NFL Week 7 Best Bets: We Were Rooting for You!

Hope can be the worst of things. It can give you just enough air to suffocate you, or as an NFL bettor, can give you just enough confidence to hit a slump. These things happen. You can go into a season with a preconceived notion on the quality of a team or player–and continue to bet accordingly even if evidence suggests you should do something different. Sometimes the best thing you can do is to take a hard look in the mirror (or your betting history) and tell that team or player, “We were rooting for you.”

This week, we will look at a handful of teams we were high on at one point early in the season and tell you why that faith appears to have been misplaced. Keep that theme in mind for our NFL Week 7 best bets.

The Patriots are a rudderless ship, ironic given that they are led by the greatest coach in NFL history who has such an affinity for the Navy. They are 1-5 for the first time since 1995 and are just one point better than being the worst team in the NFL in points per game.

Enter Buffalo. They are 4-2, coming off a very pedestrian performance against the Giants. There was a time in which New England flat out owned the Bills. This was known as the “Brady Era.” The Patriots were 32-3 against Buffalo with Tom Brady at the helm. You might have noticed, but that era is over.

The Bills are 6-1 against the Patriots since 2020, including 3-0 at Gillette Stadium. Expect them to get back on track and lay the wood.

Play: Bills -8.5 (-110 on FanDuel)

We have had a love-hate relationship with the Falcons this season. Last week we were high on them, as they faced a Commanders team that had been blown out at home by Chicago. And then…

This week’s challenge: The Buccaneers, who have been reliable for us in recent weeks. Twice we pointed to Tampa Bay’s reliance on turnovers to produce points. Both times, that bet came through. This week, we are relying on Tampa Bay’s ability to force negative plays to serve them well.

Play: Buccaneers Team Total Over 19.5 (-122 on DraftKings)

This column has featured the Green Bay Packers four times in the first six weeks, all betting for them. We are 1-3 in those games, with the only win coming in week 1.

As Einstein said, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.

Denver is 1-5, 0-3 at home, and are getting less than a field goal. Sometimes the line tells you something if you are willing to listen.

Play: Broncos +1.5 (-110 on FanDuel)

Detroit vs. Baltimore is an enticing matchup: 5-1 vs 4-2, though they are winning in very different ways. The Lions are fourth in total offense, whereas the Ravens second in total defense. Save for one play, the Ravens smothered Tennessee at Tottenham Hotspur.

The London part is where we look at this game. The three teams that have played in England so far this season have experienced a bit of jetlag after coming back to the States. The Jaguars, Falcons and Bills have averaged nine points in the first halves of their return games.

The Ravens have been a strong first half team, but we are fading them after the long trip back home.

Play: Lions +1.5 First Half (-110 on Caesars)

The Browns’ win over the previously undefeated 49ers might be the most surprising victory of the season. Ten-point underdogs and with P.J. Walker at quarterback, the Browns leaned on their stellar defense to contain the Niners. This is despite Myles Garrett apparently being more interested in the start of Cavs season.

There is some post-hype fade potential with the Browns going on the road, but we are counting on their defense being portable–and able to take care of Minshew and the Colts.

Play: Browns -1.5 (-115 on BetMGM)

Week 6: 4-1

Season (Including GOTW picks): 26-16