NFL Picks and Predictions Week 4

By Akiva Wienerkur   September 30, 2021 

NFL Picks and Predictions Week 4

Five undefeated teams remain entering NFL Week 4, but only three teams are 3-0 against the spread so far this season. The Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos are the only two teams both 3-0 straight up and against the spread. With trends becoming clearer for the NFL odds this week, picks and predictions have plenty of data to lean on.

Last week, the Under came away as the runaway winner. The Under hit 11 times in Week 3, and holds a 28-20 lead on the Over so far in 2021. Road teams hold a 26-22 mark against the spread this season, and road underdogs went 6-6 last week. Home underdogs are 11-8 against the spread so far. Away underdogs are 18-11 in 2021.

Some early season surprises have affected futures odds, with some teams seeing their stocks rising. Here’s a look at each NFL Week 4 game, with best odds, picks and predictions for each contest.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals Picks and Predictions

When: Thursday, September 30th, 8:20 PM

Where: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH

Moneyline Spread Totals
Jaguars Best Odds +275 (BetMGM) +7/-110 (DraftKings) Under 45.5/-105 (PointsBet)
Bengals Best Odds -312 (DraftKings) -7.5/+100 (BetMGM) Over 46.5/-104 (FanDuel)
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase (1) reaches to make a touchdown catch ahead of Pittsburgh Steelers cornerback James Pierre (42) in the second quarter of the NFL Week 3 game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh on Sunday, Sept. 26, 2021. Sam Greene/The Enquirer

The Jacksonville Jaguars play the Cincinnati Bengals in the NFL’s Week 4 Thursday Night Football game. This contest pits the last two No. 1 overall selections, Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence, against one another in a high-profile matchup of future stars. While Jacksonville has stumbled to a winless start in 2021, the Bengals enter this matchup coming off an upset win in Pittsburgh. Cincinnati won straight up, despite entering as a 2.5-point underdog on the road. The Bengals host a game as favorites for the first time this season.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3, 0-3 ATS) took their 18th consecutive loss, but they looked pretty good through two and a half quarters on Sunday. The Jaguars held a 19-10 lead in the third quarter and had an odds-on chance to cover the eight-point spread at home. But a botched flea flicker turned into a pick-six for the Cardinals and Jacksonville took another L.

Trevor Lawrence feels a long way from Clemson these days. Lawrence has turned the ball over nine times in his first three games, with seven interceptions, including two on Sunday against Arizona. Lawrence went 22-of-34 for 219 yards, with a touchdown and the two INTs. He’s currently on pace for 40 interceptions in his first season. That would smash the current rookie record of 28 set by Peyton Manning back in 1998.

It’s not all on Lawrence, though. His pass catchers have done little to create consistent separation. His offensive line stands in the middle of the pack in terms of protection, allowing 19 pressures and five sacks through three games. The Jags passing attack ranks 27th, averaging just 211.6 yards per game. Lawrence is tied with New York’s Zach Wilson with the most interceptions this season (7). He throws an interception on 5.9 percent of the time, which ranks second behind Wilson (6.7). Lawrence faces a Cincinnati defense that’s already intercepted three passes this season.

The Cincinnati Bengals (2-1, 3-0 ATS) picked up perhaps their biggest win of the Joe Burrow era with their 24-10 victory over the Steelers. The win marks the Bengals’ first in Pittsburgh since 2015. Cincinnati protected Burrow, snapping the Steelers streak of 75 straight games with a sack. It helped that Pittsburgh played without T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith. It also helped that Burrow has built in chemistry with his top receiver, Ja’Marr Chase, thanks to their days at LSU.

Burrow completed 14-of-18 passes for 172 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Two of the three scores went to Chase. It was a nice bounce back effort for Burrow after his three INT day in Week 2. Joe Mixon provided support on the ground, gaining 90 yards on 18 carries. This group targets a Jags defense that ranks 28th in both points allowed (30.3) and passing yards allowed (302.3) and total yards allowed (418).

Cincinnati beat the Jaguars 33-25 at Paul Brown Stadium last October. It was Burrow’s first win as a pro and he threw for 300 yards in that one. Mixon ran all over the Jacksonville defense, gaining 151 yards and scoring two touchdowns on 25 carries.

The Jaguars come to this one 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games, and 0-7 straight up in their last seven road games. The Bengals, meanwhile, sport 4-2 marks both against the spread and straight up in their last six contests. For both teams, the under has hit in consecutive weeks after seeing the over hit in Week 1.

The Jaguars have lost each of their three games this season by double digits, but they were more competitive against Arizona in Week 3. They’ll need a big day from James Robinson to take the pressure off Lawrence in this one, and they’ll have to get to Burrow to keep this close. Jacksonville also needs kicker Josh Lambo to figure out whatever’s ailing him, considering he’s 0-for-3 in field goal attempts this season and missed two point-after attempts in Week 3. But the Bengals are rolling and need this one before a big matchup against Green Bay in Week 5.

Picks and Predictions

Cincinnati 27, Jacksonville 20

ML: CIN -312 (DraftKings); Spread: CIN -7.5/+100 (BetMGM); O/U: Over 46.5/-104 (FanDuel)

Washington Football Team at Atlanta Falcons Picks and Predictions

When: Sunday, October 3rd, 1 PM

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Moneyline Spread Totals
Washington Best Odds +100 (FoxBet) -1.5/-103 (UniBet) Under 48/-110 (BetMGM)
Falcons Best Odds +255 (FoxBet) +1/-110 (BetMGM) Over 48.5/-104 (FanDuel)
Sep 26, 2021; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) throw a touchdown pass during the fourth quarter against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

The Washington Football Team plays the Atlanta Falcons in a matchup of NFC rivals. The Falcons dispatched the New York Giants on a game-winning field goal in much the same way Washington did during their Week 2 contest against the Giants. The win stands as the first in the career of Falcons head coach Arthur Smith. Washington limps to this one after

The Washington Football Team (1-2, 0-3 ATS) got trounced in Buffalo last week. The vaunted Washington defense, which entered having already surrendered over 800 yards through two games, gave up another 481 yards and 29 first downs to the Bills. And Taylor Heinicke, getting his first career road start, struggled in this one as well.

Buffalo raced out to a 21-0 lead, but Washington narrowed the gap quickly after a 73-yard touchdown from Heinicke to Antonio Gibson. Washington then recovered a muffed short kickoff and got within one score before the Bills pulled away in the third quarter. Washington turned the ball over three times, including two Heinicke interceptions.

