NFL Futures: AFC East Preview & Best Bet

Over the past decade and more, the AFC East has lacked competitiveness, with one team usually dominating the division. The New England Patriots had an extraordinary run of dominance, winning 17 out of 18 division titles from 2003-2019. However, since Tom Brady’s departure, the Buffalo Bills have taken over, finishing first in the division for the past three seasons. In 2023, the AFC East is as talented and competitive as it has been in a while, with two playoff teams probable and the potential of a third. Last season, there were two weeks where all four teams were in the playoffs if the season had ended at that time, showcasing the competitiveness. The 2022 season concluded with the Bills winning the division, followed by the Dolphins, Patriots, and Jets.

Here is our predictions for how the AFC East will play out in 2023

The Bills possess one of the most complete rosters in the NFL, supported by a strong coaching staff. They have a perennial MVP candidate in Josh Allen and a talented offensive weapon in Stefon Diggs, while their defense, which features All-Pro players at all levels, allowed the second-fewest points per game (17.9) last season. Although the rest of the division seems to have caught up, the Bills are determined to maintain their lead. Both the Jets and Dolphins fan bases are confident and vocal, which only motivates the Bills players further. Josh Allen and coach Sean McDermott are eager to prove that they haven’t reached their peak yet. The Bills made the necessary off-season moves to elevate their game and compete in this competitive version of the AFC East. While they might not dominate the division as they did last season, they should still come out on top.

The Jets are the wild card in the division. They now have the talent and experience to compete with any team, but there are still concerns in some areas. The first seven games of the season will be crucial for the Jets, as it is their toughest stretch by far. If they can navigate through it with at least a 4-3 record, they will be in a good position to make a playoff run. If their defense performs at the same level as last season and if Aaron Rodgers is himself and motivated, the Jets could give the Bills a serious run for their money. With this roster, the excitement around the Jets is as intense as it’s been since 2010.

The Dolphins started last season as one of the hottest teams in the NFL but faded towards the end due to various reasons, primarily injuries. They managed to limp into the playoffs with a 9-8 record. However, assuming Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy, the Dolphins should improve this year. Miami bolstered their already strong secondary by adding Jalen Ramsey, giving Rodgers and Allen more to think about. The main concerns for Miami are their lack of experience and injury issues. Both the coaching staff and the players have limited experience in putting together a successful full season. With Tua’s injury history, it’s uncertain how many games he will be able to play. If Tua can play the majority of the games, the Dolphins have a good chance to finish on top. 

For the first time in years, the Patriots are predicted to finish last in the division. There are doubts and concerns surrounding Mac Jones, their third-year quarterback, who took a step backward in his sophomore campaign along with the rest of the team. Coming off their second losing season in three years, the Patriots made some significant moves in free agency, adding JuJu Smith-Schuster, Riley Reiff, and Mike Gesicki, as well as hiring Bill O’Brien to run the offense. While they may not be as strong as the other three AFC East teams, the Patriots are not to be underestimated. They have a strong presence in the trenches, and you can always expect a Bill Belichick defense to hold its own. Regardless of how the roster looks on paper, the Patriots will be competitive, and finishing around .500 is likely. However, given the competitiveness of this division, .500 could mean a last-place finish.

I predict that the division will unfold as the oddsmakers have predicted, with the Bills finishing on top once again. However, the AFC East is a true three-team race and could go in any direction. The Bills are receiving a lot of bulletin board material from the rest of the AFC East, and that should fuel their motivation. Betting on the Bills to win the division is the safest choice in the AFC East.