Early 2023-24 NFL Super Bowl Futures Odds: Chiefs Favored to Repeat

Not surprisingly, the final four teams (plus Buffalo) from the 2022 NFL season are the favorites to win Super Bowl 58 in 2024, according to futures odds released before all the confetti was swept off of State Farm Stadium’s slippery grass Sunday night.

The Kansas City Chiefs were spectacular in the second half in winning Super Bowl 57 over the Philadelphia Eagles, 38-35. With Patrick Mahomes in tow–injured ankle and all–who knows what the ceiling is for the second quarterback to have three Super Bowl appearances by the age of 27.

One thing is for sure: we haven’t had repeat Super Bowl champs since New England accomplished the feat in the 2003 and ’04 seasons, so it’ll be 20 years since it’s happened unless the Chiefs can pull it off in Las Vegas in 2024.

Here are the futures odds for the top half of the NFL’s teams to win Super Bowl 58, courtesy of DraftKings. The game will be held at Allegiant Stadium on the Las Vegas Strip on Sunday, Feb. 11, 2024.

Here’s a look at how it shakes out at Caesars Sportsbook, as they are forecasting a repeat of Super Bowl LIV (Kansas City vs. San Francisco).

You can’t go wrong with any of the five teams at the top. In the NFL, you need a star quarterback to win the Super Bowl. Each appears to have one.

In Sunday’s loss, Jalen Hurts played brilliantly, scoring four times. However, there was one play that the Eagles QB would’ve liked back.

This fumble recovery kept the Chiefs in the game. Otherwise, the Eagles may have had anywhere from a 24-7 to 31-7 lead at halftime instead of the 10-point margin they enjoyed (and eventually lost).

To his credit, Hurts said, “You either win or you learn.” He and the rest of the Eagles plan to be back in 2024.

The Eagles were a well-balanced team on offense and also had an excellent defense. They play in a difficult division, but the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants have some work to do to catch Philly in the NFC East.

Kansas City has played in five-straight AFC Championship games, and all have been at home. Patrick Mahomes has never played a playoff game on the road (unless you count Super Bowl LV against Tampa Bay that was held at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla.).

Will next year be the year that Buffalo or Cincinnati will take home-field advantage away from the Chiefs? Both of those teams will play at Arrowhead during the 2023 regular season.

If we learned anything from Mahomes and the Chiefs this year, it’s to not bet against them or count them out.

We hate to say it given that it appears they tend to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in recent years, but the Los Angeles Chargers at +2200 could be a good bet. They have given the offense to former Cowboys coordinator Kellen Moore, so expect head coach Brandon Staley to move away from that part of the ball and focus on what he does best–the defense. Quarterback Justin Herbert and the rest of the Bolts have come oh-so-close in recent years to beating KC. Could it finally happen in 2024?

The NFC North is wide open. Defending champ Minnesota isn’t getting much respect, upstart Detroit is at +3000, and there’s uncertainty in Green Bay. At +3500, it could be worth a flier on the Packers. At those odds, however, the oddsmakers may think that Aaron Rodgers isn’t expected to return.

Speaking of Rodgers, many observers felt the New York Jets were a complete team this year–with the exception of the QB spot. Whether it’s Rodgers or someone else, the Jets want a veteran at the QB spot while they bide their time with Zach Wilson.

Teams to avoid (for the moment) include Baltimore, Miami, and Las Vegas–all clubs who have an unsettled quarterback situation. If the past few decades’ of Super Bowl winners have proved one thing, it’s that you need a big-time quarterback to win the championship in the NFL. We expect 2024 to be no different.