NFL Week 1 Preview: Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets Odds and Best Bets

In a highly anticipated AFC East showdown, the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets open their respective seasons on Monday, Sept. 11 in front of a national TV audience. With new faces and fierce rivals involved, the first Monday Night Football matchup of the season won’t disappoint. We preview Bills vs. Jets with a look at the odds and our three best bets for the Week 1 matchup at MetLife Stadium.

The Jets and Bills split games last season for the first time in three years. New York broke a four-game losing streak against Buffalo back in November, but the Bills rebounded a month later. In the two’s first game of 2023, Buffalo enters as 2.5-point favorites at Caesars Sportsbook. We like the Bills to cover that spread and start the season hot, especially if the spread stays within a field goal.

Buffalo hasn’t had much turnover on offense besides the addition of rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid. The Bills are still led by quarterback Josh Allen. Receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, along with running back James Cook, are all used to the system. That familiarity, coupled with a defense that performed well in 2022, means no communication issues and a fast start in 2023.

On the other hand, the Jets improved over the off-season, trading for quarterback Aaron Rodgers. They signed running back Dalvin Cook and receivers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb to round out a deep offense. That’s a lot of changes. It’ll take time for everyone to fully understand the new system, even if training camp, preseason, and prior relationships exist. The Jets may have a hard time quickly clicking into gear against an elite team.

The Bills have won five of the last six matchups, and New York hasn’t put up more than 30 points against Buffalo since 2017. Consistency and continuity are pivotal, and the Bills have both heading into 2023. Take Buffalo, even on the road.

Both the Bills and Jets offenses have high praise heading into 2023. This may incline betters to take the over for points, but ignore that and take the under. DraftKings Sportsbook has the current points total at 46.5 (-110).

Recent history points towards an under of 46.5 points. Last season, the Jets and Bills never combined to score more than 38 points in their two matchups. That trend tracks back to 2019 too. In the last four seasons — eight games between the Jets and Bills — the total was over 46 just once. When New York and Buffalo face off, it’s an expected defensive battle.

As we already discussed, New York finally has a solidified starting quarterback in Rodgers. It will affect the Jets’ offensive output, but we don’t expect that change to be enough. In 2022, Buffalo ranked in the top five in interceptions and opponent rushing yards, and top 10 in opponent passing yards. The Bills should rank similarly this season. And the Jets are better on defense too. Both defenses should hold up enough in Week 1 to prevent more than 47 total points.

Stefon Diggs has consistently been one of the best NFL receivers for over five seasons. Garrett Wilson broke out during his rookie year in New York, winning AP Offensive Rookie of the Year. And both players come into 2023 with something to prove. Diggs and Wilson will be on opposite sides for this Week 1 matchup, and they should ball out to start the season. Parlay Diggs (over 69.5 yards) and Wilson (over 68.5 yards) to both exceed their receiving props. FanDuel Sportsbook currently has these odds around +261, which feels like a steal.

Let’s start with Buffalo’s Diggs, who has a dominant rapport with Josh Allen. Diggs had 70-plus receiving yards in 11 of his 16 regular season games in 2022 and did it three straight times to start last year. He was the fifth most-targeted player in the NFL and had 10 or more targets in eight games. Expect Allen to look for Diggs early and often, and Diggs should deliver for at least 70 yards.

For the Jets, Wilson had an impressive rookie season while New York’s quarterback situation was in limbo. Under three different signal-callers, the youngster had 1,103 receiving yards and was in the top 10 in targets. Now with Rodgers, Wilson has someone that will elevate his game. We know Rodgers wants to make a statement in his first home game, and a heavy connection with Wilson is the first step he’ll take. The young receiver should end up with over 69 receiving yards against the Bills.

While you get ready for Week 1, sidelines has you covered. Check out our top-five picks for the opening week of the NFL season along with prop bets to consider.