NFL Week 8 Best Bets: Split the Difference

Linemakers are good at their jobs. They’re not “always right,” as some like to say on television, but they benefit from half of everyone being right (and wrong) every time. They make the gold; they make the rules.

For instance, through seven weeks of the NFL season, home teams are 51-48-3 against the spread. Take away the pushes, and that is a 51.5% rate — below the fabled 52.38% needed for a bettor to break even. Simply put, you can not blindly bet home or road teams and expect to profit. You’ll just bleed out slowly.

But with every rule comes exceptions. There are teams that have shown a significant home/road split so far this year. These are the opportunities we will look to attack for our NFL best bets in week 8.

In last week’s Game of the Week column, we referred to the Dolphins-Eagles matchup as a “you’re not one of us” game. We encouraged you to fade Miami against a member of the league’s upper crust. That came to pass, as the vaunted Dolphins’ offense scored only one offensive touchdown.

At least it was a pretty one.

The Dolphins’ high-powered offense has been stuck in second gear in their last three road games. After scoring 36 in their opener at the Chargers, Miami has averaged just 20.3 points away from South Florida. At home: 47.6 PPG.

This week they are back home and facing a Patriots team that saved its season in an upset win over Buffalo.

History is also on Miami’s side, as they are 8-2 vs the Patriots at home since 2013. At home, in the heat, and angry after a loss, the Dolphins will be a force yet again.

Play: Dolphins -9 (-110 on PointsBet)

Just like with Miami, this one requires us to look past week 1. Since then, look at the home/road splits for the Cowboys. Two blowouts at home, two blowout losses and a narrow win on the road.

After a bye, the Cowboys are back home against a Rams team that appears to have peaked after a strong start. Dallas excels when the deck is stacked in their favor. T.J. Watt ate at Matt Stafford’s expense last week. Micah Parsons, you’re next.

Play: Cowboys -6 (-110 on DraftKings)

Yeah, we’re cheating here. No cameras involved, though.

Jets-Giants is the quadrennial celebration of New Jersey. This time, the Jets get the benefit of playing an extra game in their home stadium. MetLife has been a welcoming host to the Jets this year. They have beaten the Bills and Eagles while taking the Chiefs to the limit. Zach Wilson has been serviceable at MetLife, throwing just one interception in four games. Don’t worry about laying the points against a severely limited Giants offense.

Play: Jets -2.5 (-115 on PointsBet)

Like we said, every rule has an exception. So far we have focused on teams that are superior at home. The Indianapolis Colts are not one of those teams.

The Colts are 1-3 at home and giving up almost 29 points per game. Now forced to play the rest of the season without Anthony Richardson, the Colts might just try to put themselves in a position to draft a receiver whose family is familiar with the greater Indianapolis area.

The Saints are coming off the mini bye after a tough loss at home to Jacksonville last Thursday. Their previous game on the road? A shutout win at New England.

Play: Saints +1.5 (-114 on FanDuel)

Okay, the Ravens are good.

The Cardinals are not.

Now that the hot take portion of the program is out of the way, let’s look at Ravens-Cardinals. Arizona has performed admirably at home. A stunning win over the Cowboys, a game they should have won against the Giants, and a competitive loss amplified by a late-half pick-six vs. the Bengals. As Bill Simmons also noticed, teams that come off impressive wins have struggled the following week. Use that to your advantage getting more than a touchdown in the desert.

Play: Cardinals +8.5 (-110 on BetMGM)

WEEK 7: 1-4

SEASON (including Game of the Week): 29-21