NFL Week 5 Preview: Cowboys vs. 49ers Odds and Best Bets

Finally, the premier game of an NFL Sunday is actually worth “waiting all day” for.

For NFL fans of a certain age, Cowboys-49ers was THE game. The two teams met in the NFC Championship Game three straight years in the 1990s. They also met in the playoffs the last two seasons, with an ending you might remember from this past January.

In 2023, both Dallas and San Francisco figure to be playoff teams once again. They are a combined 7-1 — the only loss being the Cowboys’ surprising thud at the hands of the Cardinals. A potential playoff preview in early-October, this one figures to have some fireworks. Let’s dive into the odds for Cowboys vs. 49ers.

49ers tight end George Kittle is a few years separated from the best years of his career. He has not reached 1,000 yards receiving since 2019. This season, he has only one game with more than 30 yards. He has been making headlines off the field, but not in the same manner as other notable tight ends.

But this matchup with the Cowboys offers a chance for Kittle to return to form. Dallas has allowed at least 50 yards receiving to two tight ends this season (Tyler Conklin and Hunter Henry). Kittle is far above their weight level. So if you’re looking to fade Kittle this week, I’m afraid I have some…bad news. Take Kittle over 39.5 receiving yards (-119) at Caesars.

The Dallas Cowboys are fourth in the NFL in scoring, averaging 31 points per game. But they have done so in perhaps least predictive way possible. Their first defensive drive of the season ended like this:

That is one of four return touchdowns the Cowboys have scored so far this year. But that is just part of the story: 44 of the team’s 124 points have been scored off turnovers. That is thanks in part to a league-leading +9 turnover differential.

Here’s the rub: the 49ers don’t turn the ball over. They have one giveaway in four games this season. Brock Purdy is no Joe Montana, but he’s also not Zach Wilson or Mac Jones. He plays within the confines of the offense, with the help of three dynamic players in Christian McCaffrey, the afore-mentioned Kittle, and Deebo Samuel.

One more point about the Dallas offense: This is their best offensive play in the red zone in 2023.

The Cowboys have been anemic inside the 20-yard line. They rank 30^th in red zone touchdown percentage. San Francisco is seventh. That is a lot of points to be leaving on the table.

If you don’t expect the 49ers to give up the ball, you can expect them to score. We mentioned Dallas is fourth in the NFL in points per game. San Francisco is third, having scored one more point. And they have done it in a much more sustainable way: Zero return touchdowns and only 12 points scored off turnovers. This offense is precise and far more dangerous than what Dallas brings to the table.

San Francisco was a 2.5-point favorite in the preseason, essentially getting only the homef-ield advantage in the eyes of the sportsbooks. There is a reason the line has shifted up a point in the last month, despite Dallas being a very public team that is off to a strong start. This line has already moved to -4 on some books.

On paper, this looks like a matchup of NFC heavyweights. But after diving into the numbers, this does not appear to be an even contest. As long as the 49ers are not uncharacteristically careless with the football, they have more than enough to take care of Dallas comfortably.

While you get ready for Week 5, Sidelines has you covered. Check out our top-five picks for the third week of the NFL season along with prop bets to consider.