Predicting Each NFL Team’s Starting Quarterback in the 2022–23 Season

The Los Angeles Rams just defeated the Cincinnati Bengals in Super Bowl LVI, and although nothing is guaranteed in the NFL, we can feel confident in a basic prediction for each team. Barring any unforeseen offseason injuries, the teams are both very secure and happy with their starting quarterbacks.

Matthew Stafford overcame a nagging whisper throughout his career that he puts up empty stats and can’t win big games by going 4-0 this postseason and providing several clutch moments to lead the Rams to close wins, including a game-winning drive in the Super Bowl (and an incredible no-look pass on that drive). 

Joe Burrow at just 25 and in his second season solidified himself as one of the league’s best young quarterbacks and he should immediately vault into the MVP conversation next season.

Both players are in a select group of teams who are highly likely to enter the season with incumbents at the quarterback position. Below, we’ll do our best to predict which teams will have new quarterbacks under center when next season opens.

Teams That Feel Extremely Secure

Rams: Stafford did exactly what he was supposed to do when the Rams traded for him. He added more dynamic playmaking potential to the lineup, opened up the offense, and finally gave the Rams an offense capable of winning games on its own, taking pressure off of the team’s all-world defense.

Bengals: The Bengals must do a better job of protecting Burrow, who was sacked 70 times this season between the regular season and the playoffs. If they upgrade the offensive line and give him more time, his accuracy will make him an early favorite for MVP next season.

Bills: Josh Allen had a near-MVP season again, led the Bills to the playoffs, and had one of the best performances in NFL history in a loss to Kansas City in the playoffs. He’ll also be a favorite for next season’s MVP award.

Patriots: Mac Jones had an impressive rookie season and his maturity and ability to manage games well helped New England get back to the playoffs after a one-year hiatus. If Jones can take another step next season and make more big plays on his own, he could quickly join the ranks of the league’s elite young quarterbacks.

Jets: Last year’s No. 2 pick, Zach Wilson, had a rough rookie season, completing just 56 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns and 11 interceptions. But the team is committed to Wilson as its quarterback of the future, they’ll make some offseason moves to put more talent around him, and give him a chance to make a big improvement next season.

Ravens: Lamar Jackson is just two years removed from winning the NFL’s MVP award. He is one of the best runners in the league at quarterback, and he’s a dangerous passer, particularly on deep balls. The Ravens just barely missed the playoffs this season, but they’ll attempt to add more weapons around Jackson and get back on track. The biggest test for him will be figuring out how to win in the postseason.

Jaguars: Last year’s No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence had a tumultuous rookie season thanks in part to coach Urban Meyer’s chaotic and short tenure as coach. The team will try to surround Lawrence with more stability and give him a chance to build on the flashes of talent he showed as a rookie.

Chiefs: Mahomes won the league’s MVP award in 2018, has been in the conversation for it every year since, and came very close to playing in his third straight Super Bowl this season. He’s going nowhere, and he’s a real threat to topple just about every league passing record by the time he retires.

Chargers: Justin Herbert came within seconds of having Los Angeles in the playoffs this season. In two seasons as a starter, he’s been one of the league’s most accurate and dynamic passers. He’ll continue building on that and be in the MVP conversation next season.

Cowboys: Dak Prescott had a fantastic regular season and bounced back nicely from a serious injury last season. He won’t be going anywhere, but he will be facing immense pressure to lead the team on a playoff run after a surprising opening round loss this season.

These Players Are Probably Staying Put, but There Will Still Be Whispers

Cardinals: If any change happens here, it won’t be because the Cardinals want one. Kyler Murray is one of the most productive young quarterbacks in the league, a threat with his arm and legs, and he’s already established himself as an MVP candidate. But Murray’s social media behavior prompted some speculation that he might not be happy with the Cardinals. Murray since denied those rumors, but it at least merits keeping an eye on. 

Titans: The Titans had a great regular season, but Ryan Tannehill’s play has fallen off some from the previous two seasons and he ended the year with a bad playoff performance against the Bengals. Whispers that Aaron Rodgers might consider playing in Tennessee created some speculation that the team could part ways with him, but barring a blockbuster deal, Tannehill will be back with the team again next season.

Packers: Aaron Roders, who won his second-straight MVP award this season, seemed like this would be his last season in Green Bay after he nearly forced a trade prior to the season. But after the team’s playoff loss to San Francisco, Rodgers seemed more open to a possible return to the Packers if he doesn’t retire. The team is reportedly going to try its best to keep him, but if he really wants to move on, Green Bay may have to turn the team over to young backup Jordan Love sooner than hoped.

Raiders: The Raiders have a new coach in Josh McDaniels and a pretty good veteran quarterback in Derek Carr. Carr has been the subject of trade rumors in the past, but McDaniels seems to have taken the job in Las Vegas in part to coach Carr, so expect him to be a Raider for another season.

Bears: The team lucked out in the first round of last year’s draft when Justin Fields fell to them. Fields wasn’t done any favors by playing for a lame duck coach in a tense situation with the team, and he didn’t have a great rookie season. The Bears seem committed to Fields and they should be, but it’s hard to predict how much leeway a GM and coach who didn’t draft him will give.

