Patrick Mahomes’ resume speaks for itself, and Kansas City has been in the NFL’s elite in his five years in the league. Justin Herbert has had a strong two years with the Los Angeles Chargers and is poised to really break out in year three.
Denver is following the Los Angeles Rams’ blueprint from a year ago: leverage the future (by way of draft picks) to trade for an elite quarterback. Russell Wilson combined with the Broncos’ defense could be a force, and the Las Vegas Raiders have Derek Carr back after they reached the playoffs a season ago.
With such a competitive division and being paired against the NFC West (which sent three teams to the playoffs in 2021), something has to give, so let’s analyze each team’s schedule to determine who will be going over their predicted win total and who might fall short.
Despite having won at least 12 games in each of the past five years, the Chiefs’ over/under number going into 2022 stands at 10.5. The reasons for the drop are two-fold. One, the Chiefs’ offense has a question mark since it will be without Tyreek Hill after the star wide receiver was traded to Miami (the team signed JuJu Smith-Schuster to replace him). Second, the AFC West has improved from a year ago.
The Chiefs barely survived not being swept by the Chargers last year, but they did end up 5-1 in the division by going 4-0 against Las Vegas and Denver. In fact, the Chiefs have won 13 in a row over Denver, but with Russell Wilson piloting the Broncos, they now have an offense to match their strong defense, which could spell trouble for the Chiefs. Let’s assume 4-2 in the division.
Along with playing strong division teams, the Chiefs have a very difficult schedule against the rest of the league’s teams–especially early. They play at Arizona, Indianapolis, and Tampa Bay in the first four weeks. After Buffalo visits KC in Week 6, the Chiefs then play the 49ers in San Francisco before their bye.
There is also a brutal four-week stretch in November and December that has an away game at the Chargers, home against the Super Bowl champion Rams, at AFC champion Cincinnati, and at Denver for the teams’ first meeting. Things lighten up a little with games at Houston and vs. Seattle, then KC finishes the year vs. Denver and at Las Vegas.
It all leads up to the hardest schedule in the NFL. We see the Chiefs getting through the first seven weeks at 5-2, which puts them on track for 11 or 12 wins. But if KC stumbles to a 4-3 or worse start, a bet on the over could be in trouble in a hurry.
Prediction: Over 10.5 Wins
Expectations are again high in Los Angeles, as quarterback Justin Herbert enters his third year, and that has meant a jump to greatness for several quarterbacks (most recently, Josh Allen). But where LA fell into trouble last year after losing three of their final four games and narrowly missing the playoffs was on the defensive side of the ball. The Chargers gave up at least 28 points in those three losses and ranked 30th in the NFL in points allowed at 27 per game.
A solid core of Joey Bosa, Derwin James, and Asante Samuel Jr. was bolstered by the addition of Khalil Mack via trade and cornerback J.C. Jackson was signed along with Kyle Van Noy, Austin Johnson, and Bryce Callahan. So one cannot say that the Bolts didn’t address the defensive issues from a year ago.
After division games against the Raiders at home and at Kansas City to start, chances for plenty of wins are available against the likes of Jacksonville, Houston, Seattle, and Cleveland (who will likely be without Deshaun Watson at that early point in the season). We see the Bolts charging out to a 7-2 start when they host Kansas City in Week 11.
The last four games (vs. Tennessee, at Indianapolis, vs. LA Rams, at Denver) could be difficult, but we forecast the Chargers to stand at nine wins going into that closing stretch, so a 2-2 finish would put them over the total of 10.
Prediction: Over 10 Wins
Denver built a great defense under fired head coach Vic Fangio (third in the NFL with 18.9 points allowed per game), but Fangio (and other coaches before him) were fired because the Broncos could not get the quarterback position right for years after the retirement of Peyton Manning.
After hiring former Green Bay assistant Nathaniel Hackett, the Broncos were hopeful that Aaron Rodgers would leave the Packers. But after he decided to stay put, Denver enacted plan B, trading for Russell Wilson. The problem we see is that Wilson doesn’t have a player like D.K. Metcalf or Tyler Lockett to throw to. Can Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy step up under the tutelage of the former Super Bowl champion? Sure, but we’re not quite sold.
Due to the Broncos’ last place finish from a year ago, they have the good fortune to play the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers this season, and their schedule also features Seattle and Houston in the first two weeks. Our bold prediction is that Denver starts 5-0 against a winnable slate before falling in Week 6 at the Chargers. A home game against the Jets is next, followed by a trip to London to face the Jaguars. That means 7-1 or 6-2 is very possible by the bye week.
The only problem with the Broncos is the end of the schedule. The final three games are at the Rams, at the Chiefs, and home against the Chargers. It’s very possible the Broncos could stand at nine or 10 wins before that last difficult stretch.
Prediction: Push (10 Wins)
The Raiders had a tumultuous 2021 season that saw the in-season firing of Jon Gruden and the arrest and subsequent release of wide receiver Henry Ruggs after he was suspected of killing someone while driving drunk, but they railled around interim coach Rich Bisaccia and made the playoffs for just the second time since appearing in Super Bowl 37 after the 2002 season.
There was a groundswell in the locker room to make Bisaccia the new head coach, but the job went to former Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Derek Carr, who should benefit from that offensive mind coming in, also gets a boost by being able to throw to Davante Adams after Las Vegas traded for the former Packers star. The Raiders defense, however, was 26th in points allowed, and that could be a problem in a strong offensive division this year.
The schedule has three difficult road games among Las Vegas’s first five games: at the Chargers, at Tennessee, and at Kansas City before a Week 6 bye. The Raiders were just 5-4 at home last year, so a stumble against Arizona or Denver isn’t out of the question either, so Vegas could find themselves at 1-4 early.
The middle part of the schedule isn’t bad, so we have the Raiders at 5-6 going into a December 4 home game against the Chargers that will be a big one. Games against the Rams and New England follow. Week 16 at Pittsburgh should be winnable, and then the slate finishes at home against San Francisco and Kansas City.
This is a tough one to predict, but if the Raiders go 4-2 during that final stretch, they can overcome a bad start and still end up at 9-8, barely going over the projected win total.
Prediction: Over 8.5 Wins
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