AFC Championship Preview: Chiefs vs. Ravens Odds and Best Bets

Shame on us for doubting Patrick Mahomes. Last week, we thought Bills Mafia — along with the red-hot Buffalo Bills — would derail the Kansas City Chiefs in the star quarterback’s first road playoff game.

It was no surprise that Mahomes wasn’t the one to buckle under the pressure. Instead, the Bills fans saw a familiar refrain: heartbreak.

Tyler Bass appeared to put a bit too much leg into this kick, as it hooked wide right (sorry, Buffalo) and sent the Bills into the offseason. Kansas City survived, 27-24 — and marked our only loss of the divisional round.

Now, the Chiefs find themselves a similar underdog in their first AFC Championship game (Sunday, 3 p.m. ET, CBS) away from Arrowhead Stadium. Mahomes continues his streak of playing in this round in each year he’s been the starting quarterback — six and counting. For the first time in the postseason, his opponent is the Baltimore Ravens. After a relatively slow start to the playoffs Saturday, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens continued their path of destruction through the NFL.

Jackson threw for two touchdowns and ran for 100 yards and two more scores in the 34-10 blowout of the up-and-coming Houston Texans.

While the Bills were playing well going into last week’s game, the Ravens have been plain unstoppable. In their last four competitive games (not counting the Week 18 loss to Pittsburgh where Jackson and many starters didn’t play), the Ravens have won each game by at least 14 points and included a blowout of Miami and road wins at Jacksonville and San Francisco, the NFC’s top seed.

Can the favored Ravens knock off the defending champs? We look at the Chiefs vs. Ravens odds and give our best bets for Sunday’s AFC Championship game.

Think of the Ravens’ season like a video game. Sure, there have been a few losses — all by one possession, by the way — but as of late, they’ve destroyed everyone who’s been put in front of them.

Riding a seven-game winning streak in games that Jackson has started, Baltimore ended the regular season with convincing wins over the Jags, 49ers, and Dolphins. They continued it last week against Houston.

Now, even though there will be a Super Bowl to play if the Ravens win, they’re at the boss level. Defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City comes into M&T Bank Stadium looking to return to the big game for the fourth time in the past five seasons. It’s been 11 years since the Ravens reached the mountaintop. This is their fifth trip to the AFC title game and first at home in franchise history.

Last week in Buffalo, Mahomes went back to basics. He turned to his most-trusted weapon: Travis Kelce. Aka boyfriend of Taylor Swift. Aka brother of Jason Kelce.

Kelce caught five balls for 75 yards, with two going for touchdowns. The problem for the Chiefs is that the Ravens defense will present a much tougher test than Buffalo’s did.

While the Ravens and Bills gave up the same amount of yards, Baltimore topped the NFL in points allowed — giving up just 16.5 points per game.

If Kansas City is to have a chance, they will need to get to work early. Despite the big wins as of late, Baltimore trailed the 49ers and Dolphins in the first quarter of their convincing wins and were tied with Houston at halftime. Granted, the Texas’ touchdown came on a punt return, but points are points.

One would think the intangibles lie in the corner of the Chiefs. Mahomes has been there before. So has just about the entire Chiefs team. Yes, Justin Tucker is a big upgrade over Tyler Bass if it comes down to a game-winning field goal — which it may. But lucky for you, taking the Chiefs and the points means that a last-second Ravens win through the uprights will make you a winner.

The Play: Chiefs +4 (-110 at DraftKings)

If Kansas City has taught us anything in these AFC Championship games, it’s to expect games in at least the 20s. In all five recent title games, the Chiefs have allowed at least 20 points. They gave up exactly 24 in three of them. The Chiefs have scored at least 23 in all five as well. Not surprisingly, Sunday’s Chiefs vs. Bills contest finished at 27-24.

For the Ravens, they have scored over 30 points in nine of Jackson’s last 11 starts. Even if the defense has a superior effort — which is has in most weeks this year — the Ravens may do enough to get you to the number.

For an extra tricky play, if you don’t want to take the over right away, just wait. As we said, the Ravens have been slow starters. If the first quarter is low scoring, check the live odds for the total and grab the over then. With a score like 3-3 or 7-0, you’ll probably get the total for a bit lower than 44.5.

The Play: Chiefs-Ravens OVER 44.5 (-108 at FanDuel).