It’s never too early to place a futures bet. In fact, the best time to lay money on next year’s MVP might be right after the Super Bowl when everything is still fresh in your mind. If you anticipate big changes through the draft of free agency, like you expect a certain quarterback to join forces with a game-changing wide receiver, why not put your money where your mouth is now?
The second things change, the odds will change. Once your favorite quarterback acquires that free agent receiver, his odds will be worse, and you’ll be kicking yourself. Of course, once the season starts, odds will change every week. Now is the time to bet, if you’re bold enough.
Here are the top-5 MVP post Super Bowl MVP candidates and the best odds you can get on them.
Patrick Mahomes +700 (FanDuel)
It’s pretty straightforward that the reigning MVP would have the shortest odds at winning the award two years in a row. Even more logical given that Patrick Mahomes is already being spoken about as a top-3 quarterback of all time at age 27. He’s been the best quarterback in the league since he became a starter, and he should always be considered the favorite at the beginning of each season. He’s earned that respect. In five years, Mahomes now has two Super Bowl wins (plus a third appearance), two MVP awards, and the Chiefs haven’t fallen short of the AFC championship with him under center.
Joe Burrow +750 (Caesars)
These are the best odds you can get on Joe Burrow across the most popular sportsbooks, and Caesars is the only one that doesn’t actually have Burrow and Mahomes with the same odds. Oddsmakers are expecting big things from Burrow next season. Burrow was 5th in the league in passing yards, 3rd in passing touchdowns, and led the Bengals to their second straight AFC championship. Before Burrow arrived, the Bengals hadn’t won a playoff game since 1990. In just two healthy seasons though, Burrow has racked up five of them, and has a 5-2 playoff record overall.
Josh Allen was neck and neck with Mahomes for the early part of the season. Through his first eight games he threw 19 touchdown passes and was averaging just over 300 passing yards per game. After his elbow injury in Week 9 against the Vikings though, he dipped. He only dipped slightly, but it was enough for Mahomes to pull away as the favorite. The Bills are hungry. They have four straight playoff appearances with Allen but they haven’t even made an AFC Championship in that time. Allen is likely to come out hot once again with something to prove, and if he can stay fully healthy, an MVP is easily in his reach.
Justin Herbert +1100 (Caesars)
Justin Herbert might be a name that surprises you in the top-5. His numbers this year weren’t as good this year as they were last year, the Chargers might be losing Keenan Allen, and he plays in the same division as Patrick Mahomes. Herbert has only beaten Mahomes head to head one time since entering the league and it’s kinda hard to win MVP over a guy who outplays you twice a year. The Chargers seem to always find ways to lose, and Herbert will need to change that narrative if he wants to earn an MVP award. There hasn’t been an MVP from a team who didn’t win their division since Peyton Manning in 2008.
Jalen Hurts +1300 (DraftKings)
Seeing Jalen Hurts 5th on this list might be surprising as well. He was just the MVP runner up to Mahomes this year. He only lost a single game that he started in the regular season, he combined for 35 touchdowns between passing and rushing, and the Eagles are the reigning NFC champions. How did Burrow, Allen, and Herbert all jump ahead of him? Hurts proved this season that he could be just as big of a threat as a passer as he is as a runner. He improved across the board in passing touchdowns, yards, completion percentage, rating, and even cut down on his interceptions. +1300 is great value for Hurts MVP odds.
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