Washington ranks 21st in rushing yards per game (97), and 22nd in both passing yards per game (221.6) and points per game (22.3). Perhaps more surprisingly, though, Washington’s defense has been worse. Washington ranks 31st in yards allowed (432.0), and 29th in both passing yards per game (307) and points per game (30.6).

The Atlanta Falcons (1-2, 1-2 ATS) enter after securing their first victory of the season last week. Younghoe Koo kicked a 40-yard field goal as time expired to secure the straight up win for the Falcons, who played as 2.5-point road underdogs in this one. Atlanta’s defense entered their Week 2 game against the Giants allowing 40 points per game, but only surrendered 14 in New York.

Matt Ryan went 27-of-36 for 243 yards and two touchdowns. Ryan led the game-tying and game-winning drives in the fourth quarter against New York. The Falcons struggled to get the ground game going again, managing just 69 rushing yards on 20 attempts. Through three games now, Atlanta’s rushing attack ranks 28th, averaging just 82.6 yards per game. The offense averages 16 points per game, which ranks 29th.

Washington enters having gone 1-5 against the spread in its last six games, but they’re 4-1 straight up in their last five road games. The total has gone under in six of Washington’s last nine games. Two of their three games this season, though, have gone over. Washington’s 0-2 against the spread as a favorite this season.

The Falcons, meanwhile, are 2-7 straight up in their last nine home games, and 3-6 against the spread over that span. However, Atlanta sports an 8-2 record against the spread in their last 10 games versus losing teams. The total has gone under in even of Atlanta’s last 10 games.

With Heinicke looking suspect in Week 3 and Washington’s defense struggling, the Falcons seem like the stronger play here. Home underdogs are 11-8 so far this season.

Picks and Predictions

Atlanta 23, Washington 21

ML: ATL +255 (FoxBet); Spread: ATL +1/-110 (BetMGM); O/U: Under 48/-110 (BetMGM)

Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills Picks and Predictions

When: Sunday, October 3rd, 1 PM

Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY

Moneyline Spread Totals
Texans Best Odds +900 (BetMGM) -16.5/-105 (PointsBet) Under 47.5/+100 (FoxBet)
Bills Best Odds -1250 (FanDuel) +16.5/-105 (BetMGM) Over 48/-108 (UniBet)
Bills receiver Emmanuel Sanders catches a deep pass in a 43-21 win over Washington. Photo by: Jamie Germano

The Houston Texans play the Buffalo Bills in one of the more one-sided matchups on the NFL’s Week 4 slate. This game features the largest spread of the week by a wide margin, as the heavily favored Bills are laying 16.5 points. While it seems like a stretch to cover such a spread, Buffalo’s two wins this season have been by 35 and 22 points.

The Houston Texans (1-2, 2-1 ATS) entered the NFL’s 2021 season with the longest odds to win the AFC and have seen their fortunes trend that way after starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor landed on the IR. Over the six quarters since losing Taylor in Week 2, the Texans have managed just one touchdown and nine points total.

Against the Carolina Panthers, Houston finished with just 42 rushing yards. Mark Ingram ran six times for 21 yards and David Johnson had two carries for 11 yards. Rookie Davis Mills went 19-of-28 for 168 yards and one touchdown. He displayed great chemistry with Brandin Cooks, connecting on nine passes for 112 yards. But after hanging around before halftime, the Texans couldn’t keep pace with Carolina in the second half, who outscored them 17-3.

The Buffalo Bills (2-1, 2-1 ATS) entered the season with the second-best odds to win the AFC Conference and have reenforced that claim after winning their last two games by a combined score of 78-21. Josh Allen exploded for 358 yards and four touchdowns against the much-ballyhooed Washington defense. Allen found Cole Beasley 11 times for 98 yards. Emmanuel Sanders registered 94 yards and caught two touchdowns. The defense also picked off Taylor Heinicke twice.

This matchup seems particularly one-sided considering Buffalo’s top-10 defense. The Bills rank fifth in points allowed per game (14.6) and fourth in yards allowed (252.6). Buffalo’s offense ranks fourth in scoring, at 31.3 points per game.

Houston sports a 4-2 record against the spread in its last six games, but just 1-5 straight up over that span. Similarly, the Texans are 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games, but just 1-4 straight up in those contests. The total has hit the over in four of their last five games.

Buffalo has an 11-3 against the spread mark in its last 14 games. They’re 10-2 straight up over their last 12. Buffalo’s 6-2 against the spread in their last eight home games, and 7-1 straight up over that span. The Bills have seen the under hit in two of their three games this season.

It’s hard to see a Houston straight up in this one, so their only hope will be to hang around and cover the 16.5-point spread. But despite the wide spread, the Bills should be able to run away with this one.

Picks and Predictions

Buffalo 31, Houston 13

ML: BUF -1250 (FanDuel); Spread: BUF +16.5/-105 (BetMGM); O/U: Under 47.5/+100 (FoxBet)

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears Picks and Predictions

When: Sunday, October 3rd, 1 PM

Where: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL

Moneyline Spread Totals
Lions Best Odds +235 (DraftKings) +2.5/-105 (DraftKings) Under 42.5/-105 (PointsBet)
Bears Best Odds +225 (FoxBet) -3.5/+105 (BetMGM) Over 43.5/+105 (BetMGM)
Detroit Lions running back D’Andre Swift runs against Baltimore Ravens linebacker Tyus Bowser (54) during the first half at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday, Sept. 26, 2021. Photo by: Junfu Han

The Detroit Lions play the Chicago Bears in one of Week 4’s divisional matchups on Sunday. Both teams come to this one after disappointing Week 3 losses, although in very different circumstances. The Lions lost thanks to a record-breaking field goal try, while Chicago’s offense failed to produce anything of note against the Browns.

The Detroit Lions (0-3, 2-1 ATS) had an opportunity to pick up their first straight up win of the season, but lost on the longest field goal in NFL history. The Lions defense surrendered a 4th and 19 pass late before Justin Tucker sent the Ravens home with the win on his 66-yard kick. Detroit still holds the longest odds to win the NFC Championship after that crushing loss.

The Lions defense played better in Week 3, especially considering they’d allowed more than 35 points in each of their first two games. Jared Goff played well, too, going 22-of-30 for 217 yards and no turnovers. D’Andre Swift ran for 47 yards and touchdown.

