NFC Championship Preview: Lions vs. 49ers Odds and Best Bets

Sunday’s late game (6:30 p.m. ET, Fox) features the top seed in the NFC against the No. 3 seed, but digging deeper into the matchup, there are several improbabilities in the NFC Championship game.

The visitors, the Detroit Lions, are making recent franchise history with each win in these playoffs. So far, the Lions have:

If they are to advance to their first Super Bowl, they will have to win a road playoff game for the first time in the Super Bowl era.

The San Francisco 49ers are in the NFC title game for the fourth time in the past five seasons. After winning in January 2020, they were defeated in ’22 and ’23. Last year’s improbable story of Brock Purdy — the final pick in the 2022 NFL Draft — is continuing. Purdy is now 3-0 in playoff games where he’s played the entire game. The lone loss was to Philadelphia last year when Purdy was injured on the Niners’ first possession.

The Lions own two narrow wins in the playoffs, and the 49ers had to come from behind in the final minutes to survive a challenge from Green Bay. Now, one of the most decorated franchises in NFL history faces one of the four who has never been to a Super Bowl. We have the Lions vs. 49ers odds and best bets for the NFC Championship.

Last week, it felt silly that Green Bay — a team that was 7-2 in their last nine games with a hot quarterback — was a 10-point underdog to San Francisco. That proved to be true, as the 49ers needed some good fortune (a positive spot on a Packers turnover on downs and a missed field goal) to remain in the game. Christian McCaffrey then imposed his will in the final drive to provide the winning points. But let’s not forget McCaffrey’s first touchdown either, which was a thing of beauty.

Detroit, however, comes in with the league’s second-best run defense from the regular season. The Lions allowed just 88.8 yards per game on the ground this year. Another question surrounding the Niners is the health of Deebo Samuel. The versatility that Samuel provides opens things up for both McCaffrey and the passing game. But Samuel left the Packers game early with a shoulder injury and was limited at practice this week. If he does play, it may be as more of a decoy or in a limited role.

The Niners also present a strong defense against the rush — San Fran was third in the NFL against the run. The Lions will need to rely on Jared Goff, who has been effective thus far in the playoffs with a total of 564 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions in two playoff games. His performance is summed up by this perfect throw to Amon-Ra St. Brown in last week’s win over Tampa Bay.

Head coach Dan Campbell has been aggressive in fourth-down plays and in other situations this year. Against a strong defense, that could be a detriment. But Detroit has lost by more than a touchdown just twice this season. Several books are offering +7.5, and more than a touchdown is a ton of wiggle room and worth giving up a little more on the vig.

The Play: Lions +7.5 (-114 at FanDuel)

The 49ers are known for an explosive defense, but the Lions’ defensive unit contains no slouches either. Since a rough stretch in November, Detroit turned things on starting in December. In their last six games, they haven’t allowed more than 24 points. In Week 17, they kept a Dallas offense that was a juggernaut at home to just 20 points.

Last week, when the Packers vs. 49ers total was at 50.5, we said that the Niners had just two home games all year where the total eclipsed 50 points. The last one was in Week 5. Last Saturday’s final score was 24-21. Expect this game to follow a similar script. Points hard-earned and drives may take large chunks of time off the clock.

The Play: Lions-49ers UNDER 51.5 (-110 at Caesars)