AFC Championship Prop Bets: 3 Wagers for Chiefs vs. Ravens

It’s a classic case of the champion vs. the No. 1 contender for the AFC Championship game (Sunday, 3 p.m. ET, CBS). The Baltimore Ravens have passed all of their tests as of late with flying colors. This season, they’ve easily handled the Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, and — last week — the Houston Texans. Now, the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs stand in the Ravens’ way.

The Chiefs are playing in their sixth-straight AFC title game — but first away from Arrowhead Stadium. Baltimore is in this round for the first time since reaching the Super Bowl at the end of the 2012 season and also for the first time in Lamar Jackson’s tenure with the team. The Ravens faithful at M&T Bank Stadium will be extra pumped up because this is the home AFC Championship game in franchise history.

We previewed this clash of the titans earlier this week by giving our Chiefs vs. Ravens best bets, but now, it’s time to look at the AFC Championship game prop bets for Sunday afternoon.

Throwing out the Week 18 loss to Pittsburgh when Baltimore sat most of its key players, the Ravens won their last four games by an average of nearly 23 points. Opponents included playoff teams San Francisco, Miami, and Houston along with near-playoff team Jacksonville.

But lost in the spectacular results that saw the Ravens score an average of 35 points per game in those contests were slow starts.

The Ravens have been extremely strong in the third quarter of these games, but a slow start against Kansas City may be tougher to overcome.

The sportsbooks have caught on to this, as the over-under total for the first quarter is just 7.5 (-110 either way at DraftKings). Instead, given that Baltimore was either trailing or tied well into the second quarter in three of these four games, we like the line early on for the Chiefs. If you’re feeling lucky, parlay it with the under. But we’re not sure we’re ready to go that far.

The Play: Kansas City +0.5 at the end of the first quarter (-120 at DraftKings)

Watching Lamar Jackson against Houston last week, it was a quarterback on a mission. Jackson’s playoff woes were well-documented going into last week’s game, but he dominated the Texans last week in a way that he has so often this year. Enough in fact that he will likely be named NFL MVP for the second time next month.

Jackson was an efficient 16-of-22 for 152 yards and two touchdowns in the air. He added 100 yards on 11 carries and two more touchdowns on the ground last week. It snapped a nine-week run of zero rushing touchdowns for Jackson, but now that the playoffs are here, he’s going to use all the weapons at his disposal. That includes his legs.

These teams last played in the regular season two years ago. It was a 36-35 Ravens win. Jackson ran 16 times for 107 yards and two scores. For this bet to cash, all you need is one rushing touchdown.

The Play: Lamar Jackson OVER 0.5 rushing TDs (+115 at Hard Rock Bet)

See Sidelines’ best bets for this Sunday’s AFC Championship and NFC Championship

We mentioned that last week was Patrick Mahomes’ first road playoff game in his career. Typically, the multi-time MVP will air it out in the playoffs. He even did so in bitterly cold conditions in the opening round, throwing 41 times against Miami.

Last week in Buffalo, however, he threw just 23 times. That number is the lowest of his playoff career. The only other time he had fewer than 30 passes in a playoff game was 27 in last year’s Super Bowl.

The game plan for Mahomes on the road was to control the time of possession and not let a hostile crowd be as much of a factor.

It worked against the Bills. Will the Chiefs employ the same strategy against the Ravens?

Given that Baltimore was the sixth-best team against the pass this year (192 yards allowed per game), it could allow the Chiefs to focus even more on the ground game. Especially given that Isiah Pacheco has had an extremely productive playoffs (186 yards and two touchdowns on 39 carries over two games).

The number for Mahomes pass attempts started high and is dropping. It was at 38.5. As of this writing on Friday afternoon, it’s 36.5 at Caesars. We’re confident in this one down to 35.5.

The Play: Patrick Mahomes UNDER 36.5 pass attempts (-105 at Caesars)