The Chicago Bears (1-2, 1-2 ATS) ushered in the Justin Fields era with disastrous results. Fields went just 6-of-20 for 68 yards, but he was sacked nine times, losing 67 yards in the process. Chicago ran for 46 rushing yards total, and were outgained 418 to 47 in what’s one of the worst offensive performances in NFL history.

After Week 3, the Bears rank 32nd in total yards per game (191.6) and passing yards per game (90.6). Chicago’s 31st in scoring (13.3). The defense has been better, but that’s mostly thanks to a dominant performance against the Bengals in Week 2 when they intercepted three straight Joe Burrow passes.

All that said, the Bears enter this one as favorites, but they’re 1-4 both against the spread and straight up over their last five games. Chicago’s 2-4 straight up over their last six at home. The under has hit in 15 of the Bears’ last 20 home games. Chicago’s 4-2 against the spread in their last six against the Lions, though.

Detroit’s gone 1-4 both against the spread and straight up over their last five road games. The Lions have seen the over hit in nine of their last 13 games overall. Detroit is 1-12 straight up in their last 13 games against NFC North opponents, but that one win came against the Bears.

Andy Dalton remains questionable heading into this matchup. Khalil Mack is also questionable. And considering Chicago’s offensive woes early on, this game feels like one the Lions can steal, especially if Mack misses the game.

Picks and Predictions

Detroit 20, Chicago 17

ML: DET +235 (DraftKings); Spread: DET +2.5/-105 (DraftKings); O/U: U 42.5/-105 (PointsBet)

Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys Picks and Predictions

When: Sunday, October 3rd, 1 PM

Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX

Moneyline Spread Totals
Panthers Best Odds +190 (FanDuel) +5/-110 (BetMGM) Under 50.5/-105 (PointsBet)
Cowboys Best Odds +185 (FoxBet) -5/-109 (UniBet) Over 50.5/-109 (UniBet)
Sep 27, 2021; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott (21) runs with the ball while being tackled by Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Darius Slay (2) and defensive back Anthony Harris (28) during the second quarter at AT&T Stadium. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The Carolina Panthers play the Dallas Cowboys in an important NFC matchup this week. Both of these clubs sport winning records, and both are 3-0 against the spread this season. The Panthers sport the NFL’s top defense, while Dallas comes in with one of the league’s best offenses. The winner of this game is positioned to grab a strangle hold atop the NFC standings.

The Carolina Panthers (3-0, 3-0 ATS) covered the 8.5-point spread on the road with their Thursday Night win in Houston. But it wasn’t all good news, considering Christian McCaffery left with an injury. Their top-ranked defense has a long week to prepare for a high-powered Cowboys offense, and they’ll need to carry the load since McCaffery’s out. Sam Darnold has been great through his first three games, averaging nearly 300 passing yards per game.

Carolina’s defense ranks first in yards allowed per game (191.0), passing yards allowed per game (146.0) and rushing yards allowed per game (45.0). The Panther’s D ranks second in points allowed per game (10.0).

The Dallas Cowboys (2-1, 3-0 ATS) dominated their NFC East division rival, the Philadelphia Eagles, on Monday Night Football in Week 3. The Cowboys won 41-21 in their home opener. Dak Prescott went 21-of-26 for 238 yards and three touchdowns. Ezekiel Elliott finally got going, gaining a season-high 95 yards and scoring two touchdowns.

Dallas enters this one with a top-10 offense. The Cowboys rank fourth in rushing yards (139.3), fifth in total yards (416.6), and sixth in points per game (30.0). They’re tenth in passing yards per game (277.3). Dallas’ defense ranks 31st in passing yards allowed per game (331.6), but 13th in points allowed (23.0).

Carolina comes to this Week 4 matchup 4-1 both against the spread and straight up in their last five games. In their last five road games, Carolina’s 5-0 against the spread. The Panthers are one of seven teams this season that’s seen the under hit in all three games so far.

The Cowboys look good with Prescott under center again and are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven. Dallas is 4-1 against the spread in its last five home games. The total’s hit the over in seven of the Cowboys’ last 10, including two of three times this season.

This game represents Carolina’s first big road test of the season. The Panthers defense must find a way to slow down this potent Dallas attack to give Darnold a chance in this one. And without McCaffery, Darnold will need to prove his high-end draft pedigree. But with an opportunistic Cowboys defense, and facing an elite quarterback on the road, it’s a tough task for Carolina to come away with the win in this one.

Picks and Predictions

Dallas 24, Carolina 14

ML: DAL +185 (FoxBet); Spread: DAL -5/-109 (UniBet); O/U: Under 50.5/-105 (PointsBet)

Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins Picks and Predictions

When: Sunday, October 3rd, 1 PM

Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

Moneyline Spread Totals
Colts Best Odds +115 (FoxBet) -1.5/-110 (BetMGM) Under 43/-105 (PointsBet)
Dolphins Best Odds +280 (FoxBet) +1.5/-105 (PointsBet) Over 43.5/-104 (FanDuel)
Sep 26, 2021; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Jacoby Brissett (14) is pressured by Las Vegas Raiders inside linebacker Cory Littleton (42)and defensive back Johnathan Abram (24) in the second half at Allegiant Stadium.The Raiders defeated the Dolphins 31-28 in overtime. Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Indianapolis Colts play the Miami Dolphins in a pivotal Week 4 matchup between AFC playoff hopefuls. Neither the Colts nor the Dolphins have seen their season start the way they envisioned, and both teams are in desperate need of a win. This game is one of three featuring the lowest over/under total for the week at 43.5. Both the Indy and Miami’s offenses score under 20 points per game. Both clubs have also seen injuries to their starting quarterbacks limit the offenses.

The Indianapolis Colts  (0-3, 1-2 ATS) were 8-2 on the road in Tennessee over the last 10 years, but came up short in the 25-16 loss to the Titans in Week 3. Caron Wentz played despite two sprained ankles, but managed just 194 passing yards on 19-of-37 passing.

The Colts offense ranks in the bottom third of the league in total yards (318.3), passing yards (215.3), and scoring (18.6). Indy’s defense gives up the fourth most rushing yards per game (140.3), and rank 22nd in scoring defense (26.6). The offensive line, which may be without center Quenton Nelson and guard Braden Smith, has surrendered the most QB Hits this season (13) and are tied for sixth-most sacks (8).

The Miami Dolphins (1-2, 2-1 ATS) started fast in Las Vegas last week, racing out to a 14-0 lead thanks in large part to a pick-six by Elandon Roberts. But the offense went stagnant for the better part of three quarters before coming to life late and forcing overtime against the Raiders. But the Dolphins couldn’t muster more than three points in OT, thus the 31-28 loss.

