2023 NFL Odds Preview: New England Patriots Best Bets

The New England Patriots are perhaps the most interesting uninteresting team in the NFL. The halcyon days of Brady, Gronk, Edelman and company are long gone. Patriots fans are now entering their fifth season since the team’s last postseason victory. This is the team’s longest-such stretch since their surprise Super Bowl appearance in 1996.

Expectations are low, given their most immediate competition plus the at-times puzzling moves they made in the offseason. No real investment at offensive tackle? DeAndre Hopkins? Nah! The offensive corps, putting it best, would win the Patriots a lot of fantasy championships. In 2019–with Juju, Zeke, and Henry.

This remains a heady time for fans across the league who long waited for the end of the Patriots dynasty. That is over. A glance at the 2023 Patriots suggest they are not actively “bad,” but rather, let’s put it “aggressively middling.” With that said, here are three ways you can attack the 2023 New England Patriots odds wise.

The 2022 New England Patriots went 8-9 with a combination of (former defensive coach) Matt Patricia and (former special teams coach) Joe Judge as the primary offensive play-calling apparatus.

Nuff said. Okay, not really.

But seriously, the addition of Bill O’Brien (a man with a history of leading offenses) will be a stark improvement over what the Patriots set up for Mac Jones and company last year. The additions of Ezekiel Elliott and Juju Smith-Schuster provide much-needed depth to the skill position groups. Provided they get at bare minimum competent play from the tackle position, the offense will be productive.

Defensively, the team returns most of its starting corps that finished No. 3 in Football Outsiders’ Defensive DVOA Rankings (First in the AFC) last season. Christian Gonzalez offers the upside at cornerback the team has not had since Stephon Gilmore won Defensive Player of the Year in 2019.

The schedule is daunting, with the Patriots scheduled to play Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott. But the overall talent on the team and workable schedule around the edges will be enough to get the Patriots to at least 7-10. That’s good enough to surpass the win total of 6.5 at DraftKings.

Let’s go back to last season, and the afore-mentioned Patricia/Judge combination. With those gentlemen as Mac Jones’ primary offensive intelligentsia, Jones threw for 2,997 yards in 14 games in 2022.

Bill O’Brien will put Jones in a much better position to succeed, and the offensive weaponry is at least competent, if not dynamic. If you assume Jones will not miss time due to performance or injury issues, Jones will easily clear this number. Jones threw for 3,801 yards in 2021.

Jones has shown that under a real offensive coordinator (Josh McDaniels in 2021), he is a capable NFL starter who can be productive. Is he a “winning” quarterback? Remains to be seen, but that’s not the bet here. Confidently take this over at BetMGM.

Matthew Judon is the bright spot in Bill Belichick’s 2021 free agent spending spree. Nelson Agholor and Jonnu Smith are gone. Jalen Mills appears to have switched positions. Kendricke Bourne and Hunter Henry remain secondary pieces on offense at best.

Judon posted 28.5 sacks in two seasons with New England, almost matching his output in five seasons in Baltimore. But a trend has developed. In 2021, just three of his 12.5 sacks came in the last six games of the season. Last year, Judon had 13 sacks in the first 11 games. The all-time record was in sight. He finished with just two the rest of the way.

Only 21 players have totaled at least 12 sacks in either of the last two years. Myles Garrett is the only player to have done it in the last three. Judon got there in 2021 and ’22. Garrett is 27. Judon just turned 31. History and age show it is highly unlikely Judon gets there again. This bet has value at FanDuel.