-19 Jacksonville. That suggests little value on the total. But look deeper.

Both defenses are heavily reliant on turnovers. The Jaguars are first in takeaways; the Steelers are tied for fifth. Pittsburgh has the unfair advantage of having an elite edge rusher with the hands of a receiver.

Both teams rank in the bottom 10 in yards allowed. This tells us one of two things. Either the defenses will force turnovers, setting up short fields for their offense, or they won’t and both teams will be able to move the ball downfield at will.

Both teams are also in the middle of the pack in red zone touchdown percentage allowed, so we should expect at least a couple of touchdowns from each team. A Kenny Pickett game might not scream “shootout,” but the matchup suggests we should see plenty of points scored.

Jacksonville is favored by 2.5-3 points, depending on where you shop. It’s tough to bet against the Steelers getting points at home, but we do not currently see value on the side. At this point, better to hit the over and root for some fireworks.

While you get ready for Week 8, Sidelines has you covered. Check out our top-five picks for the eighth week of the NFL season along with key prop bets to consider.