NFL Week 5 Best Bets: You’re Not That Guy

We are now through four weeks of the 2023 NFL season. Essentially, it’s the quarter-pole. Enough time has passed to draw some conclusions. While this is not a “(Insert player or team) is DONE” column, this will seek to identify players (and coaches) who simply are not to be trusted the rest of the season. Quite simply, they’re not that guy.

Here are our picks for the NFL Week 5 best bets.

Here is a look at the Pittsburgh Steelers’ first draft selections over the past few years:

So what has that gotten them? Since 2021, the Steelers have averaged 18.7 points per game. Why 2021? That is when Matt Canada took over as offensive coordinator. They have scored 20 points in 18 of 38 games. One would think that level of investment in the offense would lead to…some offense. No offense, but there’s no offense.

Matt Canada, you’re not that guy.

Play: Ravens -4.5 (-110 on DraftKings)

In the preseason, we offered a case for why Mac Jones had an opportunity to improve in 2023. So far, that has not come to pass.

It would appear Bill O’Brien is not a magic elixir that could cure Jones of the ailments he sustained under Matt Patricia.

Mac Jones, you’re not that guy. The Patriots losing both Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez (perhaps their two best defenders) doesn’t help either.

Play: Saints +1.5 (-110 on BetMGM)

Four weeks of football have shown that Bengals QB Joe Burrow just is not right. Burrow suffered a strained calf early in training camp. We suggested fading the Bengals early on.

Continue doing so. Back to the stats:

When you’re making Mac Jones look good, it’s time to sit.

The Bengals lack the explosive passing game that has made them such a force over the last two years. Unless and until Burrow can show he is close to his normal self, Cincinnati will continue to be a team to fade.

Joe Burrow’s calf, you’re not that guy.

Play: Cardinals +3 (-108 on BetRivers)

“The less of them you have, the more one is worth.”

A friend?

No, it’s interceptions.

Jacksonville really toyed with Desmond Ridder there.

Ridder threw only one interception in his first 96 passes. He threw picks on his next two, with one going the other way to put Atlanta down 17-0 before some of you even made coffee.

Falcons head coach Arthur Smith gave Ridder a vote of confidence on Monday, saying Ridder will continue to be the starter. Despite Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts (all top-10 picks), Atlanta is averaging 15.5 points per game.

Desmond Ridder, you’re not that guy. So long, partner.

Play: Texans +1.5 (-118 on FanDuel)

Who remembers the McDLT? No? Not a surprise, which is why we are bringing in George Costanza to explain it.

Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels started hot. On Halloween 2009, he was 6-0 as an NFL head coach, including a win over his mentor Bill Belichick.

The hot side did not stay hot. Just 402 days later, the Broncos fired McDaniels.

Fast-forward 11 years as an offensive coordinator, and McDaniels is back in charge. It’s not going well. McDaniels is 7-14 in Las Vegas and was widely criticized for kicking a field goal down eight points in the closing minutes of week 3.

This week, the Raiders face a Green Bay team that’s off extra rest and with a thorn in their side. And McDaniels might have one eye looking ahead to another match-up with Belichick, and another eye looking for the axe over his head.

Josh McDaniels, you’re not that guy.

Play: Packers +1.5 (-115 on FanDuel)

WEEK 4: 2-3

SEASON: 9-11