NFL Week 18 Prop Bets: Key Players Push for Playoff Berths

The Jalen Hurts rushing touchdown streak ended last week, but we were able to salvage some units with the expected big passing day by Dak Prescott against Detroit. For the final week of the regular season, there are plenty of land mines to avoid.

It’s already been announced that several teams that have sewn up their playoff positioning will be resting players. Among them, quarterbacks Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy, Matthew Stafford, and Joe Flacco. Other teams could take their foot off the gas depending on the results of Saturday’s and Sunday’s games.

For our NFL Week 18 prop bets, we’re focusing on players who will be on teams that are in meaningful games. They can be expected to get 100% effort on offense and defense, so we are limiting those land mines with our selections.

Saturday’s Houston vs. Indianapolis game is a playoff eliminator. While the winner is assured at least a wild card berth (and possible AFC South championship if Jacksonville loses at Tennessee), the loser will be going home for the offseason.

The Colts have one of the best running backs in football in Jonathan Taylor, but they may be better served relying on the arm of Gardner Minshew to return to the postseason.

Minshew has been solid in relief of Anthony Richardson this year — especially as of late. In his last four games, he has seven touchdown passes against just two interceptions.

In relief of Richardson in the Colts’ Week 2 win at Houston, Minshew threw for 171 yards and a touchdown in around 2.5 quarters of work. Taylor didn’t play in that game, but the Texans come in with a top-five run defense.

Their pass defense, however, ranks in the bottom 10. If the Colts can’t establish the run, or if this game turns into a shootout, we like plus money for Minshew to pass for at least two touchdowns (over 1.5 TD passes, +130 at DraftKings).

The Buffalo Bills have placed more of an emphasis on the run game since changing offensive coordinators in November.

James Cook had more than 15 rushes just once in the team’s first 10 games. But after the switch from Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady, Cook’s reps have gone up. In the six games since, Cook has run the ball more than 15 times in five of those contests.

While more reps hasn’t always translated to more yardage for Cook, additional opportunities give him more chances to break off a big run.

The Bills have two more reasons to feature Cook in their showdown with Miami for the AFC East title.

For these reasons, we like Cook to eclipse the relatively modest total set at BetMGM (over 63.5 rushing yards, -115).

Check out Sidelines’ Best Bets for Week 18 of the NFL season.

The Green Bay Packers’ offense may be at their healthiest point all season for their crucial Week 18 matchup with the rival Chicago Bears. The Pack need to just win this home game to clinch a spot in the playoffs in Jordan Love’s first season as the starting quarterback.

Love is expected to have his full complement of receivers with Christian Watson trending to play. In addition, Aaron Jones is looking at his best since a Week 1 hamstring injury at Chicago.

Jones has recorded his only two 100-yard rushing games of the year in Weeks 16 and 17. He and Love celebrated appropriately after a 120-yard effort over Minnesota on New Year’s Eve.

Before leaving the Week 1 win at Chicago, Jones rushed nine times for 41 yards. He was a much bigger force through the air, catching two passes for 88 yards and a touchdown.

The Bears come into this game with the league’s best rush defense, allowing just 88 yards per contest. With Love — who threw for 245 yards and three TDs in the 38-20 win in September — having all of his wide receivers along with Jones available to catch passes, expect the Packers to be more effective in the passing game.

Because of those factors, we lean toward the under for Jones’ rushing total of 62.5 (-115) at FanDuel.