NFL Power Rankings: Divisional Round Playoff Edition

The NFL is at what many believe to be the best weekend of football of the year: the (weirdly named) Divisional round of the postseason, and we’re here for it with our updated NFL playoff power rankings.

Here’s our look at the remaining eight teams along with why they will (or won’t) reach Super Bowl 57 next month in the NFL Playoff Power Rankings.

Why the Chiefs Will Reach the Super Bowl: Patrick Mahomes didn’t miss a beat despite losing Tyreek Hill over the offseason. The Chiefs also lost their three games this year by a combined 10 points. They enjoyed a week off and will host upstart Jacksonville, while Buffalo and Cincinnati will battle it out after tougher-than-expected games this past weekend. This gives the Chiefs the edge in our NFL Playoff Power Rankings and in the Super Bowl odds, where Kansas City is the favorite at +310.

Why They Won’t: The Chiefs needed overtime to escape against Houston and Tennessee and lost to the lowly Colts. In the AFC Championship, they will either have to beat a Bengals team that’s won three in a row against them or won’t have the advantage of playing Buffalo at Arrowhead Stadium like they were able to the past two postseasons.

Why the Bengals Will Reach the Super Bowl: The loser of the Super Bowl typically has a hangover the following year. After a shaky start, however, the Bengals won the AFC North again and are now 4-1 in the playoffs under Joe Burrow after beating Baltimore last week. After winning on the road last playoffs, they are battle-tested and won’t be afraid to do it again.

Why They Won’t: While the Bengals did beat the Chiefs last year, Buffalo will provide a far greater challenge than Tennessee did in this round a year ago. Baltimore also provided a blueprint on how to stop the Bengals offensively on Sunday night.

Why the Bills Will Reach the Super Bowl: The Bills‘ three losses were a combined eight points. Damar Hamlin‘s life-threatening injury in the first quarter at Cincinnati in Week 17 also prevented them from securing home-field advantage. But with a win this week, they will face Kansas City in Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium. That’s a much better scenario than having to go to Arrowhead for the third-straight January.

Why They Won’t: Buffalo has been careless with the ball on occasion this year. Josh Allen has thrown multiple interceptions in six of 17 games, including two vs. Miami last week. Those mistakes were overcome against a Dolphins team starting a third-string quarterback. But it won’t hold up vs. Cincy or KC.

Why the 49ers Will Reach the Super Bowl: The 49ers had the defense and ability of playmaker Deebo Samuel in last year’s playoff run, which was enough to get them to the final minute of the NFC Championship game. Now, they have running back Christian McCaffrey and unexpected quarterback sensation Brock Purdy, who is doing his best Tom Brady 2002 impression. Purdy had a shaky start but still led SF to 41 points against Seattle, which was the sixth time in seven games Purdy has led SF to at least 33 points.

Why They Won’t: The NFC East has proven to be the best division in football this year, as three of the four teams left in the NFC call that division home. The Cowboys and Giants both played well in the wild card round, and an NFC title game would be in Philadelphia.

Why the Eagles Will Reach the Super Bowl: The Eagles were able to buy a couple more weeks of rest for Jalen Hurts, who performed at an MVP level before hurting his shoulder in December. Philly is also the only team in the league to rank in the top five on both offense and defense. They face a Giants team they dominated last month and then would host the NFC Championship game.

Why They Won’t: The 14-3 record was great, but it was 1-2 over their last three games. They didn’t have Hurts in those two games, but he wasn’t a factor in Dallas putting up 40 on the Eagles. Hurts was also quite limited in a 22-16 win over the Giants’ backups in Week 18. If he can’t run, Philly will not beat elite teams.

Why the Cowboys Will Reach the Super Bowl: Dallas had the most dominant performance of the playoffs by far in a 31-14 win over Tampa Bay Monday night. Dak Prescott overcame a shaky few weeks to throw five touchdown passes, and the defense pressured Tom Brady into several mistakes.

Why They Won’t: Dallas hasn’t reached the NFC Championship game since 1995. The 49ers beat the Cowboys in Dallas during last year’s playoffs, and there are questions at kicker: Brett Maher missed four (!) extra-point attempts at Tampa Bay.

Why the Giants Will Reach the Super Bowl: The Giants are playing with a ton of confidence, and their offense is performing at their highest level of the season. Daniel Jones picked a great time to have the best game of his career, throwing for over 300 yards and two scores while running for over 70 and not turning the ball over in Sunday’s win at Minnesota.

Why They Won’t: Minnesota had one of the worst pass defenses in the league, while the Eagles have the best. If the Giants can somehow get past Philly, they were soundly defeated by Dallas twice this year, and it would be tough to see the G-Men keeping up with the 49ers’ offense.

Why the Jaguars Will Reach the Super Bowl: The Jags are last in the NFL Playoff Power Rankings, but being last is better than not being included at all. After overcoming a 27-0 deficit against the Chargers, Jacksonville comes into KC as a team with nothing to lose and a coach in Doug Pederson who isn’t afraid to make the aggressive calls that are needed to win playoff games as an underdog.

Why They Won’t: The Jaguars have fallen behind big in many of the games that they ended up winning this year. Don’t expect another miracle comeback if they end up down double digits in Kansas City, Buffalo, or Cincinnati. The Jaguars have the longest NFL odds of any team this weekend to win, as a +8.5 underdog.