Vikings: The Vikings would undoubtedly love to move on from Kirk Cousins. The team has reportedly dangled him in trades, but his contract does make him difficult to move. It’s probably more likely than not that he’ll be with the team another season.

Seahawks: Trade rumors have followed Russell Wilson around the last two seasons, but the Seahawks would likely have an immense asking price for him, especially if Rodgers isn’t on the market anymore. It still seems more likely the team will try to upgrade the talent around him and make a playoff push. 

Falcons: Matt Ryan is nearing the end of a great career, and the Falcons are rebuilding. They traded his favorite target, Julio Jones, last season, and there’s a chance several teams seeking veteran quarterbacks could check on his availability. But the team’s new coach seems interested in keeping him around, so as long as Ryan is happy in Atlanta, he probably stays. The team is definitely going to look for a future replacement for him to groom even if he does stay, though.

Eagles: Jalen Hurts entered the season without much job security. But a better-than-expected season and a surprising playoff appearance from the Eagles bought him some job security. It’s still possible they Eagles could cash in their significant stash of draft picks to trade for a star like Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson, but there’s much less pressure to make a change now, so Hurts could get another year as a starter to see if he can continue to improve.

Lions: Jared Goff didn’t have a fantastic season with the Lions last season, but he’s signed to a big contract and he’s likely better than anyone the Lions would be in position to replace him with. If the team doesn’t draft a quarterback with the No. 2 pick in the draft, expect Goff to get another season as the starter.

Giants: Daniel Jones has been the most turnover-prone quarterback in the league since the Giants drafted him in the first round three seasons ago. The patience with Jones is wearing thin in New York, but the team seems committed to letting new coach Brian Daboll work with him to try and fix his game.

Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa has been solid if unspectacular in two seasons as a Dolphins starter. He’s only 23 and has definitely shown flashes of talent, but the team also hasn’t been shy about dangling his name in trade rumors for Deshaun Watson. Tagovailoa is likely the starter, but if the Dolphins swing big for a star quarterback it wouldn’t be shocking to see Tagovailoa as part of the package.

Browns: Baker Mayfield is one of the most polarizing quarterbacks in the league. He led the Browns to the playoffs last season, but his play declined this season. The former No. 1 pick has not been consistent in his career and although the team has said it is committed to him as a starter, there have been several trade rumors with his name floated in them. 

These Teams Will Almost Assuredly Have New Starters

Buccaneers: Tom Brady’s retirement will have the Bucs scrambling for a replacement, and there will be no shortage of veterans interested in the opportunity to play in an offense full of dangerous weapons. The team doesn’t have a clear in-house candidate to step in, so expect them to pursue someone like San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo. 

Steelers: The Steelers will also be replacing a Hall of Fame quarterback, and also have an offense with significant weapons that will appeal to any veteran on the market. The team could turn to in-house candidates Mason Rudolph and Dwayne Haskins. Both have some starting experience. They could also add some veterans to compete with them or even find a young quarterback in the draft to add to that mix.

Colts: Carson Wentz’s first season with the team did not revive his career as hoped, and the Colts are already reportedly considering parting ways with him. The Colts don’t necessarily need to replace Wentz with a star. Their running game is great, which would take pressure off of any quarterback starting for them.

Texans: Deshaun Watson remains unlikely to play for the Texans again, and his legal issues make him difficult to trade as teams don’t know if he’ll face a lengthy NFL suspension. The Texans will likely continue trying to trade him and give backup Davis Mills, who had a solid rookie season and completed nearly 70 percent of his passes, a chance at the starting job. 

Broncos: Denver undoubtedly wants to go after Rodgers if he’s available, and they nearly pulled off a trade for him last season. But with it looking likelier he stays in Green Bay, the team seems ready to let Drew Lock take over as starter after Teddy Bridgewater began last season as the starter.

49ers: The Niners have already said publicly that they’ll work out a trade for Garoppolo, and it is also clear who will replace him. Last year’s first-round pick Trey Lance will take over and the team hopes his athletic gifts can open up their offense.

Panthers:  The Panthers tried unsuccessfully to fix their quarterback position last season twice. Former first round pick Sam Darnold struggled after being traded to the Panthers from the Jets. Former NFL MVP and Panther legend Cam Newton was signed, but he also struggled. With the No. 6 pick in the draft, expect Carolina to be aggressive in trying to find a young starting quarterback to solidify the position.

Washington: Washington competed for a playoff spot all season despite forgettable quarterback play. The team will certainly pursue a big-name like Russell Wilson if available, but it’s more likely a veteran like Jameis Winston or Garoppolo could be the team’s new quarterback. 

Saints: Winston was solid for the Saints when he could stay healthy, but he’s entering free agency and coming off of an injury. With Winston out, Taysom Hill showed he can’t be the team’s full-time starter either. The team, like Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay, has significant offensive talent and can contend with even average quarterback play, so expect the Saints to also be in the mix for a player like Garoppolo.