NFL MVP Odds: Betting on a Tight Race at 2023 Midway Point

With the NFL season now past the halfway point, the quest for Most Valuable Player is heating up. There is a tight race for the award, one that will come down to the final weeks. The current options include the top candidates from last year’s award, a former MVP, and a surprising name.

Here are our four best bets based on the NFL MVP odds after Week 10 of the 2023 season.

Patrick Mahomes won the 2022 MVP award after a stellar season and another Super Bowl. In 2023, he’s followed up with another strong campaign. Mahomes currently has +300 odds on BetMGM to win the award. He is our current favorite to walk away with the trophy.

Being a two-time MVP won’t get in Mahomes’ way. Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers both won three MVPs respectively in the last 15 years. Mahomes has the worst weapons on this list (by far), but stats don’t portray that. He has 17 touchdowns and over 2,400 yards through nine games. And his 68.6% completion rate is a personal best. Mahomes is the definition of a team’s MVP.

Mahomes has the pedigree to win MVP for a third time. Voters understand just how good he is, giving him the edge in a close race. The Chiefs sit at 7-2 too, so record isn’t an issue. If the season ended today, Patrick Mahomes is your MVP.

Jalen Hurts nearly won MVP last season. This year, he came in with something to prove. Hurts has put that on display and, once again, is a strong contender. The quarterback currently sits at +330 to win the award on Caesars Sportsbook. For how this season is taking shape, this is a strong bet.

Hurts has AJ Brown and Devonta Smith as weapons. Team talent isn’t an issue. The focus will be on his own performances. Hurts has been strong this year – ranking fifth among active starters in completion percentage, top ten in passing touchdowns and yards, and among the top for rushing TDs.

But turnovers are holding him back. Hurts has eight interceptions this season, already two more than 2022. Controlling that is imperative. Hurts has tough defenses coming up in Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco, and Dallas, but he’s shown he can win the big games. It’s all about limiting mistakes. And if he does, Hurts will be at the top of the list.

Lamar Jackson won MVP in 2019 after a dominant 13-2 record with Baltimore. It was one of the greatest single seasons of all time. His current stats aren’t on par with the 2019 campaign, but that doesn’t mean Jackson can’t contend for another MVP. Lamar currently has odds of +550 on FanDuel Sportsbook to win MVP. This is definitely good value.

Jackson, like Mahomes, doesn’t have the greatest weapons, but he makes it work. His completion rate is over 70%, by far his career-best. His QBR hasn’t been this high in three years. And, most importantly, he’s been healthy thus far. Availability pads the case for MVP, and Jackson has that on his side.

The Raven also has five rushing touchdowns, equaling his 2021 and 2022 campaigns combined. And at just five interceptions, he ranks second out of these candidates for least picks. Lamar is calculated and the definition of a team player. Baltimore is currently one game up in the AFC North at 7-3, pending Thursday’s huge matchup with Cincinnati. Not winning the division could be an issue for Jackson’s case. But if the Ravens do and Lamar keeps chugging along, he’s right up there.

A rookie couldn’t win MVP, right? Well… C.J. Stroud may debunk that. The Houston Texans had an over/under wins total of just 5.5 before the season started, according to FOX Sports. Houston currently sits just one win away from already eclipsing that line. Stroud sits at +2500 to win MVP, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. We love these odds.

Stroud hasn’t missed a beat from his Ohio State days. His 15 passing touchdowns rank top 10 in the league.  Stroud’s 2,600-plus passing yards sit second.  But what’s even more impressive are his turnover numbers. Stroud’s two interceptions are the least of any starting QB this season. Stroud leading the Texans to a win on the road at Cincinnati last week amounted to a coming-out party for the rookie.

Stroud has been strong and consistent in his rookie year. He’s outperformed proven stars like Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Joe Burrow. That should continue with Houston’s remaining schedule: five of its remaining eight games are against losing teams. If the Texans stay in the playoff picture, his resume grows. This is an obvious longshot, but the path is there for C.J. to get it done.

Tagovailoa’s season has been extremely impressive, and the Dolphins are looking at a likely AFC East crown with the underachieving Bills currently two games behind. But the Dolphins being 0-3 against winning teams — and Miami scoring fewer than 24 points in each of those games — is not an MVP-caliber statistic.