Jacoby Brissett did not look good as the starting quarterback in Week 3, even with the game-tying drive in the fourth quarter. His spotty accuracy negates the speed Miami sports at wide receiver and needs to improve if the Dolphins offense is to get going. He completed 32 passes, but managed just 215 yards.

Miami ranks 29th in total yards (268.3) and passing yards per game (175.6), and 30th in scoring (15.0). And the defense, last year’s strength, has been below average through three weeks. The Dolphins, though, do have a league-best 25-game takeaway streak going.

The Colts come to this one 1-5 both against the spread and straight up over their last six games. Indy’s 5-2 against the spread, though, in its last seven road games. Miami, meanwhile, enters 11-4 against the spread and 10-5 straight up over its last 15 games, including 6-1 against the spread in its last seven home games. The total has hit the under in six of the Dolphins last eight home games. Both of these teams have seen the under hit two of three times so far this season.

This game is tough one, which explains the near pick ’em spread. Against everyone other than Buffalo, Miami’s been solid. And the Dolphins are 12-2 against the spread following a straight up loss in recent years. With Miami’s opportunistic defense creating at least one turnover, the Dolphins should be able to handle a hobbled Caron Wentz and the Colts at home.

Picks and Predictions

Miami 24, Indianapolis 20

ML: MIA +280 (FoxBet); Spread: MIA +1.5/-105 (PointsBet); O/U: Over 43.5/-104 (FanDuel)

Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings Picks and Predictions

When: Sunday, October 3rd, 1 PM

Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN

Moneyline Spread Totals
Browns Best Odds -125 (BetMGM) -2.5/-105 (DraftKings) Under 53/-105 (PointsBet)
Vikings Best Odds +115 (DraftKings) +1.5/-110 (BetMGM) Over 53.5/-106 (FanDuel)
Sep 26, 2021; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett (95) rushes Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) during the second half at FirstEnergy Stadium. Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

The Cleveland Browns play the Minnesota Vikings in another of the Week 4 matchups with a very small spread. The Browns come to this one after one of the best defensive performances in NFL history. Cleveland’s defense held the Chicago Bears to just 47 yards of total offense and six points. The Vikings, meanwhile, may have saved their season by scoring the win over the Seattle Seahawks.

The Cleveland Browns (2-1, 2-1 ATS) covered he 7.5-point spread against the Bears with ease in their Week 3 victory. Browns defenders sacked Chicago’s rookie quarterback Justin Fields nine times, including 4.5 sacks from Myles Garrett alone. Odell Beckham Jr also made his 2021 debut. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt both ran for over 80 yards against the Bears.

Cleveland’s positioned itself atop the AFC North division thanks to dominant play early on. If not for an ill-advised interception late in Kansas City, the Browns might be undefeated. The offense ranks second in the league in rushing yards per game (174.6), and are top-10 in both scoring (28.6) and total yards (410.0).

The Minnesota Vikings (1-2, 2-1 ATS) won as home underdogs against Seattle in Week 3. The Vikings avoided the 0-3 start with the 30-17 victory. Kirk Cousins has been awesome to start the season, averaging over 300 yards per game with eight touchdowns and no interceptions.

The Vikings offense ranks top-10 in rushing yards (128.0), passing yards (297.0), and scoring 29.0), and top-5 in total yards (425.0). But Minnesota’s defense ranks in the bottom third in each of those categories, including 28th in total yards allowed (409.6). The Vikings D allows nearly 120 yards per game rushing, which doesn’t bode well considering that’s Cleveland’s strength on offense.

Minnesota won as a home underdog last week, and enters this one as a slight home underdog once again. The Vikings are 2-4 against the spread in their last six home games, but 4-2 straight up over that span. The Browns, meanwhile, come in 4-1 against the spread over their last five, and 5-1 against the spread in their last six road games. Both teams have seen the over hit in two of three games this season.

With Minnesota’s weak defense and the Browns’ rolling offensively, it’s hard to pick against Cleveland in this one. And with uncertainty swirling around Dalvin Cook’s availability, that reinforces the case for Cleveland. Also, the Vikings are 4-9 against the spread following their last 13 straight up wins.

Picks and Predictions

Cleveland 27, Minnesota 24

ML: CLE -125 (BetMGM); Spread: CLE -2.5/-105 (DraftKings); O/U: Under 53/-105 (PointsBet)

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints Picks and Predictions

When: Sunday, October 3rd, 1 PM

Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA

Moneyline Spread Totals
Giants Best Odds +300 (BetMGM) -8/-108 (UniBet) Under 43/+100 (FoxBet)
Saints Best Odds +215 (FoxBet) +8/-110 (BetMGM) Over 43.5/-105 (FanDuel)
Sep 26, 2021; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Taysom Hill (7) scrambles fortouchdown against New England Patriots during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Giants play the New Orleans Saints in a matchup of NFC teams headed in opposite directions. This game is one of two featuring the lowest over/under total for the week at 43.5. The Giants score 18.6 points per game and allow 26.7. The Saints, meanwhile, average 24.3 points per game while surrendering 14 per game. New York comes in winless, with their last two losses coming thanks to field goals as time expired. The Saints bounced back from their Week 2 loss to dominate in New England during Week 3.

The New York Giants (0-3, 1-2 ATS) were favorites for the first time this season last week, but still lost 17-14 to the previously winless Atlanta Falcons. It was another heartbreaker for the Giants, who fell to 0-3 for the second season in a row and the third time in the last five seasons. New York didn’t register their first win last season until Week 6, and if they drop this one, their schedule doesn’t lighten up until after their Week 10 bye.

The Giants offense hasn’t been terrible moving the ball, but Daniel Jones hasn’t been able to lead them to points consistently enough. New York ranks 25th in scoring (18.6), but 11th in rushing yards (107.6) and 17th in passing yards (242.6). Their defense has been better than average against the run, and ranks 16th in points allowed (24.6). But after the offense grabbed late leads over the last two weeks, the defense has immediately given it right back.

The New Orleans Saints (2-1, 2-1 ATS) went to New England after a very disappointing Week 2 loss in Carolina. New Orleans dominated the Patriots, though, intercepting three passes by rookie quarterback Mac Jones. The Saints got the good Jameis Winston against New England, as Winston did not throw an interception, but did complete two touchdown passes.

The two Saints victories this season have come by 35 and 15 points, so even though this spread is more than a touchdown, there’s a good chance New Orleans covers at home. The Saints sport a top-3 defense against the run, allowing just 60.3 rushing yards per game. New Orleans also ranks third in scoring defense, allowing just 14 points per game.

