NFL Week 1 Prop Bets: High on Fields, Robinson, and Jaguars

The NFL is officially back! This is a time where everyone can feel optimistic. The opening week always has its fair share of surprises and can set the tone for the whole season. While you can check out the odds and our picks column, it’s now time to analyze the three best player/team prop bets for Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season.

Last season, Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields showed improvement. In 15 games, the former first-round pick threw for 17 touchdowns and rushed for another eight scores as well. Fields’ 25 total touchdowns were 13th in the NFL in 2022. 

The Bears open the season at home against the Green Bay Packers. The bet to take is Fields to score a touchdown at any time. The best odds can be found at Fanduel Sportsbook at +145. This is a bet that should easily cash with excellent value.

Fields’ biggest strength is running the football. The Bears signal caller became the third quarterback in NFL history to rush for 1,000+ yards in a season last year. There’s no denying Fields’ talent.

Fields has been a trendy breakout pick for 2023 due to his rushing prowess and Chicago adding more weapons, mainly wide receiver D.J. Moore. With this bet, we’re not asking for Fields to have a monster game or year. It’s one touchdown, and Fields should be able to deliver on Sunday.

One of the biggest surprises of the 2022 season was the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville picked first in the 2021 and ’22 NFL Drafts but managed to win the AFC South last year. There were several reasons for the Jags’ turnaround. A weak division helped, but perhaps the biggest one was the emergence of quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Other factors include hiring head coach Doug Pederson, running back Travis Etienne returning from injury, and signing wide receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones.

Jacksonville begins the campaign on the road against the Indianapolis Colts. The Jaguars over/under for total points is 24.5 with -106 odds to bet the over at BetRivers Sportsbook. We really like this bet for a couple of reasons.

With the Colts starting rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, we expect him to make mistakes. That bodes well for the Jaguars, who should have multiple chances to operate with a short field.

As far as the Jaguars themselves, their offense should look mostly the same this season as it did from last year. The unit finished 10th in the NFL in scoring. That’s good, and now factor in that they added Calvin Ridley to their receiver room. 

Ridley was suspended for all of the 2022 season due to gambling. In 2021, the wide-out played just five games. But in 2020, Ridley was one of the best receivers in the NFL with 1,374 yards. That earned him a spot on the NFL’s AP All-Pro 2nd Team. He may not be the player he once was, but there’s no question he makes the Jags team better. Jacksonville should have an elite offense and it should come out firing against Indianapolis, a team it has scored 24 or more against in the last three meetings.

The Atlanta Falcons used the No. 8 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to select Texas running back Bijan Robinson. Robinson is one of the best running back prospects to come out of college in a very long time. The tailback possesses All-Pro potential with his combination of size, speed, and pass-catching ability. 

Atlanta hosts the Carolina Panthers to begin 2023. Robinson’s over/under for rushing yards is 71.5 with -137 odds in either direction at PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy. Expect it at other sportsbooks as the week goes on. We recommend taking the over.

Running back is the position group with arguably the easiest transition from college to the NFL. We’ve seen first-round running backs like Saquon Barkley, Najee Harris, Ezekiel Elliott, and Christian McCaffrey make immediate impacts in their rookie seasons. Bijan shouldn’t be any different.

Carolina’s run defense in 2022 wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t spectacular either. The Panthers gave up 4.3 yards-per-carry which was 11th in the league. However, they were 18th in rushing yards allowed. Carolina has a few pieces up front that can make a difference, but overall the unit is average. Expect Robinson to show-out early this season.