NFL Week 5 Prop Bets: Rise of Stroud, Fall of Giants

Week 4 saw some teams play like they’re capable of playing in February (Buffalo Bills) with others coming back down to Earth (Miami Dolphins). This week, there are plenty of intriguing matchups that could have playoff implications. Who will perform in these critical games? It’s time to analyze the three best player/team prop bets for Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season.

The Houston Texans were not a good team last year. The Texans finished 3-13-1, but missed out on the first-overall pick due to their improbable win in the final week of the season. It seemed like an unfortunate victory for Houston, but so far, it looks like a blessing in disguise. The Carolina Panthers selected Bryce Young No. 1 overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. That left C.J. Stroud available for Houston at pick two.

Stroud has certainly looked the part since entering the league. The former Ohio St. QB is fourth in the NFL in passing yards. Stroud has six touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a passer rating over 100. He’s gone over 300 yards passing twice in four weeks.

The Texans travel to the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, and Stroud’s over/under for passing yards is 240.5. We suggest taking the over. Stroud has surpassed that total every week this season.

Stroud is also on pace to shatter Andrew Luck’s NFL rookie record for most passing yards in a season (4,374). The Falcons have been stout in the secondary this season led by A.J. Terrell and Jessie Bates. However, Stroud went over 240 yards in his first NFL start against an even better Baltimore secondary.

Good defense. Bad defense. It doesn’t matter. Stroud should have no trouble hitting the over this week. Bonus Stroud prop bet: +200 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at DraftKings.

With the exception of one half against the Cardinals, the New York Giants have looked awful this season. Big Blue paid quarterback Daniel Jones $160 million ($82 million fully guaranteed) over four years this offseason. It hasn’t exactly worked out. New York has scored the fewest amount of points in the league. Jones has thrown just two touchdowns with six interceptions. On top of that, the Giants offensive line let up 11 sacks last week. That’s one of the worst performances in NFL history.

New York’s reward for its Monday night “performance” is a road matchup with the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. The Giants’ over/under for total points is 19.5 with -110 odds to bet in either direction at Fanduel Sportsbook. We love the under on this total.

Miami hasn’t been a great defense so far. The Dolphins allowed 48 points to the Bills last week. But New York has scored 15 points in three games that weren’t against Arizona. The Fins are also back at home and highly motivated to bounce back.

Sunday projects to be a hot day at Hard Rock Stadium, and the Giants will have to deal with the heat much more than the home team due to the configuration of the stadium. Even with a potential Saquon Barkley return, the Giants shouldn’t reach the 20-point plateau.

Back in 2021, Brandon Aiyuk was in the San Francisco 49ers’ doghouse. Aiyuk showed promise as a rookie the previous season, but he only recorded nine catches in his first six games of 2021. Fast forward to this year: Aiyuk has quietly had a really strong start to the season. The former first-round pick averages over 100 yards-per-game in 2023 even though Aiyuk missed half of week two with an injury.

San Fran’s next opponent is the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. Aiyuk’s receiving yards over/under is 57.5 at Underdog Fantasy. We like the over here.

First of all, fellow 49ers receiver Deebo Samuel is injured. If Deebo can’t go, Aiyuk should definitely go over the total. Even if Samuel does play, he’s likely going to be dinged up. Based on the injury, Aiyuk shouldn’t have an issue going over 57.5 yards.

The Cowboys also lost All-Pro cornerback Trevon Diggs for the season a couple weeks ago. Dallas’ secondary promptly got torched against Arizona but did bounce back nicely against New England. The 49ers have a much better team than the Cardinals or Patriots. It’s likely the strongest team Dallas has faced this season. Aiyuk should capitalize against a weakened secondary.

Before you go, check out our Best Bets for Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season.