NFL Rookie of the Year Odds: Surprising Favorite Ahead of QB Class

We’re in that two- to three-week stretch every year where there isn’t a lot new to handicap in the NFL. Once the regular season ends, the draft talk ramps up and lasts nearly 2.5 months until late April. The 2023 schedule isn’t due out for a few more days–and it might be delayed further–at which point, we’ll have a better idea of futures bets along with a full Week 1 rundown.

Until then, we can take a look at the recent top draft picks and project how they will do with their new teams. Let’s take a look at the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds and favorites, led by a player who is NOT one of the top quarterbacks selected.

Quarterbacks were selected with the top-three picks of the 2023 NFL Draft, but a running back selected at No. 8 is on top of the odds for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year at DraftKings.

Robinson will likely have an easier transition than the quarterbacks selected 1-3 a couple of weeks ago. He also has another factor besides talent working in his favor. That’s Atlanta Falcons head coach Arthur Smith. He was the offensive coordinator at Tennessee when the Titans drafted Derrick Henry, who led the league in rushing twice under Smith and was NFL Offensive Player of the year in 2020.

Robinson comes into the NFL as perhaps the most league-ready player in the draft. The Falcons have question marks all over the place, starting with quarterback Desmond Ritter and plenty of holes on defense. Individually, Robinson has also been training with 2021 Offensive ROY Ja’Marr Chase of Cincinnati.

Keeping all that in mind, it could set Robinson up for a big season where he posts numbers impressive enough to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year on a team that doesn’t perform well overall.

Unlike Robinson, who could have a big year on a bad team, it’s unlikely that a rookie quarterback will have a good year if his team struggles. Justin Herbert (2020) and Kyler Murray (2019) were the two most-recent QBs to win the award. Dak Prescott is the most recent QB to win it and lead his team to the playoffs, which happened in 2016 after Tony Romo suffered a back injury that preseason.

In looking at Bryce Young (Carolina), C.J. Stroud (Houston), and Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis), it’s hard seeing any of those teams making a playoff run. The AFC South could actually have three rookie quarterbacks playing if Will Levis gets the nod in Tennessee, but Jacksonville will be strong in that division.

Of the three, Young would probably be the most likely to win his division. Last year, Tampa Bay won the NFC South at 8-9. And that was with Tom Brady. This year, the Bucs’ quarterback is Baker Mayfield. We already talked about the Falcons, and New Orleans will be led by Derek Carr, who had some success in Las Vegas. But if he played better for the Raiders, he would still be there. The only question for Young is whether he will start right away ahead of Andy Dalton.

Two players standing out at great value are Jordan Addison (+1700) and Zay Flowers (+1800). Both are joining division-winning teams with proven quarterbacks.

Addison, out of USC, goes to Minnesota, where–say what you will about Kirk Cousins, but he can get the ball to some big-time wide receivers. First there was Stefon Diggs (now with Buffalo), then Adam Thielen (who is in Carolina), and Justin Jefferson just put up a season for the ages. Could Addison be next in the long line of Cousins’ success stories with the Vikings?

For Flowers, his upside has been compared to Diggs. NFL executives also loved his character, given that he played all four years at Boston College and didn’t transfer to a sexier team. The Ravens also signed Lamar Jackson to a long extension and gave him two other weapons in Odell Beckham Jr. and Nelson Agholor. Flowers also practiced returning punts at the Ravens’ rookie mini camp. Head coach John Harbaugh said the rookie could be used in that spot as well as running routes for Jackson.

Based on how he could be used in the offense, we like Robinson despite being the favorite. For added value, it’s hard to turn away from Flowers’ body of work at BC, and given that Beckham and Agholor have had injury concerns in recent years, Flowers could end up playing a bigger part in what should be a playoff team with the Ravens.