NFL Week 11 Best Bets: These Go to 11

Friends, we made it. We survived Week 10 of the NFL season. The league will point to the six games that were won on walk-off field goals (setting a league record). But all you have to do is look at the so-called “island games” to see how dismal the slate was.

Those three games, put in standalone spots with the eyes of the nation on them, combined for three offensive touchdowns. It would have been four if not for perhaps the worst pass the NFL has seen since Garo Ypremian:

It would be a fitting conclusion to Mac Jones’ career as a Patriot if that is the last pass he throws in their uniform.

Monday night’s Broncos 24, Bills 22 was entertaining, but don’t confuse that with it being a good game. Just ask now-former Bills offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, who lost his job less than 12 hours after Buffalo’s four-turnover performance.

This week…much better.

Why not just make Week 10 better, and make that week a little better? Let’s go to Week 11 and our NFL best bets.

We have followed a few themes so far this season. One of them is to pounce on the Miami Dolphins at home. The difference is stark. Miami is much more efficient offensively in South Florida than they are anywhere else, both running and passing. This week, they get the Las Vegas Raiders in their first road game since they replaced Josh McDaniels with Antonio Pierce as head coach. The Raiders have a league-average defense, buoyed by getting to face Tommy DeVito and Zach Wilson the last two weeks.

At home, off a bye, and against a West Coast team traveling east, the Dolphins should face little resistance. They might put up a tasty 40-burger on Vegas but will easily get into the 30s.

Play: Dolphins Team Total over 30.5 (-105 on DraftKings)

It is not fun to fade Tommy DeVito. He seems like a likable kid, thrust into a position he is simply not equipped to handle. An undrafted rookie who had a hit-or-miss career at both Syracuse and Illinois, DeVito earned a spot as the Giants No. 3 quarterback. Then Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor both went on IR, and DeVito got the nod (not going to say made man again). And it’s not his fault.

The New York Giants do not have an NFL-level offense. Saquon Barkley is the meme of the Ferrari in the mobile home driveway. There remains value in fading them in whatever way you can, even in a game at Washington.

Play: Giants Team Total under 13.5 (-125 on Caesars)

I mean…

The play of the week with a camera angle that might give you vertigo, but it will be worth it. The Arizona Cardinals have their Franchise back. Kyler Murray put the team on his back, en route to a comeback win over Atlanta.

Now the Cardinals go for their first road W of the season in Houston. The Texans have been an incredible story, led by legitimate MVP-candidate C.J. Stroud. I mean…

This line reflects an ascending team against one that is still struggling. But Murray changes the calculus, and there is value in taking the points.

Play: Cardinals +4.5 (-115 on FanDuel)

Just… how?

The Pittsburgh Steelers have been out-gained in every game this season.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 6-3.

Somehow, both these statements are true.

The Steelers rank 28^th in both offense and defense. But they are second in the NFL in turnover differential, and this week play a Browns team that has thrown the second-most interceptions in the league. The Steelers have alligator blood and will hang around in this one.

Play: Steelers +4 (-108 on DraftKings)

It was nice to see the 49ers play for the first time in a few weeks. What — they only had one bye week?

Kittle. McCaffrey. Deebo. Williams. The 49ers are once again fully armed and operational.

And this week, they host Tampa Bay, who we have found to be a reliable dance partner. The Bucs feast on turnovers. The 49ers have the sixth-fewest in the league. They will provide the spark needed to bring this game over the total.

Play: Buccaneers-49ers over 41.5 (-110 on FanDuel)

WEEK 10: 2-3

SEASON (Including Game of the Week): 45-29