NFL Odds continued to react to surprising results from the following week. Underdogs ruled the weekend once again, posting a 9-5 record against the spread. Underdogs improved to 86-63-1 on the season, cashing in on nearly 58 percent of bets. Home favorites have surprisingly struggled this season, sporting a 34-56-1 record against the spread and failing to cover 72.8 percent of the time.
The Under has also held sway this season. The Total has come Under 83 times this season, 55.7 percent of the time. In non-overtime contests, the Under hits nearly 60 percent of the time.
NFL Bye Weeks continue in Week 11, but just two teams get the week off: the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams. NFL Week 11 Picks and Predictions navigates through all of the Week 11 NFL lines.
Despite all looming playoff uncertainty, NFL Week 11 features a number of actionable lines and totals to bet this weekend. Here’s a look at five of the best bets to follow for Week 11.
The Indianapolis Colts play the Buffalo Bills in this matchup of AFC Conference playoff hopefuls. Once rivals in the old AFC East, these two clubs find themselves jockeying for position among the other playoff hopes in the conference. Both teams enter coming off of a win, although Buffalo’s dismantling of the Jets was far more impressive than Indy’s win over the Jaguars.
The Colts (5-5, 6-4 ATS) come to this one with a record that seems to belie how good they might be. Indy’s won four of their last five games, with the only loss coming by three points in overtime. That said, they haven’t defeated a team with a winning record all season.
But Indy sports one of the top running backs in the game with Jonathan Taylor. He continued his breakout season, gaining 116 yards and scoring a touchdown against Jacksonville last week. Indy is now 9-0 when Taylor runs for 100 yards. The Colts can control the clock, which should limit Buffalo’s opportunities.
The Bills (6-3, 6-3 ATS) rolled last week against the New York Jets. Buffalo defeated their AFC East rival 45-17. They forced five turnovers. That said, the offense struggled in six of the eight quarters ahead of that rout of the Jets.
Buffalo will be without starting right tackle Spencer Brown for this one, as the rookie landed on COVID list earlier this week. Brown missed the two games following the team’s bye, incidentally the games that the offense really struggled. He returned last week for the game against the Jets.
The Bills need this win, especially considering how well the New England Patriots are playing of late, but this one could be a slog.
Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers
Best Bet: Carolina -3/-110 (DraftKings)
The Washington Football Team plays the Carolina Panthers in this matchup of conference rivals hoping for a late-season playoff push. Both teams enter coming off impressive victories. Washington hosted the defending Super Bowl champs last week, and saddled Brady and the Bucs with a 10-point loss. The Panthers, meanwhile, welcomed Cam Newton back to their huddle and promptly dismantled a shorthanded Arizona Cardinals team.
Washington (3-6, 2-7 ATS) picked up the upset of the week in Week 10 with their 29-19 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Washington nabbed two early interceptions and held on against the defending Super Bowl champs. But now they travel to Carolina, the former home of their head coach, to face a resurgent Panthers squad.
The biggest issue for Washington in this one might be the lack of playmakers along the defensive line. Second-year end Chase Young exited last week’s game with a knee injury and will miss the remainder of the season after tearing his ACL. Washington’s also missing Montez Sweat.
Washington must contend with the league’s top passing defense. The Panthers D allows just 194.3 passing yards per game, which ranks first in the NFL. Washington, meanwhile, averages 244.1 passing yards per game, 21st in the league.
The Panthers (5-5, 5-5 ATS) enjoyed the return of Cam Newton last week. Although the former league MVP played only in spots, Newton injected a level of life into the Carolina sideline that the team hadn’t seen since it’s 3-0 start. This game will be his first back at Bank of America Stadium in front of the home fans in Charlotte.
Although expectations should be tempered when it comes to Newton, McCaffery seems like more the key to Carolina. The Panthers are 4-1 both straight up and against the spread when he plays this season. McCaffery has 348 rushing yards and one touchdown in five games this season, good for a 4.4 yards per carry average. He’s made 30 receptions for 283 yards.
The combination of McCaffery and Newton should improve Carolina’s 22nd ranked red zone offense. The Panthers have the better defense and should be amped up in front of the home crowd. It also helps that teams coming off their Bye week are 5-11 against the spread this season.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Best Bet: Dolphins -3.5/-110 (Bovada)
The Miami Dolphins play the New York Jets in this matchup of AFC East rivals. These teams come to their Week 11 game coming off very different outings. The Dolphins shocked the NFL by dismantling the Baltimore Ravens offense in their Week 10 victory. Meanwhile, the Jets took a beating at the hands of the Buffalo Bills.