The Giants enter this one 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games, but just 1-6 straight up over that span. That said, New York is 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 road games. The Saints are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven, and 14-4 straight up over their last 18. The total has gone under in each of New Orleans last five games, and the Saints are one of seven teams this season that’s seen the under hit in all three games so far.

The Saints should be able to control this ballgame from start to finish, as long as the good Jameis Winston shows up. But if it’s Bad Jameis, the Giants should cover and might actually steal a win.

Picks and Predictions

New Orleans 28, New York 17

ML: NO +215 (FoxBet); Spread: NO +8/-110 (BetMGM); O/U: Over 43.5/-105 (FanDuel)

Tennessee Titans at New York Jets Picks and Predictions

When: Sunday, October 3rd, 1 PM

Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ

Moneyline Spread Totals
Titans Best Odds -345 (DraftKings) +7.5/-109 (UniBet) Under 46/-105 (PointsBet)
Jets Best Odds +290 (BetMGM) -7.5/-105 (BetMGM) Over 46/-110 (BetMGM)
Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17) throws the ball during the third quarter at Nissan Stadium Sunday, Sept. 26, 2021 in Nashville, Tenn. Photo by: Andrew Nelles

The Tennessee Titans play the New York Jets in a matchup of AFC teams going in opposite directions. The Titans have bounced back from a disappointing Week 1 effort to win their last two games in impressive fashion. The Jets, meanwhile, have looked like the worst team in football and one with the longest odds to win the conference championship.

The Tennessee Titans (2-1, 2-1 ATS) won an important divisional battle against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 3 and now hold a comfortable lead in the AFC South early. The Titans sport one of the league’s top rushing attacks, averaging 159.3 rushing yards per game, third most. Their league average in total yards (382.6) and points per game (23.6), but they won’t need that much against a putrid Jets offense.

The New York Jets (0-3, 0-3 ATS) have scored six points over their last eight quarters, and have been held scoreless in eight of their 12 quarters played this season. No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson has struggled tremendously threw his first three games and he’s tied for the league lead in interceptions thrown with seven. The Jets couldn’t cover the NFL’s only double-digit spread last week, and don’t seem like a sure bet to cover this week.

New York’s offense ranks among the bottom three in total yards (250), passing yards (170) and rushing yards per game (80). The Jets rank last in points per game, putting up 6.7 a contest. They’re the only team to average less than 10 points per game. Wilson has been sacked a league-high 15 times, and pressured a league-high 33 times.

The Jets defense hasn’t been as bad as the offense, but it’s hard to make up for seven turnovers, which is second-most in the league through three games. Their defense actually ranks 10th in total yards (328.3) and passing yards (217.3), but that a credit more to the short fields and playing with a lead for opposing offenses.

The Titans come to this one 2-4 against the spread in their last six games, but 3-3 straight up over that span. Tennessee is 4-2 against the spread in its last six road games, and 5-1 straight up in those contests. The Jets, meanwhile, are 1-4 against the spread in their last five, and an unbelievable 2-17 straight up since the start of last season. New York is one of seven teams this season that’s seen the under hit in all three games, and the Titans have seen the under hit in two of their three so far.

Tennessee should cruise in this one, and even with a line more than a touchdown, the fact that New York scores just six points per game should keep anyone from betting that line. The under seems like a solid play in this one as well.

Picks and Predications

Tennessee 28, New York 10

ML: TEN -345 (DraftKings); TEN +7.5/-109 (UniBet); O/U: Under 46/-105 (PointsBet)

Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles Picks and Predictions

When: Sunday, October 3rd, 1 PM

Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA

Moneyline Spread Totals
Chiefs Best Odds -250 (FoxBet) -7.5/+100 (PointsBet) Under 54.5/-105 (PointsBet)
Eagles Best Odds +460 (FoxBet) +7.5/-110 (BetMGM) Over 55.5/+100 (FoxBet)
Sep 26, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Mecole Hardman (17) scores a touchdown as Los Angeles Chargers defensive end Christian Covington (95) makes the tackle during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

The Kansas City Chiefs play the Philadelphia Eagles in this Week 4 matchup that features two fun-to-watch quarterbacks. This game holds the week’s highest over/under total at 55.5 points. There’s a chance these two teams get there, considering the Chiefs score 30.7 points per game and allow 31.7. The Eagles, meanwhile, score 21.5 per game but allow just 11.5. This game also sees Andy Reid return to Philadelphia for the first time since being fired as the Eagles coach.

The Kansas City Chiefs (1-2, 0-3 ATS) remain favored to win the AFC Conference despite their slow start to the season, but the gap in that Futures Bet between them and the Bills is closing. Despite being 1-2, oddsmakers continue to place big spreads on Kansas City, and they’re more than a touchdown favorite on the road again this week. The Chiefs high-powered offense might find its footing again in Philly, considering the Eagles defense just gave up 41 points to Dallas on Monday Night.

This hasn’t been said much over the last few years, but the Chiefs desperately need this win after losing back-to-back games for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era. Kansas City occupies the cellar of the AFC West division at present, believe it or not. Mahomes struggled against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 3, throwing two interceptions, including a bad one late in the game.

The Chiefs rank fifth in scoring (30.6) and passing yards per game (306.0), but their defense ranks dead last in points allowed per game (31.6). KC’s D ranks 30th in total yards (430) and 31st in rushing yards (160.3).

The Philadelphia Eagles (1-2, 1-2 ATS) looked good defensively through two weeks before letting the Cowboys put up 41 points in Week 3. The Eagles hung around in that Monday Night matchup until Jalen Hurts threw a pick-six in the third quarter. Hurts tallied 326 passing yards and two touchdowns, but threw two interceptions. What didn’t help Philly’s effort was the fact that Hurts was also the team’s leading rusher with just 35 yards.

The Eagles rank fifth in rushing yards per game (129.3), so they should have a chance to attack Kansas City’s weak defense. Philly’s defense ranks top-10 in total yards allowed (315.3) and passing yards allowed (181.6), but were shredded by the Cowboys in Week 3.

Considering they’re coming off a disappointing home divisional loss, and their head coach suffered a health scare ahead of a revenge game for him, it seems like a shoo-in for Kansas City. This could be the Chiefs first win against the spread this season, and their first in their last six road games (0-4-1). The total has hit the over in five of KC’s last seven road games, but the under has hit in nine of the Eagles last 13 home games. The Eagles are 2-4 against the spread in their last six games, and 1-5 straight up over that span.

