NFL Week 6 Preview: Lions vs. Bucs Odds and Best Bets

Three weeks ago, we looked through the NFL schedule to find games pitting two 2-0 teams against each other. We were surprised to find only one — equally surprising was that it featured the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That week, we did not trust the start the Buccaneers had and rode with the Eagles. That strategy paid off handsomely.

This week, we wanted to find a game featuring two teams with one loss or fewer. Once again, there is only one option; once again, it features the Bucs. Tampa Bay hosts Detroit in what now is shaping up as a potential playoff preview. The question is, should the Buccaneers be trusted more than they were in week 3? Let’s proceed with a look at the odds and our best bets for Lions vs. Bucs.

In week 3, we highlighted that the Buccaneers benefitted offensively from their defense.

“Ten of the Buccaneers’ 47 points have come with their offense gaining exactly zero yards. Stepping up in weight class, the Bucs cannot rely on those empty calories to provide sustenance.”

That came to pass, as Tampa’s only touchdown against the Eagles came in garbage time. It was a similar story in week 4 against New Orleans. The Bucs scored 26 points, but 10 came off of two Saints’ fumbles. The drives totaled a whopping 15 yards.

Tampa Bay has forced 2.5 turnovers per game, while Detroit has given the ball up just six times in five games (1.2 per). Stepping up in weight class (again), the Bucs offense will starve without depending on takeaways.

This one comes down to anticipating game script. If you look at the raw stats, the numbers suggest David Montgomery will struggle to gain yards against a stingy Buccaneers defense. Tampa Bay has only allowed 94.8 yards per game. But that stout run defense was nowhere to be found against the Eagles.

Philadelphia ran for 201 yards on five yards per carry. D’Andre Swift had 130 of those yards.

For the Lions, David Montgomery has been one of the most impactful free-agent signings of the year. He is seventh in the NFL in rushing yards, despite only playing four games. He has been a workhorse, averaging 22 carries per game. This might not be sustainable in the long term, but we’re not there yet. He can still be relied upon to carry the load.

Last week, you could get Montgomery’s rushing prop at 80.5 yards. Carolina had allowed 140.6 yards per game on the ground. Montgomery cleared that with ease, gaining 109 yards, and that was without playing in the fourth quarter. Expect his total to be much lower this week, and be ready to buy the dip.

Are the Detroit Lions the most fun team in the league?

Exhibit B:

We’ve come a long way from Student Body Left, Student Body Right. If Detroit and Miami were to meet in say, mid-February, would anyone complain?

The Lions are well-balanced, they are dynamic, and they are disciplined. Jared Goff is playing the best football of his career. He has completed almost 70% of his passes, with a rating over 104. They are coming off scoring 42 points against Carolina. And they did that without both Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs. So long as one or both return this week, the Lions should be about to TCoB in TB.

While you get ready for Week 6, Sidelines has you covered. Check out our top-five picks for the sixth week of the NFL season along with prop bets to consider.