The Dolphins (3-7, 4-6 ATS) scored a surprise victory over Baltimore with their 22-10 win last Thursday. Now, Miami travels north after a few extra days of rest for this battle to avoid the AFC East cellar.
The Dolphins’ two-game winning streak has been fueled by a resurgent defense. In these two wins, Miami’s allowed a total of 19 points to opponents. They’ve also put up season-lows in yards allowed in those games and forced six total turnovers. The Dolphins now rank fifth in takeaways, and lead the NFL in passes defensed (54) and quarterback hits (66).
The Jets (2-7, 2-7 ATS) will turn to Joe Flacco at starting quarterback for this one following their 45-17 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Mike White threw four interceptions then exited this rout early with an injury.
New York’s defense allowed 45 points for the second straight week. The Jets have now allowed a whopping 202 points over their last five games. They’ve allowed at least 31 points in four of those contests.
Last season, the Dolphins limited New York to three total points over their two matchups. When Flacco started for the Jets in Miami, he went 21 of 44 for 186 yards with an interception and a fumble. The Dolphins sacked him three times and limited New York to 263 total yards and 2-of-17 on third down.
The Dolphins are 6-1 both straight up and against the spread in their last seven games against New York.
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles
Best Bet: New Orleans Moneyline +115 (Caesars)
The New Orleans Saints play the Philadelphia Eagles in this conference matchup of playoff hopefuls. The Saints suffered through a Week 10 loss that saw them without five different starters against the Tennessee Titans. The Eagles, meanwhile, traveled to Denver and took home an impressive win against the Broncos. This game is shaping up as a must-win for both teams if they want to make a run at the NFC playoffs.
The Saints (5-4, 5-4 ATS) have been one of the hard-luck teams in the NFL this season. Injuries have decimated this roster, and last week, their furious comeback with a third-string quarterback came up just short. Despite the missing offensive pieces, the Saints outgained Tennessee 373-264, and had a chance to tie the game late. It didn’t help New Orleans that kicker Brian Johnson missed a pair of extra points earlier.
New Orleans features one of the league’s top defensive units, though. The Saints rank first in rushing defense, allowing an NFL-low 72.9 yards per game on the ground. They’re also first in yards per rush allowed (3.1), and seventh in scoring defense (19.8 points per game).
This game is lining up as a strength-against-strength battle, considering the Eagles (4-6, 5-5 ATS) recent focus on the running game. Philly ranks third in the league in rushing yards per game (144.3) and fourth in yards per rush (4.0). The Eagles offense has come together since limiting Jalen Hurts’ passing attempts.
New Orleans will also try to run the ball, but are facing a much more lenient Philly rush defense. The Eagles enter this one winless at home this season, 0-4. The Saints, meanwhile, are 16-4 straight up in their last 20 road games.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Best Bet: Houston +10.5/-110 (BetMGM)
The Houston Texans play the Tennessee Titans in this matchup of AFC South division rivals. The Texans enter this one off their Bye Week after a disappointing showing in their Week 9 matchup in Miami. Houston welcomed Tyrod Taylor back to the huddle in that one but still lost. The Titan, meanwhile, vaulted to the top of the conference standings with yet another win.
The Texans (1-8, 4-5 ATS) enter this one as a double-digit underdog for the sixth time this season. They’ve covered in two of those previous five games. And despite the dismal 1-8 record overall, Houston’s been almost average against the spread. They’re facing a Titans squad that’s struggled to consistently run the ball without Derrick Henry and one that’ll be without Julio Jones yet again.
Houston’s 14-6 against the spread in their last 20 matchups with the Titans. Veteran quarterback Tyrod Taylor should look a lot better in his second game coming off his hamstring injury after an extra week of rest.
The Titans (8-2, 7-3 ATS) eked out a two-point win last week against the Jameis Winston and Alvin Kamara-less New Orleans Saints. Tennessee was aided greatly by a questionable penalty that reversed what would have been a costly end zone interception by Ryan Tannehill.
Despite an impressive 7-3 mark against the spread this season, the Titans have covered just two of the four games in which they were favorites. Two of Tennessee’s last three games have been one-score affairs, with the Titans winning by two and by three. Tennessee would have covered a 10.5-point spread in only three of their 10 games this season.
The Texans covered a 16.5-point earlier this season. Over the last four weeks, teams entering as underdogs of 10-points or more have posted a 7-4-1 record against the spread. Road teams have covered in four of five opportunities over that span.