NFL Week 18 Preview: Texans vs. Colts Odds and Best Bets

One of the reasons we love the NFL is that you never know who is going to emerge out of nowhere and have a great season.

Before the season started, Houston’s over-under win total was 5.5. The Colts weren’t much better at 6.5. Little was expected from each team starting a rookie quarterback.

But, as legendary ESPN broadcaster Chris Berman says: that’s why they play the games.

C.J. Stroud is a rookie of the year contender in leading the Texans to a 9-7 mark in head coach DeMeco Ryans’ first season. Similarly, first-year coach Shane Steichen is 9-7 with backup Gardner Minshew playing most of the year after top-five pick Anthony Richardson was lost for the season in early October.

The AFC South is a three-team race, with Jacksonville playing a win-and-in game at Tennessee on Sunday. But on Saturday night, Houston and Indianapolis meet at Lucas Oil Stadium to determine who will go to the playoffs — either as wild card or division champ. Here are our Texans vs. Colts odds and best bets.

Neither team is known for their defensive prowess, and their Week 2 matchup in Houston saw the Colts win 31-20.

But looking at recent performances, we’re favoring the under here.

In their last five games, the Texans have gone under their set over-under total in four of them. For the Colts, they’ve totaled 48 points or fewer in four of their last five.

Both teams are solid at protecting the ball. The Texans rank tied for fourth in the NFL with a +9 turnover differential. Stroud is also great at protecting the ball — his 21:5 TD-to-interception ratio is more than solid for a rookie passer. Indy is tied for 11th with a +3 differential. This means there’s a lesser chance that turnovers leading to points will occur in this one.

While both teams come in relatively healthy (Stroud, Jonathan Taylor, and Michael Pittman have all returned in recent weeks), expect the defenses to play well enough with the stakes so high to keep the total below this traditionally high total.

Both teams have a propensity to start fast.

In their Week 2 matchup, the score was 14-7 in favor of the Colts after the first quarter. Since their bye week, Indy has found the end zone in four of its last six games. In the last two weeks, Jonathan Taylor has had the honors both times.

The Texans haven’t been as fortunate as of late, last scoring in the opening period in Week 13. However, the Colts defense has allowed a first-quarter TD in three of its last four games. And for this prop bet, each team just needs to score three points. And Houston’s Ka’imi Fairbairn is a perfect 10-10 since returning from injury.

Both Stroud and Minshew will be playing in the biggest game of their careers on Saturday. While the winner is assured at least the No. 7 seed in the AFC playoffs (and could move up to the 4-seed with a Jaguars loss on Sunday), the loser will be out of the playoff picture.

While both teams have alternated wins and losses over the past month and a half, Indianapolis has been better at home as of late. With a 23-20 win over the Raiders that wasn’t as close as the score indicated — the Raiders scored a touchdown in the final minute — it marked the Colts’ third win in a row at Lucas Oil Stadium. The other two wins were over Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay, who both remain in playoff contention going into the final week of the season.

Just Houston’s two of its last seven games have been on the road. One was an overtime win at Tennessee; the other was a 30-6 throttling at the New York Jets. The Texans’ best win, however, did come on the road at Cincinnati.

Stroud was great in that game, but he is missing rookie wide receiver Tank Dell, which has limited the Texans’ offense against stronger opponents.

The line for this one is hovering between a half-point and -1.5 in favor of the Colts. Don’t expect much movement, so you might be able to get a tad more favorable odds for the Colts on the moneyline and not have to worry about the spread.

While you get ready for Week 18, Sidelines has you covered. Check out our top-five picks for the final week of the NFL regular season along with key prop bets to consider.