NFL Futures: Three Best Bets for Team Win Overs/Unders

As we progress through the summer and NFL camps restart, it’s the perfect time to consider potential futures bets for the upcoming 2023 season. While a few teams may still be finalizing their rosters, most have established their core.  With a whole lot of change taking place this offseason, let’s delve into some of the most promising value bets for team totals.

Vegas seems to have little faith in the Vikings. Despite their impressive 13-4 record last season, their projected win total is a modest eight wins. While they did lose Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook, their contributions can be adequately replaced. Thielen’s numbers weren’t exceptional, and Jordan Addison should seamlessly fit right in. Antonio Mattison, with his experience in this offense, will pose a significant threat, especially when the passing game gains momentum. Reaching nine wins shouldn’t be difficult. They have favorable matchups against the Lions, Bears, and Packers each twice, along with the Bucs, Cardinals, Panthers, Falcons, and Raiders. That alone should secure them seven or eight wins. Minnesota wasn’t expected to win 13 games last season, and while luck played a factor, their consistent and quality play on the field and in the coaching staff proved their worth.

After a disappointing early playoff exit, the Vikings are poised to perform well in 2023. Let’s not forget about Justin Jefferson, one of the brightest stars in the game, capable of carrying his team at any moment. The Vikings should have no problems crushing the over. 

Last season was an interesting one for the Ravens. They finished 10-7, narrowly making the playoffs mostly without Lamar Jackson due to injury. After a long offseason of contract negotiations, Lamar is back, and making 52 million. Baltimore added OBJ and Nelson Agholor, along with a healthy J.K. Dobbins and Mark Andrews giving Lamar the most support he’s had in his career. Reports from training camp have been overwhelmingly positive, and there’s a noticeable buzz surrounding the team, unlike in previous years. Additionally, their schedule appears to be one of the easiest in the league, which presents a manageable path to 11 wins. A healthy, confident, and determined Lamar should strike fear into every team in the league. Expecting 11 wins is not an unrealistic goal for Baltimore; it should be considered a reasonable expectation. Anticipate the Ravens to start strong, build momentum, and reach that win mark.

This pick offers great value at plus money. The upcoming season feels like a now-or-never moment for the Bengals. They came within a field goal of reaching the Super Bowl last season, following their previous season’s Super Bowl birth. Cincinnati is essentially keeping the same core team intact, and they have also added LT Orlando Brown and underrated TE Irv Smith Jr. These additions have only improved their roster. Despite the AFC being filled with talent and competition, the Bengals are among the top contenders. Joe Burrow currently holds the second shortest odds to win MVP, trailing only Mahomes. He, along with the rest of the offense, seems poised for another outstanding year, supported by a solid defense. With 12 wins last season, they have further improved and should be even more determined. We believe the Bengals will exceed expectations, reach their over on wins, and make a strong playoff run.

The Lions surprised many last season, pulling off nine victories narrowly missing the playoffs when most expected no more than five or six wins. This success can be attributed to three main factors. Firstly, Jared Goff had a bounce-back year and put up impressive numbers, ranking in the top eight in yards, touchdowns, interceptions, and QBR. However, given Goff’s inconsistency throughout his career, it’s uncertain if we can expect the same level of performance from him again. While he may have occasional flashes of brilliance, a repeat season is doubtful. Secondly, Detroit secured five division wins last season, which was the second-highest number behind Kansas City and San Francisco, who both swept their respective divisions. However, it’s unrealistic to expect the same outcome this year. The Bears are expected to improve, the Packers will likely be more consistent, and the Vikings are a playoff team.

Thirdly, the highly successful backfield duo of Jamall Williams and De’Andre Swift will not be together in 2023, as rookie Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery take over. Additionally, the addition of DB CJ Gardner-Johnson will provide some help, but it remains uncertain if the Lions have actually improved this offseason. Considering these three significant factors that are all at risk this season, it seems that Detroit will need some luck to come close to their projected win total. With that being said, getting this at plus money is huge.

For the most part, I would steer away from the AFC East win totals. It is a three-way race for the division crown, and while there are favorites, no one really knows where it’s headed. However, at practically even odds, this might just be too much value to pass up on. Miami went 9-8 last season, but with a harder schedule and an extremely tough division, combined with the AFC being the most talented it’s been in years, it is hard to see the Dolphins exceeding last season’s performance. Miami’s big offseason acquisition came in Jalen Ramsey, and they added Mike White as an option due to Tua’s injury concerns. With the Jets and Bills both improving significantly this offseason, the Dolphins could be left in the dust.  They have playmakers on both sides of the ball, no question, but can they stay healthy enough? Do they have the experience to put together a double-digit win season? We aren’t sure. They showed flashes last season but also revealed the true colors of an inexperienced team. Taking the under here is the safest bet in this division and provides good value all around.

The Cardinals’ 2022 campaign was disastrous. They finished with 4-13 and to make matters worse, their franchise QB Kyler Murray suffered a torn ACL in week 14. The Kliff Kingsbury experiment turned out to be a failure, resulting in both him and former GM Steve Keim being relieved of their duties. Additionally, the Cardinals decided to part ways with key performers Deandre Hopkins, Markus Golden, and Rodney Hudson.

This has all the looks of an obvious tanking situation for Arizona. Considering Kyler’s expected absence until the middle of the season at best, it’s difficult to envision them performing any better than last season. Although Arizona looks to have a promising draft class, it’s not enough. There’s a sense that Monti Ossenfort and the rest of the Cardinals’ front office are already strategizing how to seize the opportunity of Caleb Williams.