Picks and Predictions

Kansas City 30, Philadelphia 20

ML: KC -250 (FoxBet); Spread: KC -7.5/+100 (PointsBet); O/U: Under 54.5/-105 (PointsBet)

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams Picks and Predictions

When: Sunday, October 3rd, 4:05 PM

Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA

Moneyline Spread Totals
Cardinals Best Odds +225 (FoxBet) +4.5/-109 (UniBet) Under 54.5/-105 (PointsBet)
Rams Best Odds +165 (FoxBet) -5/-105 (PointsBet) Over 54.5/-105 (FoxBet)
Sep 26, 2021; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) sets to pass in the first half of the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at SoFi Stadium. Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Cardinals play the Los Angeles Rams in a pivotal NFC West division battle. This game features two of the NFC’s top Super Bowl contenders and should prove to be one of the most entertaining games on the NFL’s Week 4 slate. This game is being played for early control of the NFC West division, and the winner will be alone in first place.

The Arizona Cardinals (3-0, 2-1 ATS) pulled away in the second half of their game in Jacksonville to cover the eight-point spread despite being down 19-10 in the third quarter of that game. The Jaguars took a halftime lead against Arizona in Week 3 thanks to an NFL-record-tying 109-yard return on a missed field goal. The Cardinals flipped momentum in the second half though with a pick-six off Trevor Lawrence.

Both A.J. Green and Christian Kirk registered more than 100 yards receiving, and James Conner scored two rushing touchdowns. Although Kyler Murray didn’t throw a touchdown pass, he did complete 28-of-34 passes for 316 yards in that one.

The Cardinals lead the league in scoring, averaging 34.3 points per game. Arizona ranks second in total yards per game, with 432.3 per contest. The passing attack ranks third overall, averaging 322.3 yards per game.

The Los Angeles Rams (3-0, 2-1 ATS) topped the defending Super Bowl champs, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in impressive fashion last week. The 34-24 win never really felt in doubt, and Matthew Stafford threw all over Tampa Bay’s secondary. Stafford completed 27-of-38 passes for 343 yards and four touchdowns. Cooper Kupp caught another two touchdown passes, and DeSean Jackson scored on a 75-yard catch and run.

The Rams ranks third in scoring (31.6) and sixth in passing (304.3 passing yards per game). And although their defense allows the seventh most passing yards per game (281.3), Los Angeles ranks ninth in scoring defense (20.6).

Los Angeles has owned this rivalry of late, winning eight in a row straight up, and going 7-0-1 against the spread versus the Cardinals. The Rams are 5-1 straight up in their last six October games, and 4-2 against the spread in their last six as a favorite.  The Rams have seen the over hit in all three of their games this season.

The Cardinals are 4-8 against the spread in their last 12 games, and 5-2 straight up in their last seven. Arizona’s seen the under hit in four of their last five games, including two of three this season.

This game should be one of the most fun to watch on the NFL Week 4 slate. It should be a shoot-out, but Rams head coach Sean McVay has never lost to Arizona, and even with a potential let down on the horizon, it probably won’t happen this week. Arizona should keep it close and cover.

Picks and Predictions

Los Angeles Rams 34, Arizona 31

ML: LAR +165 (FoxBet); Spread: AZ +4.5/-109 (UniBet); O/U: Over 54.5/-105 (FoxBet)

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers Picks and Predictions

When: Sunday, October 3rd, 4:05 PM

Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA

Moneyline Spread Totals
Seahawks Best Odds +135 (DraftKings) +2.5/+100 (PointsBet) Under 52/-105 (PointsBet)
49ers Best Odds -147 (UniBet) -3/+100 (BetMGM) Over 52.5/-106 (FanDuel)
Sep 26, 2021; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) scrambles against the Minnesota Vikings defensive end Dalvin Tomlinson (94) in the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

The Seattle Seahawks play the San Francisco 49ers in another important divisional matchup in the NFC this week. The Seahawks find themselves in the cellar of the NFC West after three weeks, and if they’re going to make another run to the playoffs, they can’t afford another conference loss. The 49ers enter this one disappointed after watching Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers steal a victory as time expired in Week 3.

The Seattle Seahawks (1-2, 1-2 ATS) were not competitive in Week 3 after melting down in a bad Week 2 loss. Seattle looked listless in their 30-17 loss to the Vikings last week, especially on the defensive end. Russell Wilson threw for 298 yards and touchdown on 23-of-32 passing, but the defense allowed Minnesota to run up 450 total yards on offense.

Seattle’s been outscored 54-23 over its last six quarters of play and enters this Week 4 matchup as the underdog for the first time this season. The offense has been better than league average across the board, including top-10 in passing yards per game (281.3), but the defense ranks 32nd in total yards allowed (440.3). They’re ranked 30th in rushing yards allowed (155).

The San Francisco 49ers (2-1, 1-2 ATS) looked like they were going to improve to 3-0 after holding a one-point lead with less than a minute remaining against the Packers. But Aaron Rodgers got Green Bay into field goal range in less than 37 seconds despite not having any timeouts to set up the game-winning field goal.

Jimmy Garoppolo went 25-of-40 for 257 yards, two touchdowns and an interception against the Packers. But San Francisco managed just 67 rushing yards on 21 carries. Trey Sermon led the team with 31 rushing yards on the night.

The 49ers are middle-of-the-pack offensively both rushing and passing, but they’re ranked 10th in scoring (28.6). San Francisco’s defense is also league average in most categories, but ranked 23rd in rushing yards allowed (122.3).

Seattle swept the two meetings between these two teams last season, and need to avoid the 1-3 start. The Seahawks are 1-4 against the spread over their last five games. They’re 1-7 against the spread as the road team in their last eight, but 4-1 straight up on the road in their last five. Seattle seen the under hit on two of three games this season, and five of their last six road games.

The 49ers are 1-4 against the spread in their last five home games, but 0-5 straight up over that span. The total has gone over in four of San Francisco’s last six games and two of three so far this season. This game should be a close one, considering the spread and circumstances, but hits hard to bet against Russell Wilson in this seemingly must-win game for Seattle.

