NFL Week 1 Picks: The Trend Is Your Friend to Start 2023

We made it. As fans, we have been marked safe from the 2023 NFL preseason. Now comes, as the late great Tom Petty put it, the hardest part. Waiting the final few days before kickoff. Without prior-week games to look back upon, we must rely on a set of trends that can help us start the season on a winning note. Here are your NFL Week 1 picks for best bets, focusing on how recent trends can help you build your bankroll.

This has nothing to do with the current state of the New England Patriots‘ roster. At the time of this writing, the Pats have one quarterback and two running backs on the active roster. What we are talking about here is the trend towards unders in Patriots’ week 1 games.

In the post-Tom Brady era, there have been a total of 32, 33 and 27 points scored in Patriots week 1 games (all against Miami). Even in Brady’s last two seasons with New England, the totals were 36 and 47. The Patriots have uncertainty at offense but a stout defense. Combine that with Philadelphia’s strong defensive front, and this game figures to be relatively low scoring.

The Play: Philadelphia-New England under 44.5 (DraftKings)

The Kansas City Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes.

Wait, you want more? Ugh, fine.

While the Patriots tend to start slow, the Kansas City Chiefs have been virtually unstoppable in week 1. With Patrick Mahomes under center, the Chiefs have won by an average of 13 points per game in the season opener. They are playing at home, in the season kickoff game, against America’s newest sweethearts in the Detroit Lions. Detroit will be formidable, but this is not their time.

The Play: Kansas City -6.5 vs. Detroit (Caesars Sportsbook)

Frank Reich is entering his sixth season as an NFL head coach. He has a winning record in that time. Want to know how many wins he has in week 1? Nada. This is as close as he has come.

Reich is 0-4-1 in week 1 games. After five years with the Colts, he brings a new team with the No. 1 overall pick into Atlanta to face a Falcons team with some promise. This may be one of the only games this season in which the Falcons have the edge at quarterback.

The Play: Atlanta -3.5 vs. Carolina (FanDuel)

If you don’t understand that reference, then you haven’t seen Shakespeare the way it’s meant to be played.

The Cincinnati Bengals are rightfully one of the favorites to win the division, the conference, and the whole enchilada this year. But as is the case with many great teams, the Bengals seem to have a bugaboo. The Cleveland Browns have beaten Cincinnati at home in all three years of the Taylor/Burrow regime. Granted, Burrow was injured in 2020, and the Bengals rested their starters in 2021. But last year’s game was a blowout under the lights. Additionally, Deshaun Watson returns for his first full season since 2020, and it is unclear how Burrow will fare after his scare at training camp a month ago.

Take the dogs in the Dawg Pound, then catch a fade on the Bengals’ Super Bowl odds.

The Play: Cleveland +2.5 (ML +114) vs. Cincinnati (DraftKings)

The long national nightmare is over for Chicago Bears fans. They are no longer faced with playing Aaron Rodgers twice a year. Unfortunately, they run into the misfortune of still being the Chicago Bears.

D.J. Moore will provide the Bears–and Justin Fields–an enticing target. But this offense is still very much a work in progress. And while it may be fun to throw some dirt on the Cheeseheads, Green Bay’s offense retains Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon, and potential breakout candidate Christian Watson. Jordan Love is getting the chance to spread his wings in the same way Rodgers did when he replaced Brett Favre in 2008. How’d that first game against the Packers turn out?

The Pick: Green Bay +1.5 (ML +100) at Chicago (BetMGM)