Securing a franchise quarterback sets the cornerstone for any NFL team’s roster construction. Although drafting is an inexact science, taking college quarterbacks in the first round of the NFL draft, even with other seemingly more pro-ready prospects on the Big Board, has become common practice. In 2021 alone, the top three selections, and five of the first 15 picks, were quarterbacks.
However, more than half of the top 30 quarterbacks drafted between 2015 and 2020 are no longer with the team that selected them. Among those 16 players, five were picked either first or second overall. So, finding frontline starters at the quarterback position sometimes comes from approaches other than the draft.
Over the last two off-seasons alone, several Pro Bowl signal callers switched squads, with two leading their new teams to Super Bowl wins (Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford). Here’s a look at five quarterbacks with new team odds for 2022.
The Green Bay Packers find themselves in a very similar position as they were last offseason, with drama involving All-Pro quarterback Aaron Rodgers. While the four-time league MVP could very well stay in Wisconsin, this year’s speculation comes amid a cryptic Instagram post and following an offseason where the star signal caller made a public trade quest and couldn’t come to terms on a contract extension.
The new team odds from DraftKings for Rodgers as of February 22nd had the 10-time Pro Bowler’s 2022 home team set as Green Bay still (-250), but five other clubs sported less than +1,500 odds.
The Denver Broncos hold the best odds other than Green Bay, at +350. The Broncos stood among Rodgers’ suitors last offseason, and have a vacancy at quarterback entering 2022, with incumbent starter Teddy Bridgewater entering free agency after an unremarkable season. What’s more, Denver hired Rodgers’ former quarterbacks coach, Nathaniel Hackett, to be their new head coach.
Other teams with quarterback questions among those with new team odds for Rodgers include the San Francisco 49ers (+800), the Indianapolis Colts (+1000), Pittsburgh Steelers (+1200), and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1400). Both the Steelers and Bucs saw their signal callers retire following the 2021 season, so there are openings under center there. The Niners and Colts, meanwhile, would be seeking QB upgrades.
According to OverTheCap.com, the Packers sit more than $30 million over the salary cap for 2022. That’s the second-worst cap situation in the league heading into the offseason. Should the Packers deal Rodgers to one of these, or any other club, Green Bay saves $19.3 million. The team invested a 2020 first-round pick in Jordan Love, but they’ve already started working on clearing cap space for this offseason.
Green Bay restructured the deals of left tackle David Bakhtiari, defensive tackle Kenny Clark, and running back Aaron Jones to create more cap room. Those moves help the Packers get closer to re-signing star wideout, and Rodgers’ favorite target, Davante Adams. That could only stand to improve Green Bay’s odds of retaining their quarterback.
The Seattle Seahawks enter the 2022 offseason following a disappointing end to their 2021 campaign. The Seahawks started 2021 with the tenth-best odds (+2500) to reach Super Bowl LVI. BetMGM also slotted Seattle with the tenth-best odds to make the playoffs (-130), and the 11th-best odds (+2000) to finish with the league’s best record.
But the team finished 7-10 and in last place in the NFC West. What became abundantly clear as the season progressed was Seattle’s lack of playmakers outside of Wilson’s top two receivers, Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. The Seahawks sport the eighth-most cap space entering the offseason, but have questions along the offensive line and in the secondary to address.
This is the second straight offseason of discontent for Wilson, and for Seattle, it’s hard to see a clear path of improvement in a stocked division. The Seahawks may wonder if it’s time to move on from the nine-time Pro Bowler who led the team to a Super Bowl title in 2013. Should Seattle opt to trade Wilson, they’d net $11 million in salary cap savings and likely a treasure trove of draft assets.
DraftKings listed Seattle as the front runner in their new team odds for Wilson, setting the Seahawks at -250. It’s no surprise to see Tampa Bay (+1200) and Pittsburgh (+1200) on this list, considering their situations, but DraftKings puts the Philadelphia Eagles (+1500) and Miami Dolphins (+1500) here as well.
Both of those teams have young but so far disappointing starting quarterbacks in Jalen Hurts for the Eagles and Tua Tagovailoa for the Dolphins. While it’s unlikely Philly moves on from Hurts after a playoff run this season, he could be part of the package pitched to acquire Wilson. As for the Dolphins, rumors around Tagovailoa’s replacement are nothing new. What’s more, Miami just hired Darrell Bevell as their quarterbacks coach, someone who was Seattle’s offensive coordinator for the first six seasons of Wilson’s career, including that Super Bowl win.
The San Francisco 49ers nearly made it to the Super Bowl this season, which would have been their second with Jimmy Garoppolo as their starting quarterback. Normally, that sort of success would ensure a player his starting spot, but the lasting image of the 2021 Niners season might very well be Garoppolo’s flailing interception to seal the NFC title game loss to their division rivals, the Los Angeles Rams.