Picks and Predictions

Seattle 27, San Francisco 24

ML: SEA +135 (DraftKings); Spread: SEA +2.5/+100 (PointsBet); O/U: Under 52/-105 (PointsBet)

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos Picks and Predictions

When: Sunday, October 3rd, 4:25 PM

Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO

Moneyline Spread Totals
Ravens Best Odds +105 (UniBet) +1.5/-110 (BetMGM) Under 44.5/-105 (PointsBet)
Broncos Best Odds -108 (FanDuel) -1/-105 (DraftKings) Over 44.5/-105 (FanDuel)
Sep 26, 2021; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) gets pursued by Detroit Lions linebacker Romeo Okwara (95) during the fourth quarter at Ford Field. Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

The Baltimore Ravens play the Denver Broncos in one of the AFC’s most intriguing matchups this week. The Ravens underwhelmed in their Week 3 win in Detroit, needing an NFL-record breaking 66-yard field goal from Justin Tucker to defeat the winless Lions. The Broncos dispatched their Week 3 opponent, the New York Jets, and became one of two teams to be both 3-0 straight up and against the spread to start 2021.

The Baltimore Ravens (2-1, 1-2 ATS) were due for a let down after a thrilling Week 2 upset victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. Faltering on the road against the Lions only to be saved by Tucker’s leg kept them in the win column and bunched with two other teams atop the AFC North division.

Lamar Jackson leads the way for the Ravens, putting up over 250 yards per game through the air and over 80 yards per game on the ground. He’s responsible for five total touchdowns so far. The Ravens lead the league in rushing yards per game, averaging 185.3, thanks in large part to Jackson’s efforts. Baltimore’s defense has been good against the run, but ranks 30th against the pass, allowing 314.6 passing yards per game.

The Denver Broncos (3-0, 3-0 ATS) covered last week’s largest spread (11 points) with their dominant 26-0 victory over the hapless New York Jets. They’ve taken advantage of their soft schedule early on, preying on young quarterbacks along the way. They’ll have their hands full with Jackson, though.

Teddy Bridgewater continues to play well for Denver, who’ve won their three games by an average margin of 16.7 points per contest. Bridgewater’s only thrown four touchdown passes through three games, but he’s yet to throw an interception and leads a steady offensive attack. Meanwhile, the defense has harried opposing QBs. Denver’s defense ranks second in total yards allowed per game (221.6) and rushing yards allowed per game (59.3). They sport the league’s top scoring defense, allowing just 8.6 points per game.

Baltimore enters this one 7-3 against the spread and 8-2 straight up over their last 10 games. Over their last 23 road games, the Ravens are 15-6-2 against the spread. Baltimore’s also 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games as an underdog. They’ve seen the over hit two of three times this season.

The Broncos are one of seven teams this season that’s seen the under hit in all three games so far. Denver’s 4-1 against the spread in its last five games, and 4-2 against the spread in its last six home games.

With this contest nearly a pick ‘em, it’s tough to predict. Although Bridgewater’s played mistake-free football so far, Baltimore represents his stiffest test. Denver’s beat the league’s three worst teams: the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets. The Ravens are a significant step up in competition, and not one I think Denver’s ready for.

Picks and Predictions

Baltimore 27, Denver 21

ML: BAL +105 (UniBet); Spread: BAL +1.5/-110 (BetMGM); O/U: Over 44.5/-105 (FanDuel)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers Picks and Predictions

When: Sunday, October 3rd, 4:25 PM

Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI

Moneyline Spread Totals
Steelers Best Odds +260 (FoxBet) +6.5/-105 (BetMGM) Under 45.5/-105 (PointsBet)
Packers Best Odds -278 (UniBet) -6.5/-115 (Borgata) Over 48/-105 (FoxBet)
Sep 26, 2021; Santa Clara, California, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams (17) runs with the ball after making a catch against the San Francisco 49ers in the third quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

The Pittsburgh Steelers play the Green Bay Packers in one of the more intriguing late window matchups on the NFL Week 4 slate. The Aaron Rodgers-Ben Roethlisberger matchup would have headlined most weeks over the last decade plus, and did so in Super Bowl XLV, but these days Big Ben’s showing serious signs of slippage. The Packers escaped San Francisco with an improbable win that saw Rodgers led Green Bay into field goal range despite there being just over 30 seconds remaining and not having any timeouts.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2, 1-2 ATS) suffered a rare home loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3. After a surprise, upset win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 1, the Steelers have lost two straight to conference opponents and the offense has looked sluggish throughout. Roethlisberger went 38-of-58 for 318 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions against the Bengals, but was sacked four times. He’s been hit 12 times so far this season, tied for second-most in the league.

Rookie Najee Harris couldn’t find much running room again, gaining just 40 yards on 14 carries. But Harris led the Steelers with 14 catches and 102 receiving yards. Pittsburgh’s rushing attack ranks 32nd in the league through three weeks, averaging just 53 yards per game.

The Steelers saw their NFL-record streak of 75 straight games with a sack end in Week 3, but the defense has still been better than league average. Pittsburgh ranks 10th against the run, allowing just 88.3 yards per game, but 20th against the pass, giving up 266.3 passing yards per game. Pittsburgh’s defense will be without Stephon Tuitt and Tyson Alualu, who are both on the IR, and could be without T.J. Watt, who’s questionable heading into Sunday’s tilt.

The Green Bay Packers (2-1, 2-1 ATS) shocked the 49ers in Week 3 to maintain their spot near the top among NFC Championship hopefuls. Rodgers went 23-of-33 for 261 yards and two touchdowns, including finding Davante Adams 12 times for 132 yards and a score. Aaron Jones chewed up 82 yards and scored as well.

Discounting the egg they laid in Week 1, the Packers look like the real deal this season. Green Bay’s averaging 32.5 point per game over their last two, which would be third best in the league if not for their 3-point performance in the opener. Week 1 has skewed all the team’s stats, but it seems like this defense can be scored upon.

Pittsburgh enters this game 3-7 against the spread over their last 10 games. Since starting the year 11-0 last season, the Steelers are just 2-7 straight up. The total has gone under in 17 of Pittsburgh’s last 23 road games, and the Steelers are one of seven teams this season that’s seen the under hit in all three games so far.

Green Bay, meanwhile, is 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games, and 9-2 straight up over their last 11. The over has hit in six of the Packers last seven games, including in two of three so far this season. Green Bay’s 15-2 straight up in its last 17 home games.

Considering the o-line issues that are sabotaging the offense, the Steelers would be lucky to keep pace with the high-powered Green Bay attack. Even with a touchdown spread, the Packers should be able to cover this one at home without an issue, especially if Watt is out for Pittsburgh.

