NFL: Week 17 Picks, Best Bets, and Odds

At least 4 quarterback who started last week won’t be started this week. Tua Tagovailoa, Derek Carr, Taylor Heinicke, and Zach Wilson will all be sitting due to injury or poor play. How does this shakeup the spreads and NFL odds for Week 17? last week we hit on 2/3 of our best bets, let’s go for all 3 of them this time.

We should all be avoiding the Titans without Derrick Henry or Ryan Tannehill at all costs. Even with Henry, Tennessee has only scored more than 16 points once in their last 6 games. They’re 27th in the league in scoring. The Cowboys haven’t scored less than 27 in their last 8 games and are 3rd in the league in scoring.
The pick: Cowboys -12.5

The Eagles showed what they could do even without Jalen Hurts against the Cowboys last week. They still have a top-10 defense, and their 1st ranked scoring offense didn’t seem hindered by the presence of Gardner Minshew.

The pick: Eagles -5.5

The Colts are a disaster. They scored 3 points last week against the 21st ranked defense in the league. It doesn’t matter who their quarterback is, they can’t score points. The Giants have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games.

The pick: Giants -5.5 (BEST BET)

The Chiefs’ offense ranks 2nd in points and 1st in yards. The Baker Mayfield led Rams just torched the Broncos defense to the tune of 51 points last week, but this game will be close. The last time they played the Chiefs squeezed out a 6-point victory but it was much closer than the 9.5 point spread indicated it would be.

The pick: Broncos +12.5

The Jaguars are actually one of the hottest teams in football right now. They’ve won 5 of their last 7 games and covered the spread in all 5 of those wins. Trevor Lawrence is really starting to look like the read deal. The Texans won their first game since Week 5 last week but the surging Jaguars should have no problem covering with a potential playoff spot on the line.

The pick: Jaguars -4.5 ( BEST BET)

This one is going to be close. The Bears have nothing to play for and the Lions have a playoff spot on the line, but division rivals love to play spoiler in December. Also, did you see the Panthers run on this Lions team last week? Have fun, Justin Fields.

The pick: Bears +6

If Tom Brady weren’t on the Bucs, the Panthers would be the obvious pick here, but Brady always seems to get it done when it’s absolutely necessary. Well it’s crunch time now. The Bucs are infinitely better on paper, they just need to actually play like it. If the Bucs lose, the Panthers are in prime position to leapfrog them and take the NFC South.

The pick: Bucs -3

The Dolphins have lost 4 straight with Tua Tagovailoa under center, and haven’t won at all this year with Tua on the bench. Bill Belichick in December with the playoffs on the line against a backup quarterback? Yes, please.

The pick: Patriots -3

The Browns have nothing to play for, while the Commanders have a playoff spot on the line and Carson Wentz has his future in the NFL hanging in the balance. This is an audition for Wentz to be next year’s starter, and he has a much better run game behind him than before his injury plus a fully healthy receiving corps.

The pick: Commanders -1.5 (BEST BET)

Both of these teams are terrible. Colt McCoy though has a better grip over his offense and he has better weapons in his arsenal. This game may be truly ugly.

The pick: Cardinals +3

Benching Derek Carr for Jarret Stidham isn’t going to help the Raiders score any more points. The 49ers are 6-0 against the spread in their last 6 games and the streak isn’t likely to end in Las Vegas.

The pick: 49ers -10

The return of Mike White is something all Jets fans are thrilled about. He may have only gone 1-2 as a starter so far, but the two losses were against the Bills and Vikings. White can move the ball and makes his offense an actual threat. The Seahawks haven’t covered a spread since November 6th.

The pick: Jets -1.5 (FD)

The Vikings whooped up on the Packers earlier in the season, but things are a bit different now. Minnesota’s defense gives up the 5th most points in the league and they’re dead last against the past. Meanwhile the season is on the line for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers who are riding a 3-game winning streak.

The pick: Packers -3

Baker Mayfield has all the reasons he needs to play his heart out to finish off this season – extend his career. Last week he had one of the best games in his career: 280 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no picks, while completing 85% of his passes for a QB rating of 124.7. The Rams are going to make this close.

The pick: Rams +6.5

The Steelers are 4-1 straight up and against the spread over their last 5 games. Mike Tomlin refuses to coach a team to a record below .500. The Ravens on the other hand are 2-4 against the spread in their last 6, and Lamar Jackson appears no closer to playing.

The pick: Steelers +2.5

The Bengals and Bills have the 2nd and 3rd largest winning streaks in the league right now at 7 and 6 games respectively. They both have top-5 odds to win the Super Bowl. Against the spread though, the Bengals have been more consistent. The Bengals have also won 7 straight against the spread while the Bills are 3-6 in their last 9 games.

The pick: Bengals +1.5 (FD)