NFL Week 11 Prop Bets: Ride Stroud While He’s Hot

Last week, we went back to the basics. It worked.

Joe Burrow threw for over 300 yards, Christian McCaffrey exceeded his total, and the Chargers did more than the bare minimum. Since the fundamentals worked, why change? Here are the three best player/team prop bets for Week 11 of the 2023 NFL season.

How good is this rookie? The Houston Texans won 10 games total in the three years prior to this season. The Texans have already won five contests this year–thanks in large part to C.J. Stroud. The 2023 second-overall pick is the front-runner for the Offensive Rookie of the Year and is a dark-horse MVP candidate. 

The Texans phenom averages over 291 passing yards per game. That’s why we were pretty surprised to find out his over/under for this week’s matchup against the Arizona Cardinals is only 249.5 yards at Underdog Fantasy. We highly suggest pouncing on this over. Stroud is a rookie, but he sure isn’t playing like one.

The Cardinals surprisingly have a relatively strong pass defense despite being 2-8. However, keep in mind that Arizona is typically trailing in a lot of games. This causes the opponent to run the ball more–as evident in the Cleveland, Baltimore, and Seattle games.

That being said, we’re confident Stroud is going to be the exception. DeShaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, and Geno Smith haven’t exactly lit the world on fire with passing yards this season. At this point, you can bank on Stroud to deliver a strong performance. With his track record and a friendly matchup at home, he shouldn’t have an issue surpassing his yardage total for this week.

Tyreek Hill didn’t have the greatest game by his standards the last time the Miami Dolphins took the field. It was supposed to be his “revenge” game against the Chiefs, but the All-Pro was held to a measly 62 yards. This performance is a one-off and with Miami set to return from bye, he should bounce-back in a big way at home this week.

Hill’s over/under for receiving yards against the Las Vegas Raiders is 96.5 at PrizePicks. We like the over on this one. Hill could feast against the Raiders secondary.

Like Arizona, Las Vegas has a pretty solid pass defense despite its mediocre record. But those stats are skewed a bit with their last two games coming against the Giants and Jets, who combined for a whopping zero touchdowns against the Raiders. In addition, No. 1 wide-receivers like Hill have fared well against the Raiders. Garrett Wilson had 93 yards last week and Amon-Ra St. Brown went for 108 yards in two of the past three weeks.

A couple weeks ago, we suggested taking the under on Ceedee Lamb’s receiving total. Spoiler alert, don’t bet against great players. We’ve learned our lesson. If you’re going to bet on Tyreek, then bet the over. 

Raise your hand if you had the Cleveland Browns beating the Baltimore Ravens last week? Aside from Browns fans, our guess is not many of you raised your hand. And truthfully, even Browns fans were probably throwing in the towel when it was 31-17 in favor of the purple team in the fourth quarter.

Well, Cleveland defied the odds and won outright. The Browns have won four of their last five and are firmly in the mix for the AFC North.

Cleveland’s next opponent is the divisional rival Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are also 6-3 but have been out-gained in every game this season. Our suggestion isn’t to touch team yards, but rather team points. The Browns’ over/under is 20.5 with +104 odds to bet the over at FanDuel Sportsbook. We really like this bet, especially at plus odds.

The Browns faced the Steelers back in week 2. Cleveland managed to put up a respectable 22 points even in a loss. That battle was in Pittsburgh. On Sunday, Cleveland has home-field advantage. 

Pittsburgh has allowed teams to go over 20.5 points in five games this season, including the Cleveland game. On top of that, the Browns have surpassed that total six times on the year. Cleveland’s offense isn’t perfect, and it’ll largely depend on the health of Deshaun Watson. Assuming he’s good to go, then the Browns should score over 20.5 points.