Picks and Predictions

Green Bay 31, Pittsburgh 20

ML: GB -278 (UniBet); Spread: GB -6.5/-115 (Borgata); O/U: Over 48/-105 (FoxBet)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots Picks and Predictions

When: Sunday, October 3rd, 8:20 PM

Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA

Moneyline Spread Totals
Buccaneers Best Odds -189 (888sport) -7/-104 (UniBet) Under 49/-105 (PointsBet)
Patriots Best Odds +520 (FoxBet) +6.5/-105 (PointsBet) Over 49.5/-105 (FanDuel)
Sep 26, 2021; Inglewood, California, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) throws a pass during the third quarter against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers play the New England Patriots in a Week 4 matchup whose headlines remain all about Tom Brady’s return to Foxboro. Brady enters as a defending Super Bowl champ, while the Patriots have sputtered to another slow start without their former star. While this isn’t a particularly intriguing matchup on paper, this is one of the most anticipated regular season NFL games in some time.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1, 1-2 ATS) took a tough road loss in Los Angeles during Week 3. The 34-24 set back snapped a 10-game winning streak for Tampa Bay, but the Bucs still own the best Super Bowl odds in the NFC. Brady looked like the perennial MVP he was while with the Patriots last week, throwing for 432 yards and touchdown. Brady’s second in the league in passing, with 1,087 yards and 10 touchdowns through three games. What hurt Tampa Bay the most last week was the fact that Brady actually led them in rushing as well, with 14 yards.

Brady has the Bucs ranked second in passing (349.6 per game) and second in scoring (34.3 per game). Their defense, though, has let them down early this season. Tampa Bay’s defense allows the most passing yards per game (338.3) and ranks 27th in scoring, allowing 29.3 points per game.

The New England Patriots (1-2, 1-2 ATS) just aren’t the same without Tom Brady, or Rob Gronkowski for that matter. The Patriots lost as home favorites for the second time this season after Week 3’s 28-13 loss to New Orleans. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones struggled mightily, throwing three interceptions against the Saints. New England couldn’t muster much of a ground game either, with Jones’ 28 rushing yards leading the team.

The Patriots offense ranks in the bottom third of the league in total yards, rushing yards, passing yards, and scoring. The defense, however, ranks top-5 in yards allowed, passing yards, and defensive scoring, but they’ve played two of the worst offenses in the league so far, with games against Miami and the New York Jets.

This matchup pits one of the highest scoring offenses against one of the league’s lowest scoring groups. And the Patriots will be without James White, a major offensive weapon, for some time. New England comes to this game 2-5 over their last seven both against the spread and straight up. The total has hit the under in nine of the Patriots last 11 games, including all three times this season.

The Buccaneers have seen the over hit in all three of their games this season. They’re 10-1 straight up over their last 11 and 8-1 straight up in their last nine road games. The Bucs enter 4-2 against the spread in their last six games.

Although people will want this to be a good game, it’s probably not going to be. After each of their five losses last season, the Bucs covered the spread. The Patriots, meanwhile, are 0-2 at home this season, both against the spread and straight up. Brady should lead the Bucs in a rout.

Picks and Predictions

Tampa Bay 31, New England 20

ML: TB -189 (888sport); Spread: TB -7/-104 (UniBet); O/U: Over 49.5/-105 (FanDuel)

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers Picks and Predictions

When: Monday, October 4th, 8:15 PM

Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA

Moneyline Spread Totals
Raiders Best Odds +162 (UniBet) +3.5/-110 (BetMGM) Under 52.5/-105 (PointsBet)
Chargers Best Odds -175 (BetMGM) -4/-108 (UniBet) Over 52.5/-110 (BetMGM)
Sep 26, 2021; Inglewood, California, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) throws a pass during the third quarter against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

The Las Vegas Raiders play the Los Angeles Chargers in an important AFC West matchup of two playoff hopefuls off to solid starts. This game pits two relocated teams coming off exciting Week 3 victories. The Raiders are off to their best start since 2002, and the Chargers enter after upsetting the Kansas City Chiefs on the road.

The Las Vegas Raiders (3-0, 2-1 ATS) failed to cover the four-point spread at home against the Miami Dolphins, but managed to comeback to secure the straight up victory in overtime. After falling behind 14-0 against the Dolphins, Derek Carr rallied the Raiders to the 31-28 win. Carr went 26-of-34 for 386 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. He’s an early favorite for league MVP.

Peyton Barber filled in for Josh Jacobs and gained 111 yards and a touchdown. The Vegas passing offense ranks first in the league, averaging 379.6 yards per game. The Raiders also rank seventh in scoring, averaging 30 per contest. Their defense is basically league average, but they’re better against the pass than the run, which bodes well against a pass-happy Chargers team.

The Los Angeles Chargers (2-1, 2-1 ATS) grabbed one of the NFL’s surprise upset victories with their Week 3 win in Kansas City. A huge fourth quarter interception of Patrick Mahomes set up the thrilling finish. First-year head coach Brandon Staley went for it on 4th and nine instead of kicking a long field goal, and his offense rewarded him with the game-winning touchdown.

Justin Herbert has picked up right where he left off as last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year. Herbert went 26-of-38 for 281 yards and four touchdowns against the Chiefs, thoroughly outplaying Mahomes in the process. Mike Williams caught seven passes for 122 yards and two touchdowns.

The Chargers sport a top-5 passing offense (307.4 yards per game), but only score 22.3 points per game (21st in the league). Red zone troubles have plagued Los Angeles early on, and that’s not something they can afford against the Raiders.

Las Vegas enters this contest 3-6 against the spread over its last nine games, but 4-1 straight up over its last five. They’re also 6-1 straight up in their last seven road games. And the road team is 5-1 against the spread in this series over the last three seasons. The Raiders have seen the over hit in seven of their last eight games, including two of three this season.

The Chargers are one of seven teams this season that’s seen the under hit in all three games so far. Los Angeles is 6-1 both against the spread and straight up over their last seven contests. They’ve struggled to cover at home though, going 5-13-1 against the spread over their last 19 home games. The Chargers were 5-1 against the spread versus AFC West opponents last year, with the lone loss coming against the Raiders at home.

Las Vegas is rolling this season, and they’ve won three of the last four straight up against the Chargers. And although Herbert has been good too, he’s made too many mistakes early on and Los Angeles has struggled to convert in the red zone. That seems to give the Raiders the slight edge in this one.

Picks and Predictions

Las Vegas 27, Los Angeles Chargers 24

ML: LV +162 (UniBet); Spread: LV +3.5/-110 (BetMGM); O/U: Under 52.5/-105 (PointsBet)

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