While Garoppolo has a positive record in the postseason, his performances leave something to be desired. Garoppolo’s guided San Francisco to a 35-16 record as their starting quarterback, and a 4-2 mark in the postseason. But his playoff numbers pale in comparison to those put up by successful postseason signal callers. Garoppolo averages just 160.3 yards passing per game with a 60.6 completion percentage, with four touchdowns and six interceptions in six career playoff games.
The driving factor for the quarterback questions in San Francisco might not be Garoppolo’s play. The Niners invested significant draft capital to acquire the No. 3 overall selection 2021, taking Trey Lance, who stands as a potential NFL breakout candidate for 2022. What’s more, San Francisco is one of 11 teams currently over the salary cap ($4.4 million). Garoppolo has one year left on his contract, but moving on from the veteran quarterback saves San Francisco over $25 million.
While the most likely scenario keeps Garoppolo in San Francisco through the end of his contract next season, DraftKings noted five teams with seemingly favorable odds to land the eight-year veteran. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers hold the top spot on that list with +350 odds. Garoppolo landing with the Bucs could be the most ironic destination, considering he was once drafted by the Patriots as the heir apparent to Tom Brady in New England.
Among the other clubs listed by DraftKings are the Steelers (+400), the Commanders (+500), the Broncos (550), and the Carolina Panthers (+700).
The Cleveland Browns stood among the most disappointing NFL teams in 2021. The Browns entered 2021 with the eighth-best odds (+1600) to make Super Bowl LVI, according to BetMGM. That sportsbook also had Cleveland listed with the fifth-best odds (+900) to finished with the NFL’s best record and the sixth-best odds (-250) to make the playoffs. Cleveland finished the season 8-9, going a disappointing 7-10 against the spread.
Baker Mayfield’s inconsistent performance throughout the season left Cleveland with quarterback questions entering 2022. Injuries marred his (and Cleveland’s season), but Mayfield still finished with career-lows in passing yards, quarterback rating, and touchdowns. The Browns went 2-6 against the spread as a favorite in 2021, with all six of those ATS losses coming in Cleveland.
Entering his fifth NFL season, Mayfield’s finished with an above .500 record only once and had notable regressions in accuracy and production in 2021. The Browns exercised Mayfield’s fifth-year contract option last offseason, leaving them on the hook for over $18 million in 2022, but they’ve yet to sign him to a contract extension. Cleveland enters the offseason with the 11th-most cap space, so there’s room to improve the roster around the former No. 1 overall pick.
Because of his contract situation, Mayfield’s most likely team for 2022 remains the Cleveland Browns. However, BetSided listed other notable destinations with new team odds for Mayfield. Among those, the Seahawks (+350), the Commanders (+600), the Broncos (+900), and the Packers (+1200). Mayfield could be a consolation prize for some teams with quarterback questions heading into 2022, considering he’s on an expiring contract.
The Houston Texans sidelined Deshaun Watson for the entirety of the 2021 season following the legal issues swirling around the three-time Pro Bowl quarterback. Trade rumors hit a fever-pitch last season when it looked like Watson was headed to Miami, but talks between the Texans and Dolphins ultimately broke down. Houston remained steadfast in their asking starting at three first-round selections and more.
When he last played in 2020, Watson put up near-MVP numbers, leading the league with 4,823 passing yards and 8.9 yards per attempt. He threw 33 touchdown passes and completed over 70 percent of his throws, but the Texans went just 4-12. Watson has led his team to playoff success, but the 22 active civil lawsuits accusing him of sexual assault and misconduct keep the questions of his availability on the forefront.
That said, DraftKings listed Houston with +1000 odds as Watson’s next team for 2022. The team seems intent on trading him, and several other squads could take the plunge for the former Pro Bowler, despite the legal troubles and possible league suspension. What’s more, Watson carries a hefty salary, one that would net the Texans over $24 million if he’s traded.
The Washington Commanders lead the DraftKings list of new team odds for Watson at +300. The Commanders are reportedly on the lookout for an upgrade at quarterback, despite having Taylor Heinicke. Following Washington on the list are the Buccaneers (+350) and Steelers (+900), since both have vacancies at starting quarterback.
The New Orleans Saints come in with +900 odds following their first season without Drew Brees under center. The Saints made a late push for the playoffs in 2021, but ultimately came up short with a quarterback crew that included Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill, Trevor Siemian, and Ian Book last year. The Minnesota Vikings (+1000) are fifth on the new teams odds list for Watson and it wouldn’t be a shock if they move on from their starting quarterback, Kirk Cousins.
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